New Cold War

[Happy Times]

Cheney chides Russia on democracy

US Vice President Dick Cheney has accused Russia of backsliding on democracy and using its vast energy resources to blackmail its neighbours.

He said Moscow had a choice to make between pursuing democratic reforms and reversing the gains of the past decade.

Mr Cheney's comments - one of the sharpest US rebukes to Russia in years - came at an eastern European regional summit in Lithuania's capital, Vilnius.

Russia rejected Mr Cheney's remarks as "completely incomprehensible".

"The speech of Mr Cheney in our opinion is full of a subjective evaluation of us and of the processes that are going on in Russia," said presidential deputy spokesman Dmitri Peskov, quoted by Reuters news agency.

Cheney's warning

Addressing the Vilnius conference, Mr Cheney said Russia had "nothing to fear and everything to gain from strong stable democracies on its borders".


He warned that opponents of reforms in Russia "were seeking to reverse the gains of the last decade" by restricting democratic rights.

"In many areas of civil society - from religion and the news media, to advocacy groups and political parties - the government has unfairly and improperly restricted the rights of the people," Mr Cheney said.

But he said "none of us believes that Russia is fated to become an enemy".

Mr Cheney also said that "other actions by the Russian government have been counter-productive, and could begin to affect relations with other countries.

"No legitimate interest is served when oil and gas become tools of intimidation or blackmail, either by supply manipulation, or attempts to monopolise transportation," he added.

Russia drew international criticism after briefly turning off its gas taps to Ukraine in January, in a row that disrupted supplies to Europe.

A number of Russian politician have said that the US policy of promoting democracy in the republics of the former Soviet Union is really a tool to establish Washington as the dominant power in the region.

In Vilnius, Mr Cheney also condemned the Belarussian government, describing it as a dictatorship which forced its people to live in a climate of fear.

'Imperial nostalgia'

The conference is discussing how Nato and the European Union can support democratic and security reforms as they continue to expand eastwards into Russia's historical sphere of influence.

The presidents of Ukraine, Georgia, Romania, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are attending the conference, sharing their experience of building democracy since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili accused Russian politicians of "imperial nostalgia".

"Political forces in Moscow actively work to undermine our economies, our sovereignty, and even our system of governance," he said. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4972464.stm

[Happy Times]

Russian analysts, media see Cheney's speech as opening shot in new Cold War

Saturday, May 06, 2006
By Vladimir Isachenkov, The Associated Press

MOSCOW -- Russian media yesterday described Vice President Dick Cheney's harsh criticism of Russia and President Vladimir Putin as the start of a new Cold War.

Mr. Cheney's words Thursday at a conference in Lithuania drew a comparison to Winston Churchill's famed "Iron Curtain" speech and reflected the deepening distrust between Washington and a newly assertive Kremlin.

The official Russian response to Mr. Cheney's speech has been cautious. But angry reaction from politicians and pundits allied with the Kremlin reflects a chill between two presidents who seemed to have hit it off early in their relationship.

In his speech, Mr. Cheney accused Russia of cracking down on religious and political rights and of using its energy reserves as "tools of intimidation or blackmail." Opponents of reform in Russia, the vice president said, "are seeking to reverse the gains of the last decade" after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet empire.

There was no public reaction from Mr. Putin or the government.

But the prominent business daily Kommersant said Mr. Cheney's comments marked "the beginning of a second Cold War" and harked back to Mr. Churchill's speech condemning Soviet expansionism in Eastern Europe with the "Iron Curtain" label that defined the East-West divide for decades.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov refrained from criticizing Mr. Cheney but condemned the meeting in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, which brought together the pro-Western leaders of former Soviet republics on the Baltic and Black seas.

"Over the past years, many forums have been created that reflect the desire of the respective states ... to pool their efforts to achieve common benefits," Mr. Lavrov said. "But there are forums that create an impression ... that they are convened ... for the sake of uniting against someone."

Mr. Cheney's criticism -- some of Washington's toughest language -- came two months before President Bush is to join Mr. Putin in St. Petersburg for a summit of the Group of Eight industrial powers.

"The speech effectively eliminates the vestiges of strategic partnership between Russia and the United States. And if U.S. President George W. Bush confirms the stance, the idea can be buried," said pro-Kremlin political analyst Gleb Pavlovsky, the Interfax news agency reported.

Many Russian commentators said the venue for Mr. Cheney's speech -- Lithuania, a nation struggling to recover from a half-century of Soviet domination -- has made the blow more painful for Russia.

"By attending the forum, the United States has sent a message to Russia and those countries: 'We aren't leaving, we consider the region part of our sphere of interests,' " Liliya Shevtsova of the Carnegie Endowment's Moscow office said.

"In a situation when Russia is trying to reclaim the role of a regional and global superpower, such a message has drawn a strong concern in Moscow."

Moscow complains that the United States and other Western countries are encroaching on its traditional sphere of influence, while the West accuses the Kremlin of bullying its neighbors, using energy as a weapon. Russia's state-controlled natural gas monopoly, Gazprom, has sharply increased prices for gas supplies to Ukraine, Georgia and other Westward-looking ex-Soviet nations in what is seen in the West as a political move.

A bitter price dispute with Ukraine led to a brief halt of Russian gas supplies to Western Europe. Gazprom's strong-arming of Ukraine combined with its push for a stake in gas distribution in Western European nations have encouraged fears of Russian domination and prompted the European Union to rethink its reliance on energy imports from Russia. http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06126/687958-82.stm

[Happy Times]

I was pleased to see that US goverment holds true to its values in a time when it has many things to consider in its foreign policy. Cheneys statement really was more about what is the right thing to do, and from that every US citizen should be proud of.

[CCIP]

That was from a few days ago :hmm:

Frankly, I hate to defend the Russian government (maybe I should even just say "I hate the Russian government" ), but Yuschenko and Saakashvili are full of it. Russia wants them to be more in line with it? Of course! You want cheap energy, you should probably expect that Russia will want you to be more friendly to them. I just fail to see what's wrong with it. Russia owes Georgia and Ukraine absolutely nothing. Nada. Zero. If they feel so mighty and independent, let them get their own energy. Otherwise, deal reasonably and don't try to politically stab a key economic partner.

It may be unfortunate, but this is what I call the fate of small nations. You either respect the larger powers around you, or you find alternatives. If they want to find alternatives, they better find them reasonably. American politicians talk well and give political support, but it's extremely naive of Ukraine or Georgia to assume they'll get bailed out by these guys economically. In fact, both the US and Europe have been very reluctant to make any concessions to either, and with their own economic problems to deal with - it's quite stupid to try and look to two powers in economic decline for salvation, when you have a growing Russian economy on your borders (growing wonderfully, in fact, partly thanks to mistakes the West has made, e.g. Iraq).

Frankly, I'm unimpressed with Saakashvili and Yuschenko to start with. Yuschenko sits atop a very questionable mandate, and can't be brought to face a massive division of interests within his country. It's very unfair to assume that there isn't a legitimate and rather democratic concern coming out of more "Russia-friendly" eastern Ukraine. Saakashvili has denied national claims of both Abkhazia and Adjaria, de-facto nations without real political rights that are formally still within Georgia, and has no right to point to Russia for nationalist ambitions because his aren't any less presumptions, and far more openly arrogant.

It's too early right now to talk about where Russia is headed since we have no idea who will be president in 2008. Not to say I expect a change of power, but it will be a good indication of where things are headed, and they're probably headed nowhere good.

That said, you have to give Putin's government credit for stabilizing the economy, and I've no doubt that his successor will be well-supported. Russians wouldn't take anyone else in these circumstances, simple as that - you can promise them democratic heavens and great political freedom, and they'll pelt you with rotten tomatoes if you don't offer them stability first. And noone has as yet.

As for Dick, well... Dick.

[Happy Times]

It may be unfortunate, but this is what I call the fate of small nations. You either respect the larger powers around you, or you find alternatives. If they want to find alternatives, they better find them reasonably.

It is just this mindset that brings Russias neighbours towards the EU and US.

[Skybird]

It's all chess, and improving strategic potentials for the future conflicts.

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by Happy Times

It is just this mindset that brings Russias neighbours towards the EU and US.

OK. That's not a mindset, that's a fact.

Note some of the additions I made above - and what are the EU and the US offering Ukraine and Georgia? Are you willing to pay your money, or perhaps even your jobs, to help put the average Ukrainian or Georgian on their feet?

The fact is that both Ukraine and Georgia are bad apples for the EU or the US to pick, and the US's one and only interest in them is as pointed sticks against Russia. Neither is particularly democratic, good on their human rights record, or anything but a financial disaster with a flag and anthem.

I've no doubt the Cold War is continuing in some sense, and I've no doubt Russians have ambitions. But my view is that, as with the last one, the West isn't any less responsible for causing it than the "East".

It's all chess, and improving strategic potentials for the future conflicts.

Precisely :hmm:

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Happy Times

It is just this mindset that brings Russias neighbours towards the EU and US.

Stay away from the EU. Well-meant advise from me. It has become worse than a mental asylum. We will need to pay a high rpice for that. No need that you join us in that. Your economical and educational policies are obviously superior to most of Europe's Why compromise that?

[Happy Times]

• OK. That's not a mindset, that's a fact.
  
  Note some of the additions I made above - and what are the EU and the US offering Ukraine and Georgia? Are you willing to pay your money, or perhaps even your jobs, to help put the average Ukrainian or Georgian on their feet?

  They are being offered the oportunity to become part of family of democracies, its all about peace and properity over nationalism and war. The EU has allready taken and is taking in every ex soviet satellite or colony, if it was only about money it wouldnt have happened.

  The fact is that both Ukraine and Georgia are bad apples for the EU or the US to pick, and the US's one and only interest in them is as pointed sticks against Russia.

  There are also other neighbour states that Russia has threatened or pressured, but what have these two did against Russia ? What do you ment by saying they are sticks pointed against Russia?

  I've no doubt the Cold War is continuing in some sense, and I've no doubt Russians have ambitions. But my view is that, as with the last one, the West isn't any less responsible for causing it than the "East".

  You say Russia has ambitions, what kind? Territorial? Wonder how its Wests fault if these countries flock for cover..

[Happy Times]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Stay away from the EU. Well-meant advise from me. It has become worse than a mental asylum. We will need to pay a high rpice for that. No need that you join us in that. Your economical and educational policies are obviously superior to most of Europe's Why compromise that?

Hmmm, its too late. :rotfl: http://www.government.fi/eu/suomi-ja-eu/en.jsp

[Skybird]

Oh. :rotfl:

[Sea Demon]

Originally Posted by Happy Times

I was pleased to see that US goverment holds true to its values in a time when it has many things to consider in its foreign policy. Cheneys statement really was more about what is the right thing to do, and from that every US citizen should be proud of.

Well said. I was proud of this statement as well. Russia's buttons need to be pushed a little bit right now into doing the right things.

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by Happy Times

They are being offered the oportunity to become part of family of democracies, its all about peace and properity over nationalism and war. The EU has allready taken and is taking in every ex soviet satellite or colony, if it was only about money it wouldnt have happened.

Firstly, you have to distinguish between the Baltic states and the others. The Baltic states, fortunately, have a different history and are much better prepared for it.

Otherwise, the "family of democracies" sounds excellent. Except, as it is to most Russians, it's all empty words. As is "war", "prosperity", and the rest. This is not what this is about for most people. The average Ukranian wants a job. A good-paying job, at that. If the EU can't give him a job, what's democracy to this poor guy? And there's plenty of people without a job in the EU.

There are also other neighbour states that Russia has threatened or pressured, but what have these two did against Russia ? What do you ment by saying they are sticks pointed against Russia?

This is purely political. Much the same extends to the other states.

The fact is that Russia, while it exists, is going to be a big and ambitious state, and in the current circumstances it's again shaping up to be a significant economic power - and with economic power come other types of power.

Naturally, the West is eager to do what they can to put barriers to Russian power in the region. Now put yourself in Russia's position and ask "Why should I like this?". There's no reason, in fact.

You say Russia has ambitions, what kind? Territorial? Wonder how its Wests fault if these countries flock for cover..

No, territorial ambitions in the modern world come last. Economic ambitions are first, and Russia clearly wants room to manuever. A Ukraine and Georgia that DON'T ask for gas at prices of several times below market value would be a start for what Russia wants. Political ambitions come second. At the most extreme edge, Russia would be happy to be surrounded by states ruled by a bunch of Lukashenko clones. I'm not saying that's nice, but I am saying that's a satisfactory solution for Russia.

And so? The EU and the US ambitions are also economic and political in nature. And, quite rightly, they're seen as hostile to Russia by virtue of denying her ambitions in the same way as Russia denies the West's (in that region at least; and to Russia, you have to acknowledge that the region is more vital than to the other side). It's all a chess game, as Skybird said.

As for territorial ambitions, ask who eastern Ukraine voted for, and what his stance on Russia is, and you might be surprised. For all real purposes, eastern Ukraine - instead of being wonderfully raised to democratic prosperity - has been completely sidelined.

Bottom line: there are bigger and more real forces at play here than Western ideology of a "prosperous family of democratic states". Spare me the stock phraseology, and tell me how an unemployed guy in Kiev is supposed to feed his family on democracy. Because the EU or the US isn't going to pay for it.

[Happy Times]

Il have to take a breather before i comment...

[CCIP]

Just as a disclaimer, don't label me as a "commie" or even a supporter of the Russian government. As I said before, I'm not, that's why I'm here in the West and not there - because I detest the way they do things there. I'm merely analyzing the situation from a pragmatic standpoint, and using my sense of the Russian view on things.

The fact is that things are very bad for the average person, in Ukraine, Georgia and Russia alike. And the fact is that the West isn't getting at the root of the problem by sowing unrest in the region. I will say that the real fault of the West is not protecting its political interests now, but failing to do anything to encourage a better reconstruction in Russia when the time was right - and now it's past that time. I think this is because Russia as a nation is distrusted and disdained - and alas, it doesn't have to be.

The fact is that the US and the EU watched as Russia's "democracy" decayed in economic collapse (which killed real liberal democratic elements log ago), and chuckled seeing their old enemy lose their economic status. But now that collapse is gone, along with actual democracy, and look what happens. :hmm: