11 chilling predictions for what the world will look like in 10 years

[mapuc]

It's not the first time such a "prediction" have been released, throughout the last 5 or 10 years, I wonder how many of these have come true.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a6851221.html

In 2015, private-intelligence firm Strategic Forecasting, or Stratfor, published its Decade Forecast, in which it projects the next 10 years of global political and economic developments

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Russia will collapse and the US may need to send in ground troops to secure the Russian nuclear stockpiles.

I seriously doubt that, more like wishful thinking on the part of Stratfor I suspect

[Oberon]

Yeah, I don't see a collapse in Russia any time soon. I mean I can't rule it out completely, but I don't think it's that likely.

[Jimbuna]

Well, I appreciate the list is only predictions but I'm struggling to see any of them coming to fruition.

[Reece]

What a load of hooey!!

[Wolferz]

It's like weather forecasting.
Not an exact science.

Or divination.
Only as good as your crystal ball.

[Aktungbby]

Hey what about CA seceding from the Union! http://www.businessinsider.com/calexit-explainer-california-plans-to-secede-2016-11

As the sixth-largest economy in the world, California is more economically powerful than France and has a population larger than Poland. Point by point, California compares and competes with countries, not just the 49 other states," Yes California wrote in a statement. Louis Marinelli, an outspoken political activist and president of Yes California, envisions California as a sovereign entity within the US, much like Scotland in the United Kingdom:

Really the best idea I've heard in awhile!

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Well, I appreciate the list is only predictions but I'm struggling to see any of them coming to fruition.

Actually, I think the Russian one is probably the only one I'd say that doesn't stand a chance.

Germany is likely going to wind up struggling in the new world order, especially if the trend towards protectionism continues. That struggle is going to manifest itself in growing civilian unrest, which will be exacerbated by the dearth of political heavyweights in the current coalition meaning that it's really coming down to Merkel or the AfD, and that's a bit like Trump vs Clinton, it's the establishment versus radical change, with the added complication that AfD has some heavy right-wing baggage in a country which is haunted by the Nazis.
Ok, Poland is a difficult one, maybe they will, maybe they won't...I could certainly see them taking the lead in some form of unofficial Eastern European coalition if western Europe goes into isolationism mode and the EU starts to wobble.
The four Europes I can definitely see, especially if Le Pen doesn't get into the French elections, Germany and France will do their best to salvage what they can of the EU, the UK will be trying to get out of the EU but figure out where exactly it needs to be in the world, Eastern Europe will be trying to figure out whether to stand up to Moscow or befriend it, and Scandinavia...will be Scandinavia. I can foresee the same sort of nationalist movements gaining some traction up there, but I don't know if they'd pull some Brexit level stuff.
Turkey and the US...another difficult one. The situation is plausible, but Erdogan is a real piece of work, so any attempts by the US to work with him will not be easy. Lately it has seemed that rather than try to stand up to Moscow, Turkey might actually be trying to befriend it. It probably sees that there's more in common with Putins Russia than the US or the EU, so that's one that I doubt will happen...but Trump in play makes it a harder decision, he could appeal to Erdogan as a strongman businessman, someone who will strike a deal. So those cards are still on the table.
China, yes, definitely and that's one that I've seen Stratfor putting out for a while and it's not being proven wrong so far. Things in China are coming to the boil, and if Trump does start a trade war with them, it could push things over the edge there which could make Beijing have to do some reckless things to pacify or take the publics minds off the collapsing economy. Something reckless like Taiwan.
Japan will definitely start to come back to the fore in the military of the Pacific, especially if Trump pursues a more isolationist foreign policy. There's already been movements within Japan to amend or remove Article 9 of the constitution which prohibits an offensive military force. If the US umbrella over the Pacific starts to get holes in it, then Japan will step up and it has the manufacturing ability to do it, and as the people who remember the surrender in 1945 die off, there's a whole generation of people who are not as anti-war as Japan was shaped to be in the aftermath of World War II. In fact, there's quite an underground nationalistic movement in Japan which could definitely come to the fore if it looked like they would have to defend themselves against China.
Yeah, I also think the South China Sea powderkeg isn't quite the Balkans that it first appears to be, whilst all the major powers in the region definitely want to stake their claims, I don't think that they're willing to go to war over that, not unless there's an internal benefit to gain by doing so.
I can't really comment on the mini-Chinas, but it seems feasible, Bangladesh is already doing great guns in the fabric manufacturing trade, although if the world moves from global trade into a more protectionist approach, that could slow the growth of exporting hubs, but ultimately people will always want cheap stuff, so it won't halt it I don't think.
US power will definitely decline, and I think that it's always lead this way. Just as our power declined in the aftermath of the First World War. Americans always hate imperialism, but the American century has been a sort of an empire, but with military bases and political sphere-ing instead of actual colonies. That empire is starting to buckle under the strain of the war on terror and the reluctance of people back home to flex that political power following Afghanistan and Iraq.
It does seem in the modern era that the lifespan of a dominant empire has greatly shortened. Rome lasted for centuries, the British empire for a couple of centuries, and the American empire for about a century, probably a bit closer to 70 years. I think it's to do with communications and infrastructure, as well as the pace of war. Things are a lot quicker now, life is a lot quicker now, and so the cycles of power move a lot quicker too.
I have no idea who the next person to pick up the torch as a major power will be though, I doubt it'll be Russia or China, they don't have the internal shielding to do that, once upon a time someone would have said that it'd be one of the 'BRIC's, but the 2008 crisis and rampant corruption has put the damper on a lot of that.
But honestly, I think that the US still has a way to go before it loses the top spot, but we're definitely entering a transition period, and those are always full of uncertainty and tension.

[GoldenRivet]

Nobody has a crystal ball. so take the list with a grain of salt. While i dont agree with the entire list, most of it makes sense

had you told me in October of 2001 that in ten years we would have a socialist leaning Hussein in the white house, would be streaming muslim refugees into the nation, people would be booing US Service members' families off of airliners, and domestic terrorists would be assassinating police officers in the streets, sometimes a half a dozen at a time... there's no way i would have believed you.

truth can often times be stranger than fiction

[Oberon]

I dunno, the whole domestic terrorists thing would probably be believed, after all the popular consensus in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 was that another massive terrorist attack on the scale of, or larger than 9/11 would happen 'any day now'.

[STEED]

10 years ago life was rubbish and 10 years on its still rubbish so in 10 years time it will remain rubbish.

[mapuc]

It was the "story" about Russia and Germany I thought could be interesting to share with my friends here in Subsim GT.

When it comes to Germany-I have absolutely no clue about their economical situation today or how it may look like in ten years from now.

Russia-When I read about this "story" two movies popped up in my head-The first was Crimson tide and the other was "...."..and how I learned to love the bomb with Peter Sellers. Why I thought of these movies-Well in case of a total breakdown in the Political circus in Kreml, there could be chance that some political or radical groups will try to get their hands on these missiles/ICBM. I presume there are special trained soldiers that have only one task-to protect those nuclear missiles/ICBM from falling into these groups.

Just a thought-I'm not an expert in how the military works around these missiles/ICBM-Only that there are people sitting deep underground ready to push the button and that in every country they have units that shall in case of war or similar, protect sensitive areas or equipment

Markus

[yubba]

Originally Posted by Oberon

I dunno, the whole domestic terrorists thing would probably be believed, after all the popular consensus in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 was that another massive terrorist attack on the scale of, or larger than 9/11 would happen 'any day now'.

what you scared ??? we had 7 cops killed in nine days,,, Trump stepped up and spoke ''crickets'' from the democrats

[yubba]

I bet in 10 years you would be hard pressed to find a democrat,, voted for dogcatcher,,, and if we chose to give illegals legal status they shouldn't be able to vote for 12 years a small price to pay..

[Buddahaid]

Originally Posted by Aktungbby

Really the best idea I've heard in awhile!

Hear, hear!