Why Russia Protects Assad

[kraznyi_oktjabr]

I found this interesting blog post which explains Russia's motives in protecting Syrian government. Keep in mind that its a blog post not a news article. It is written by Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg of Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies in Harvard University.

[Molon Labe]

One of my favorite strategy blogs.

[Skybird]

Just adding that the Syrian civil war - I call it that - also is a proxy war between Turkey and Iran, with Turkey supporting the opposition, and Iran supporting Syria.

Strange how fast Turkey has switched sides. Just two years ago Assad and Erdghan were closest buddies, with Erdoghan saying Assad is impossible to do anything wrong because as a Muslim he is impossible to do something wrong. Circular logic, eh?

I recommend to stay out there and not to support any side. The opposition is anything but democratic and liberal , but also gets massively financed and suzpported by Salafist movements, and ultra-conservative circles from Saudi Arabia and Quatar (not the official goivernments - these again have different interests, with Saudis and Turks banging heads over dominance in the region as well. It's always so damn complicated down there).

And for Israel, a Syria with Assad is preferrable, too - they know what stability in threat situation they have with him. With the opposition coming to power, the threat indicator for Israel once again would climb, after recent concerns over Egypt and Tunisia and the confrontations with Turkey.

However, I think Assad in the long run cannot survive.

Just two years ago Assad and Erdghan were closest buddies, with Erdoghan saying Assad is impossible to do anything wrong because as a Muslim he is impossible to do something wrong.

If as you always say Erdoghan is a fundamentalist flavour of the sunni persuation then Assad can only be described by him as a heretic from an unmuslim offshoot of a heretical sect.
Then again Sky does have a habit of taking what Erdohan says and doing a chicken little without even knowing what the sky is.

Circular logic, eh?

From the master of circular logic and "rational" thought.

I found this interesting blog post

Russia is doing the same stuff all the other big 5 do, they just see Syria as their pie.
It should be condemned as equally as when any of the other world powers do it.

[the_tyrant]

Originally Posted by Tribesman

If as you always say Erdoghan is a fundamentalist flavour of the sunni persuation then Assad can only be described by him as a heretic from an unmuslim offshoot of a heretical sect.
Then again Sky does have a habit of taking what Erdohan says and doing a chicken little without even knowing what the sky is.


From the master of circular logic and "rational" thought.

Stop with the ad hominem attacks man, we are her to debate the merits of the article, not the merits of skybird

[kranz]

Originally Posted by the_tyrant

the merits of skybird

you must be kidding...

[Seth8530]

Originally Posted by kranz

you must be kidding...

Seriously, common, can we not be nice?

I rarely agree with ya sky, but I feel like Russia is supporting Syria out of nothing more than to stick the finger to the US. And who can blame them? Russia is one the greatest countries in the world and up untill recently they have been eating cake since the end of the cold war. I doubt any country would take to that very kindly.

Stop with the ad hominem attacks man

If somone wants to paint erdogan as an extremist sunni fundamentalist then it is fully on topic to attack the statement when that person then claims he loves an Aklawite for being a true believer.
The sensible approach would be "Erdogan is a pillock, even for a politician he is a bloody idiot, you wouldn't believe how dumb his last statement was" ....not ...."OMG beware the erdogan he has a plan and is coming to get us, you can tell by what he said look look (but please don't look as that upsets me and undermines my arguement)".

you must be kidding...

Be fair, he does write some good stuff, some very good stuff...just that when it relates to muslims or immigrants or europe or eugenics in any remote way he tends to go way off with the fairies in lala land.

[Type941]

business interests behind something.. shocking.

I heard same thing - that opposition in syria is no picnic either but the STUPID media portrays them as poor fighters for democracy, further tainting the word.

I can only imagine how paranoid Israel is feeling... it's like you're in a club a brawl is starting to break out around you. Not nice especially since Israel is the only sober one in the room.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Type941

business interests behind something.. shocking.

I heard same thing - that opposition in syria is no picnic either but the STUPID media portrays them as poor fighters for democracy, further tainting the word.

I can only imagine how paranoid Israel is feeling... it's like you're in a club a brawl is starting to break out around you. Not nice especially since Israel is the only sober one in the room.

Well, ther eis one benefit, and that is that Syria was the shadow int he background in Lrebanon, and with syria now being busy with itself, Iran, to which Syria is amcloose ally,m finds it a bit harder to smuggle weapons to Lebanon-staged terror-organisation Hezbollah, even more, Hezbollah is trying to find a new headquarter, since Lebanon wiothout Syrian backing no longer looks like a safe harbour for them.

If - and that is still a ver ybig "if" - Hezbollah would need to give up Lebanon, it loses a basis that in the past 5 years has been turned into a hardened bunker with plenty of underground shlters and lots of missiles stockpiles that are a primary headache for Israel. It would also weaken Iran's stand in the region. Remember, I said: "if".

[soopaman2]

I am of a simpler ilk.

They do it to undermine America, them and China.

Not saying they are wrong, but there is nothing complex about this, they seek war with us eventually, and will gladly use our enemies against us, as well as our own international governing body (that the US pays a majority of, money and troop wise [UN]) as a pawn.

The world lets it happen, they are all just happy it is us and not them, one day it will be them...

[August]

Originally Posted by Skybird

If - and that is still a ver ybig "if" - Hezbollah would need to give up Lebanon, it loses a basis that in the past 5 years has been turned into a hardened bunker with plenty of underground shlters and lots of missiles stockpiles that are a primary headache for Israel. It would also weaken Iran's stand in the region. Remember, I said: "if".

Well at least "if" is better than "impossible" which is encouraging.

[Type941]

The more I read about this "opposition" in Syria the more I'm alarmed. These guys have been basically given a green light to overthrow Assad from AlQaida now. What?!

[Schroeder]

Originally Posted by soopaman2

I am of a simpler ilk.

They do it to undermine America, them and China.

Not saying they are wrong, but there is nothing complex about this, they seek war with us eventually, and will gladly use our enemies against us, as well as our own international governing body (that the US pays a majority of, money and troop wise [UN]) as a pawn.

The world lets it happen, they are all just happy it is us and not them, one day it will be them...

I think that's wrong. The economies of the USA, China and Russia are so intertwined and depending on each other that no side has any interest in going to war with the other.

[kraznyi_oktjabr]

Originally Posted by Schroeder

I think that's wrong. The economies of the USA, China and Russia are so intertwined and depending on each other that no side has any interest in going to war with the other.

I agree with this in part of Russia and China. What comes to United States I don't know. They have gone to war with "intelligence" which quality have been terrible (remember Iraq and WMD?) and their military industry needs conflict (or atleast threat of) somewhere to sell their products.