Two Koreas 'at a turning point' says South president

Jimbuna · 01-02-12, 01:09 PM

I doubt we'll witness much if any change

Quote:

The Korean peninsula is at a "turning point" and there are opportunities for change, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak said in a new year speech.

On Sunday North Korea told citizens to defend leader Kim Jong-un to the death.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16380918

STEED · 01-02-12, 01:24 PM

Change my rump, it's business as usual in the North.

Jimbuna · 01-02-12, 01:46 PM

I thought tou were Luton area darn sarf

Platapus · 01-02-12, 09:02 PM

Change will come slowly to North Korea.

Kim Jong Un (KJU) is not only a full generation removed from Kim Il Sung (KIS), KJU actually spent very little time with KIS. KJU spent most of his early life out of the country in school. The cultural and spiritual connection with KIS will not be as strong as with Kim Jong Il (KJI). KJU will still be honoured and will have many high ranking titles, but more of the running of the country will fall to others.

In a culture that values the elderly, KJU's age (at 28 he is the youngest head of state in the world) will further push him in a position of being a revered figurehead, but little actual power. KJI was 53 when he assumed power. It is also important to recognize that KJI has considerable political experience up to the death of KIS. KJU has relatively little.

It is popular myth to consider North Korea to be run solely by one person. The reality is far from that. There is considerable political rivalry and much of the power rests with official and unofficial cohorts amongst powerful and experienced politicians and military officers.

Looking at my crystal ball, I envision a period of increased rhetoric on the part of KJU and the North Korean government aimed at convincing the North Koreans that things are continuing as before but then after a year or two, deals with South Korea and China will be made.. perhaps clandestinely.

KJI was, domestically, a failed leader. Where KIS was able to use Juche for success, KJI continued the philosophy of Juche but had very few successes. The fact that KJI was the son of KIS, gave KJI a lot of slack with the North Korean people and intelligentsia. It is doubtful that such slack will be cut to KJU unless some domestic successes are forthcoming.

If US Foreign Policy was governed by logic, the best thing the US can do is throttle back the rhetoric and let things settle down. There will be no changes for perhaps a few years.

Diplomacy has been called the art of letting the other person have your way.

It is better for the North Korean government to "come up" with an idea that will result in a small change than for the US to push such an idea.

The short attention span of US Foreign Policy as well as our domestic politics will work against us. We need to focus on patience not pride.

This being an election year, I am not optimistic. While I am not sad that KJI died, I do wish he could have hung on until after our next election. It would have made our foreign policy decisions a little less affected by politics.

01-02-12, 01:24 PM	#2
STEED Lucky Jack Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Down Town UK Posts: 27,695 Downloads: 89 Uploads: 48	Change my rump, it's business as usual in the North. __________________ Dr Who rest in peace 1963-2017. To borrow Davros saying...I NAME YOU CHIBNALL THE DESTROYER OF DR WHO YOU KILLED IT!

01-02-12, 01:46 PM	#3
Jimbuna Chief of the Boat Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 250 metres below the surface Posts: 190,500 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 13	I thought tou were Luton area darn sarf __________________ Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something. Oh my God, not again!!

01-02-12, 09:02 PM	#4
Platapus Fleet Admiral Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 19,361 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 0	Change will come slowly to North Korea. Kim Jong Un (KJU) is not only a full generation removed from Kim Il Sung (KIS), KJU actually spent very little time with KIS. KJU spent most of his early life out of the country in school. The cultural and spiritual connection with KIS will not be as strong as with Kim Jong Il (KJI). KJU will still be honoured and will have many high ranking titles, but more of the running of the country will fall to others. In a culture that values the elderly, KJU's age (at 28 he is the youngest head of state in the world) will further push him in a position of being a revered figurehead, but little actual power. KJI was 53 when he assumed power. It is also important to recognize that KJI has considerable political experience up to the death of KIS. KJU has relatively little. It is popular myth to consider North Korea to be run solely by one person. The reality is far from that. There is considerable political rivalry and much of the power rests with official and unofficial cohorts amongst powerful and experienced politicians and military officers. Looking at my crystal ball, I envision a period of increased rhetoric on the part of KJU and the North Korean government aimed at convincing the North Koreans that things are continuing as before but then after a year or two, deals with South Korea and China will be made.. perhaps clandestinely. KJI was, domestically, a failed leader. Where KIS was able to use Juche for success, KJI continued the philosophy of Juche but had very few successes. The fact that KJI was the son of KIS, gave KJI a lot of slack with the North Korean people and intelligentsia. It is doubtful that such slack will be cut to KJU unless some domestic successes are forthcoming. If US Foreign Policy was governed by logic, the best thing the US can do is throttle back the rhetoric and let things settle down. There will be no changes for perhaps a few years. Diplomacy has been called the art of letting the other person have your way. It is better for the North Korean government to "come up" with an idea that will result in a small change than for the US to push such an idea. The short attention span of US Foreign Policy as well as our domestic politics will work against us. We need to focus on patience not pride. This being an election year, I am not optimistic. While I am not sad that KJI died, I do wish he could have hung on until after our next election. It would have made our foreign policy decisions a little less affected by politics. __________________ abusus non tollit usum - A right should NOT be withheld from people on the basis that some tend to abuse that right.