On Korea again

Castout · 06-18-11, 12:23 AM

http://www.omantribune.com/index.php...5&heading=Asia

Now the South are deploying missiles capable of reaching PyongYang.

After a few years of reading news about North-South Korea I've come to conclusion that the South should learn not to fall for the North bait or initiative.

Here's a typical North strategy.

1. They show intention to mend relationship and showing warm rosy intentions. This is done to reduce tensions and hostility.

2. They break relationship, shutting themselves up. This is preparation to a next provocative attack on South Korea.

3. They proceeded with the provocation.

4. Relatively quiet period where they bear the brunt of any South political rage, gambling on the belief that the South wouldn't dare to risk or escalate the crisis into war.

5. Go back to one.

Now the North is on stage/no 2. The South however is showing increased hostility and readiness which could backfire if the North used the South aggressive gesture as more propaganda to justify their next provocation saying that the South is the war mongering regime.

So far the North has played their card well and in control of the initiative while the South is caught reacting from one provocation to another.

It might just be better for the South to show a cold face. A cold face yet dare enough to reply in bold counter attack in the face of future provocation. Right now the South seems to be bluffing than anything else and never ever bluff unless you're ready to make them happen. I believe a cold face is what is needed for the South to regain initiative in this North-South 'war' game. Getting ready is fine but it doesn't have to be blown all over. South should learn to play the cold Poker face.

I'm no analyst but I do know the psychology of a bully or a person who wouldn't want to be faulted for anything.

Platapus · 06-18-11, 06:56 AM

That's why we call it the Kabuki dance.

Castout · 06-18-11, 07:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Platapus

That's why we call it the Kabuki dance.

Wait let me check wiki...ah one more vocabulary added

TLAM Strike · 06-18-11, 09:06 AM

The ROK already had missiles that could reach the North's capital, these just could do it from the South of the country meaning the DPRK would have a much harder time overrunning the launch sites.

Oberon · 06-18-11, 09:17 AM

The south is very much on a hair-trigger alert, as a Chinese flight found out earlier today. I can't say I blame them, a nation can only take so much provocation, and now the souths military is getting on, if not over a par with the Norths in terms of kill capability. The numerical superiority of the north is no longer a guarantee of victory, that's why the north is trying to get itself some nuclear weapons that aren't the size of a house so that they can use them to even out the technological advantage.

Of course, SM-2 and 3 missiles and Patriots nullify that advantage somewhat.

It's a complex balance of power, but it is generally swinging in the souths favour now, before long they will be capable of directing a first strike on the north and marching on Pyongyang...however the amount of refugees and chaos which would erupt from such an event is probably the primary reason they haven't punched back yet.

Ducimus · 06-18-11, 09:19 AM

Honestly, i wish the Korean penninsula would either ****, or get off the pot already.

Jimbuna · 06-18-11, 03:13 PM

It's been a powder keg for far too long but the fact neither side has launched an all out attack since the Korean war means there must be some semblence of hope for the future...surely.

Castout · 06-18-11, 09:00 PM

I don't think South Korea is interested in invading North Korea. They just don't have the idealism of reuniting Korea like German did.

They just wanted to enjoy continued and sustainable economic growth meaning they just want to enjoy being rich.

Furthermore any intention of reuniting Korea on the part of South Korea must be done with Beijing's approval I think. That's kind of obvious.

There's no way that the Korea peninsula could be reunited simply by diplomatic effort.

However if the North Korea regime falls from within it could trigger another war. Mainly from the army faction loyal to the regime trying to unite the North Koreans with another war with the South.

Platapus · 06-19-11, 07:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Castout

I don't think South Korea is interested in invading North Korea. They just don't have the idealism of reuniting Korea like German did.

I think they used to want reunification, until they saw what happened to Germany.

The last thing South Korea wants is an influx of North Koreans to support

Castout · 06-19-11, 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Platapus

I think they used to want reunification, until they saw what happened to Germany.

The last thing South Korea wants is an influx of North Koreans to support

But I don't think Germans regret their reunification

. Sure there's a lot to pay. Maybe about a generation time to re-educate the North Koreans and have them or their children adjust to free life. Even maybe more for developing the North infrastructure. But the long term gain is there. Anyway reunification should be about nationalism first and economic last I think.

South Koreans have gone complacent I think. They just want to enjoy good life.

06-18-11, 12:23 AM	#1
Castout Silent Hunter Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Jakarta Posts: 4,794 Downloads: 89 Uploads: 6	On Korea again http://www.omantribune.com/index.php...5&heading=Asia Now the South are deploying missiles capable of reaching PyongYang. After a few years of reading news about North-South Korea I've come to conclusion that the South should learn not to fall for the North bait or initiative. Here's a typical North strategy. 1. They show intention to mend relationship and showing warm rosy intentions. This is done to reduce tensions and hostility. 2. They break relationship, shutting themselves up. This is preparation to a next provocative attack on South Korea. 3. They proceeded with the provocation. 4. Relatively quiet period where they bear the brunt of any South political rage, gambling on the belief that the South wouldn't dare to risk or escalate the crisis into war. 5. Go back to one. Now the North is on stage/no 2. The South however is showing increased hostility and readiness which could backfire if the North used the South aggressive gesture as more propaganda to justify their next provocation saying that the South is the war mongering regime. So far the North has played their card well and in control of the initiative while the South is caught reacting from one provocation to another. It might just be better for the South to show a cold face. A cold face yet dare enough to reply in bold counter attack in the face of future provocation. Right now the South seems to be bluffing than anything else and never ever bluff unless you're ready to make them happen. I believe a cold face is what is needed for the South to regain initiative in this North-South 'war' game. Getting ready is fine but it doesn't have to be blown all over. South should learn to play the cold Poker face. I'm no analyst but I do know the psychology of a bully or a person who wouldn't want to be faulted for anything. __________________ My blog: http://exposingsingapore.wordpress.com/

06-18-11, 06:56 AM	#2
Platapus Fleet Admiral Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 19,360 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 0	That's why we call it the Kabuki dance. __________________ abusus non tollit usum - A right should NOT be withheld from people on the basis that some tend to abuse that right.

06-18-11, 09:06 AM	#4
TLAM Strike Navy Seal Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Rochester, New York Posts: 8,633 Downloads: 29 Uploads: 6	The ROK already had missiles that could reach the North's capital, these just could do it from the South of the country meaning the DPRK would have a much harder time overrunning the launch sites. __________________

06-18-11, 03:13 PM	#7
Jimbuna Chief of the Boat Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 250 metres below the surface Posts: 190,453 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 13	It's been a powder keg for far too long but the fact neither side has launched an all out attack since the Korean war means there must be some semblence of hope for the future...surely. __________________ Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something. Oh my God, not again!!

06-18-11, 09:00 PM	#8
Castout Silent Hunter Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Jakarta Posts: 4,794 Downloads: 89 Uploads: 6	I don't think South Korea is interested in invading North Korea. They just don't have the idealism of reuniting Korea like German did. They just wanted to enjoy continued and sustainable economic growth meaning they just want to enjoy being rich. Furthermore any intention of reuniting Korea on the part of South Korea must be done with Beijing's approval I think. That's kind of obvious. There's no way that the Korea peninsula could be reunited simply by diplomatic effort. However if the North Korea regime falls from within it could trigger another war. Mainly from the army faction loyal to the regime trying to unite the North Koreans with another war with the South. __________________ My blog: http://exposingsingapore.wordpress.com/

06-18-11, 09:17 AM	#5
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	The south is very much on a hair-trigger alert, as a Chinese flight found out earlier today. I can't say I blame them, a nation can only take so much provocation, and now the souths military is getting on, if not over a par with the Norths in terms of kill capability. The numerical superiority of the north is no longer a guarantee of victory, that's why the north is trying to get itself some nuclear weapons that aren't the size of a house so that they can use them to even out the technological advantage. Of course, SM-2 and 3 missiles and Patriots nullify that advantage somewhat. It's a complex balance of power, but it is generally swinging in the souths favour now, before long they will be capable of directing a first strike on the north and marching on Pyongyang...however the amount of refugees and chaos which would erupt from such an event is probably the primary reason they haven't punched back yet.

06-18-11, 09:19 AM	#6
Ducimus Rear Admiral Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 12,987 Downloads: 67 Uploads: 2	Honestly, i wish the Korean penninsula would either ****, or get off the pot already.