China's F-22A Raptor Killer

[Feuer Frei!]

If you haven’t already seen it, check out The Jamestown Foundation’s provocative report about China’s J-20 super-fighter that John mentioned on Friday. Its author declares the J-20 will completely change the balance of power in Asia because it gives China the ability to penetrate any other nation’s air defenses with impunity. No other fighter in the neighborhood can match the J-20, it says, and its range and speed mean it could attack American bases in South Korea, Japan and Guam — or any other targets it so so chose — and there’s nothing anyone can do.
The report concludes:

The strategic choices available to the United States and its allies for dealing with the J-20 are very limited; such is the potency of all aircraft combining stealth and supersonic cruise capabilities. These distill down to the deployment of large numbers of F-22A Raptor fighters in the region, and the development and deployment of “counter-stealth” radars operating in the HF, VHF, and UHF radio-frequency bands. Funding for the production of the F-22A was stopped in 2009, following an intensive political effort by Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates. There is no program to fund the development and volume production of “counter-stealth” radars.


The incumbent U.S. Administration has thus committed itself politically to a path in developing air power for the U.S. armed services and allied air forces [that is] predicated wholly on future opponents operating obsolete Soviet era air defense weapons and fighters. The unveiling of the Russian T-50 PAK-FA and Chinese J-20 over the last two years has not produced any significant changes in U.S. planning, which may challenge the United States and its Pacific Rim allies’ strategic advantage in conventional air power.

Gates says that’s not so — that the F-22 and the F-35 are more than a match for any upstart new-generation fighters that may appear in Asia or elsewhere, and that besides, the U.S. and its allies will be flying hundreds or thousands of F-35s by the time China is producing J-20s in significant numbers. Not only that, look at how difficult it has been for the U.S. to develop both of its fifth-gen fighters: The F-22s are grounded, the F-35 is behind schedule, and the cost of both has been astronomic. Mightn’t the Chinese encounter their own challenges with cost, design or schedule?


SOURCE

[CCIP]

Sounds a bit like another Foxbat scenario to me

On the other hand, hey, the US got the F-15 out of the panic about it, so I don't think anyone complained even if the threat was a paper tiger. Which I totally see the J-20 being, to be perfectly honest...

If anything, seems like a bit of propaganda for the 'fighter mafia'.

[Skybird]

Cost, design, schedule.

The costs they can shoulder easier than the US, because their finances are much more healthier.

Design, they steal a lot by spionage and computer hacking, and for many years we stupid Wetserners have delivered them the needed hightech to form their own hightech industry, because "technology transfer" was and is their criterion wheter or not any Western company got a permission to do business in China or deliver it goods. Short-termed profit was moire important for us than long-sighted strategic concerns, so we have no right to complain - we kicked our butts all ourselves. Physics problem often tend to see comparable or same solutions if being tried from various directions, the rules of avionice are the same for everyone for example, and so the more time is being spend the greater the likelihood becomes that everybody shows up with similiar designs. Global media and global science and technology publication as well as observing what the Americans did and do, saves them time: they must not re-invent the wheel from scratch again. Probes of materials as well as technology samples have been stolen or otherwise got in their hands. The spyplane affair several years ago. the Nighthawk shot down in the balkans war. But the worst damage they do by computer spionage, and us stupids accepting technology transfer.

Schedule, well, they have all time they want, they have patience, and they have a centralised government reducing reaction times. They know the balance is changing in their favour anyway.

When the first Japanese cars appeared especially on the German market in the 70s, people laiughed, they were too small in internal compartments, and had no good quality. But they immediately started to improve, and condstantly became better. Today, the car market is unimaginable without Japanese brands being amongst the top ranks in quality.

The Mig-29 was massively underestimated in the West - until the fall of the wall and the German Luftwaffe getting access to a squadron of former Eastgherman Fulcrums. Testflights by German and allied pilots showed how superb the plane performed in many categories, much better than anyone thought. But one did not want to depend on deliveries of spareparts from Russia, so the squadron was decommissioned nevertheless.

There is a trend in the West, since long, and especially in the military, to overestimate oneself. Maybe because the myth of invincibility historically contributes to the overall influence and effect of existing armies. Once that reputation is lost, the rules of the game have changed.

[Feuer Frei!]

All pertinent points, Skybird.

[kraznyi_oktjabr]

Very good points Skybird.

It's hard to say from prototype phase aircraft what it's final performance will be. What ever its final performance is its risky to assume that its "not as good as ours".

[Tchocky]

From what I've seen of the J-20, It looks pretty slap-dash. The engine intakes and exhausts look fairly straightforward, and seeing as how even the now-retired F-14 could identify targets from compressor blade radar returns, I don't think the j-20 can be considered fully stealth.

That said, I think the real worry for the US going up against China in an air battle is the large and capable force of J-10 and J-11 that China is fielding.
F-22 is supreely capable, but few in number. And I can't help but see the F-35 as a straight-up disappointment.

Hardly a likely scenario to play out, mind. A Chinese housing bubble is something to properly worry about.

[the_tyrant]

you know, in China we even have a term for this
---20013;---22269;---23041;---32961;---35770;
it pretty much means "China threat theory"

every time china has an advance in military technology, western media always says it will "change the face of war" or something similar

no matter how ridiculously bad it is

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Tchocky

From what I've seen of the J-20, It looks pretty slap-dash. The engine intakes and exhausts look fairly straightforward, and seeing as how even the now-retired F-14 could identify targets from compressor blade radar returns, I don't think the j-20 can be considered fully stealth.

Yes, but we do not know if the engines used so far are the final planned engines, or just a provisoric replacement because the real engine are not ready. I seem to re3member that there is a story like this with the Russian stealth plane, too.

And also, the Chinese must not stay with the design of prototypes. They can chnage it. I do not believe they are not aware how suspiciously unstealthy their engine intakes and outlets look. Or they found a solution to the problem you described. Different material, for example.

That said, I think the real worry for the US going up against China in an air battle is the large and capable force of J-10 and J-11 that China is fielding.
F-22 is supreely capable, but few in number. And I can't help but see the F-35 as a straight-up disappointment.

Agreed on all butg the F-35 whcih I must refuse to comment on, I read too little about it to allow myself an opinion.

[Growler]

China is replaying the standard Cold War scenario of quality v quantity, but with the inevitably unique Chinese twist.

If the J20 is (physically, as a product) 75% as effective as Raptor or F35, China needs simply to produce one more aircraft per each pair of American aircraft. (This statement is predicated on all technical factors only - airframe, avionics, weapons systems. It does NOT include pilot quality.) Production in China - well, look at American store shelves to see the results of production in China. A huge workforce under putatively Communist leadership mobilized for war is not something easily discounted.

If the Chinese pilots are half as good as their American counterparts, add another two or three J20s to the production queue for each pair of American aircraft. It's not as though they'll suffer a manpower shortage of willing pilots, and even poorly trained pilots can hurt you.

It's not as though America can bang out these aircraft like we did the Fortresses, Thunderbolts, and Mustangs of WW2 - we certainly would not enjoy the freedom to produce as much, as quickly, and as close to the coasts as we did; the oceans are no longer as effective a moat as they once were.

The main issue isn't quality so much as it is production, at least, how I see it.

[Onkel Neal]

Well said Sky.

Personally, I think we should cut the defense budget by 90% and let the Chinese provide our defense. That's what Obama did with our space program. But we better clear that with our Mexican overlords first.

[FIREWALL]

Originally Posted by Neal Stevens

Well said Sky.

Personally, I think we should cut the defense budget by 90% and let the Chinese provide our defense. That's what Obama did with our space program. But we better clear that with our Mexican overlords first.

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by Growler

...and even poorly trained pilots can hurt you.

Ever heard of the Great Marianas Turkey Shoot? The US Navy's 10 to 1 air victory over the IJN.

Or what about Operation Peace for the Galilee? The IAF's 90 to 0 air victory over the Syrian Air Force.

Pilot quality is paramont. Poory trained pilots will do nothing but waste aircraft.

[Jaguar]

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

Ever heard of the Great Marianas Turkey Shoot? The US Navy's 10 to 1 air victory over the IJN.
Or what about Operation Peace for the Galilee? The IAF's 90 to 0 air victory over the Syrian Air Force.
Pilot quality is paramont. Poory trained pilots will do nothing but waste aircraft.

Add to that what is called force multipliers*. One can have a superb system, but if it´s not integrated in a usefull net of other systems its efficiency is severely handicapped. IJN has almost none back then and Israeli denied Syrian´s the use of theirs while maximizing their own.


(*) - A capability that, when added to and employed by a combat force, significantly increases the combat potential of that force and thus enhances the probability of successful mission accomplishment.

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by Jaguar

Add to that what is called force multipliers*. One can have a superb system, but if it´s not integrated in a usefull net of other systems its efficiency is severely handicapped. IJN has almost none back then and Israeli denied Syrian´s the use of theirs while maximizing their own.


(*) - A capability that, when added to and employed by a combat force, significantly increases the combat potential of that force and thus enhances the probability of successful mission accomplishment.

You're preaching to the choir. Our military is so networked that just about every system is a force multiplier. All our weapon systems can both act independently and as a whole. The SSGN is a prime example, on its own it can unlease massive distruction on an enemy but as part of an overall strike force it can "knock down the door" for the fixed wing guys.

[Jaguar]

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

You're preaching to the choir. Our military is so networked that just about every system is a force multiplier.

This is why US is the undisputable military mighty since the late 80s. Also, I kind of like Carlo Kopp but it must be clear he has an agenda: making US to sell, and Australia to buy, F-22s.

Besides, the chinese have a long way to go. Last time I checked they still couldn´t produce Su-27s engines with original standards. What to say of a 5th airplane?