What if: war between Israel and Egypt

[the_tyrant]

If the current Egyptian government topples, there is a good chance that the religious hardliners (Muslim Brotherhood) who want to declare war on Israel will come to power.

What if scenario: Muslim Brotherhood comes to power in Egypt, and war is declared between Egypt and Israel (doesn't better who attacks first).
In my opinion, Israel will win that war. Just look at the stats:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/w...index.html
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/w...index.html

Egypt's army is 468,000 strong with an extra 480,000 reservists
Egyptian equipment comprises of moderately modern equipment with 1500 m60 and 1000 m1(original, not a2) tanks and assorted old soviet tanks, and moderately modern artillery and infantry weapons
Israel's army is 125,000 soldiers and 600,000 reservists
Israeli army equipment comprises of generally modern domestic made equipment , with around 1600 Merkava and around 1500 Magach tanks of all variations, and modern artillery and infantry weapons.

On paper it seems like Egypt's army has an advantage over Israel's army, but this is hard to determine, as Egypt's army preformed badly against Israel's army in the past.

In the air:
Egypt has 438 combat aircraft, comprising of mainly f16s (around 200), plus other American, French, Soviet, and Chinese aircraft.
Israel has mainly f15s and f16s, 83 f15s(all variants, including ground attack strike eagles.) and 325 f16s (all variants). Plus assorted other aircraft

I believe that the Israeli air force has the upper hand. Israeli equipment is better, and the pilots are presumably better.

Navy
the navy is not a deciding factor, but generally I would presume the Israeli navy is better, especially considering that is Israeli navy has the highly advanced dolphin (type 212 in Germany) class submarine. However, the Egyptian navy has the highly advanced American made Oliver Hazard Perry class frigate, however Israel also has a highly advanced surface fleet comprised of self made vessels too.

Circumstances:
The IDF will probably be on high alert the moment the Muslim Brotherhood takes power, so a surprise attack into Israel is highly unlikely, Israeli forces are likely to be on high alert.
Actual Egyptian military ability is doubtable. Since historically, Israel has fought on much worse circumstances and won. Especially at a change of government, since it is extremely likely that certain amount of Egyptian troops and officers will be prosecuted/dismissed for political and religious reasons.
External support will likely go to Israel, especially since the Muslim Brotherhood is a hard-line Islamic government.

In conclusion, I believe that Israel is most likely to win a war between Israel and Egypt if the Muslim Brotherhood.