How the West was won

Skybird · 11-12-10, 11:34 AM

LINK

The BBC has a nice essay, a summary on history showing that in 18 of the past 20 centuries, China has been the richest and wealthiest trading nation on Earth and thus not so much is emerging as a new player but is just claiming back the outstanding position it always has had and that the West has just somewhat interrupted for a short while, like an intermezzo. The essay also agrees with a former argument of mine and other authors that geography has been one of the major reasons for past developement and blossoming of culture - and their fall.

Another news today was in a German newspapper, saying that China has been started to actively encourage Chinese businessmen and companies to run their business in Yuan, which is massively followed by many. This resulted in a steep climb of yuan-run business contracts, the total number exloded by 160% in the last quarter, tendency rising. Analysts say they expect that this trend will not stop over the past 4-5 years, and that this is the warmning upo-run of China to establish it's yuan as the dominant business currency in Asia, and then worldwide. Then could also be the time, in 4-5 years, when they will make the Yuan available forfree trade. And then, so most observers agree, it will be game over for the status of the dollar much, much faster than even pessimists today predict. Mind you that inside OPEC also tendencies are growing to get rid of oil trade being done in dollars only.

I would say all this are indices for the chinese having run out of patience with the financial excesses of America and the Chinese savings in bonds being constantly devalued , and that they now start to mean serious business in cleaning up the dollar mess. They can count on the support of Brazil and India, and even Russia, which forms a formaidable and potent alliance on the issue. Possibly even OPEC will give support to them at some time in the future.

America still thinks in terms of military and weapons and military technology, when it comes to confronting rivals and enemies. As I see it, and like I argue since years, the really damaging threats lie outside the reach of military means. Seen that way, the impotence of the US president (any president in his place would have been unable to reach anything more!) during the G20 summit to succeed with his protectionistic demands, and the open attacks by Brazil, India, China, Japan, Germany, against the inflation caused by the Fed in order to devalue not only the dollar but also American debt, should worry Americans much much more than US internet media, at least the major sources that I skim by routine, seem to reflect.

The rare earth crisis (and it is a crisis, do not be mistaken), also illustrates the waining of influence of the West, and that China is switching into higher gears.

It's not whether or not I like it this or the other way, and it is not about sympoathies for this or that party. It'S about how we can adapt to the loss of influence and power that we cannot stop and that is unlikely to end anytime soon. We must compensate this loss in the economic field. What we need is plans and good recipes to acchieve that. What we do not need is to stick the heads into the sand and ignore reality. The world is changing. The balances shift towards Asia, at increasing pace. Will we react by threatening war and pulling all and everybody down with us, or will we stay paralysed by ignoring unwelcomed truths and realities, or will we find a way to economically adapt to our loss of dominance and influence and importance?

AVGWarhawk · 11-12-10, 11:46 AM

I thought the west was won with a Colt 6 shooter.

TLAM Strike · 11-12-10, 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AVGWarhawk

I thought the west was won with a Colt 6 shooter.

I thought it was the Winchester Model 1873 repeating rifle....

krashkart · 11-12-10, 12:16 PM

@Skybird: I hope we manage to accept reality for what it is and adapt. If we play fair with China we'll probably be better off in the long run.

Skybird · 11-12-10, 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by krashkart

@Skybird: I hope we manage to accept reality for what it is and adapt. If we play fair with China we'll probably be better off in the long run.

They are no saints. So weren't we Europeans when we were dominant. So isn't the US.Like America has made hard power (war) a normal part of it'S poltiical tool inventory, so is soft power (trade, money) what the Chinese excel in, since always.

It comes down to whether or not we can offer them something valuable for exchange, or not. And that trump card then we need to play much better and wise than we had played away our trumps in the past 3 decades, helping them to become strong again for our short-termed profits that now mean almost nothing anymore. Stupid and short-sighted, often also naive were we. Now we got presented the
bill(s).

Hawk66 · 11-12-10, 02:04 PM

I also miss a strategy of the West to cope with the new 'world order' - as outlined by Skybird.

It starts that there is no general understanding about the economical and financial situation and it ends that there is no real strategy how to 'reinvent' the Western success story in terms of military alignment within NATO.

Related to my home country: Oh, yeah there are more important topics, like fighting against a new, planned, train station in Stuttgart or fighting against nuclear power plants...the public in general is not interested in geopolitical discussions and if yes - they are often just naive.

In my view, China is the winner of globalization but I do not see any signs that they contribute anything concerning security and stability. They are more interested to keep this crazy bastard in North Korea alive...

AVGWarhawk · 11-12-10, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

I thought it was the Winchester Model 1873 repeating rifle....

Whatever it was it contained lead.

11-12-10, 11:34 AM	#1
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,602 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	How the West was won LINK The BBC has a nice essay, a summary on history showing that in 18 of the past 20 centuries, China has been the richest and wealthiest trading nation on Earth and thus not so much is emerging as a new player but is just claiming back the outstanding position it always has had and that the West has just somewhat interrupted for a short while, like an intermezzo. The essay also agrees with a former argument of mine and other authors that geography has been one of the major reasons for past developement and blossoming of culture - and their fall. Another news today was in a German newspapper, saying that China has been started to actively encourage Chinese businessmen and companies to run their business in Yuan, which is massively followed by many. This resulted in a steep climb of yuan-run business contracts, the total number exloded by 160% in the last quarter, tendency rising. Analysts say they expect that this trend will not stop over the past 4-5 years, and that this is the warmning upo-run of China to establish it's yuan as the dominant business currency in Asia, and then worldwide. Then could also be the time, in 4-5 years, when they will make the Yuan available forfree trade. And then, so most observers agree, it will be game over for the status of the dollar much, much faster than even pessimists today predict. Mind you that inside OPEC also tendencies are growing to get rid of oil trade being done in dollars only. I would say all this are indices for the chinese having run out of patience with the financial excesses of America and the Chinese savings in bonds being constantly devalued , and that they now start to mean serious business in cleaning up the dollar mess. They can count on the support of Brazil and India, and even Russia, which forms a formaidable and potent alliance on the issue. Possibly even OPEC will give support to them at some time in the future. America still thinks in terms of military and weapons and military technology, when it comes to confronting rivals and enemies. As I see it, and like I argue since years, the really damaging threats lie outside the reach of military means. Seen that way, the impotence of the US president (any president in his place would have been unable to reach anything more!) during the G20 summit to succeed with his protectionistic demands, and the open attacks by Brazil, India, China, Japan, Germany, against the inflation caused by the Fed in order to devalue not only the dollar but also American debt, should worry Americans much much more than US internet media, at least the major sources that I skim by routine, seem to reflect. The rare earth crisis (and it is a crisis, do not be mistaken), also illustrates the waining of influence of the West, and that China is switching into higher gears. It's not whether or not I like it this or the other way, and it is not about sympoathies for this or that party. It'S about how we can adapt to the loss of influence and power that we cannot stop and that is unlikely to end anytime soon. We must compensate this loss in the economic field. What we need is plans and good recipes to acchieve that. What we do not need is to stick the heads into the sand and ignore reality. The world is changing. The balances shift towards Asia, at increasing pace. Will we react by threatening war and pulling all and everybody down with us, or will we stay paralysed by ignoring unwelcomed truths and realities, or will we find a way to economically adapt to our loss of dominance and influence and importance? __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

11-12-10, 11:46 AM	#2
AVGWarhawk Lucky Jack Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: In a 1954 Buick. Posts: 28,253 Downloads: 90 Uploads: 0	I thought the west was won with a Colt 6 shooter. __________________ “You're painfully alive in a drugged and dying culture.” ― Richard Yates, Revolutionary Road

11-12-10, 12:16 PM	#4
krashkart Navy Seal Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 5,292 Downloads: 100 Uploads: 0	@Skybird: I hope we manage to accept reality for what it is and adapt. If we play fair with China we'll probably be better off in the long run.

11-12-10, 02:04 PM	#6
Hawk66 Commodore Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Germany Posts: 609 Downloads: 36 Uploads: 0	I also miss a strategy of the West to cope with the new 'world order' - as outlined by Skybird. It starts that there is no general understanding about the economical and financial situation and it ends that there is no real strategy how to 'reinvent' the Western success story in terms of military alignment within NATO. Related to my home country: Oh, yeah there are more important topics, like fighting against a new, planned, train station in Stuttgart or fighting against nuclear power plants...the public in general is not interested in geopolitical discussions and if yes - they are often just naive. In my view, China is the winner of globalization but I do not see any signs that they contribute anything concerning security and stability. They are more interested to keep this crazy bastard in North Korea alive...