Cause for concern..

SteamWake · 02-01-10, 11:58 AM

Things are heating up in the middle east...

Quote:

(CNN) -- Two top Iranian opposition leaders have called on supporters to protest on February 11, the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, an opposition Web site reported.

Quote:

On Thursday, authorities hanged Mohammed Reza Ali Zamani, 37, and Arash Rahmanipour, 20, who had been convicted of being enemies of God and plotting to topple the Islamic regime.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/...ion=cnn_latest

Quote:

US raises stakes on Iran by sending in ships and missiles

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010...-missiles-gulf

Skybird · 02-01-10, 12:30 PM

Netanyahu is known for big words, but when it comes to deciding things, he is more known for his endless hesitation. Israel is unlikely to attack Iran on it's own. even more so since even high ranking military representatives and Israeli analysts have said surprisingly clearly that Israel lacks the (conventional) power to take out the Iranian weapons program.

That the US will launch a war against Iran, is unlikely. Not with Obama, and not with such a desastrous deficit, and mountains of debts making them living on Chinese drip and good will. And chinese good will is becoming thin since one or two years.

The EU plays the part of the substance-less paper-tiger that dreams of being taken serious, but since years it is just pointless babbling by them, knowing that any "babble" soon becomes a meaningless "bubble", and never acchieveing anything in negotiating with Iran. Europe lies to itself - and in doing so takes itself incredibly important. Even more, in the past 24 months several EU nations have agreed additional economic treaties with Teheran. These nations having economic ties will make sure that any sanctions that eventually ever will be decided will not really hurt economic relations.

Russia is a big investor into Iran. They have zero interest in seeing Iran getting damaged.

Same for China.

The UN security council will endlessly debate, and get stalled by the actors mentioned above.

The IAEA has nothing better to do than to demand Israel and America to disarm in order to convince Iran of their truthfulness. when the Israelis shattered the North-Korean nuclear facility built in Syria, the IAEA's first reaction was to complain that the facility now was no longer available for supervising the activities there. El-Baradai readily swallows and assists any attempt by the Iranians to buy time, like Europe's Solanna does, too.

Iran remains to be the second-biggest oil exporter of the world. And the West remains to be critically dependant on oil, even after the oil crisis no determined steps have been undertaken to change this.

The Iranians are in the strongest position in this match, and by a very big lead they are. The hardliners are in full control of the revolutionary guards that itself control the key parts of the military. they have a solid support in major parts of the population, even amongst the young generation. These street demonstrations mean much less than Western media try to read into them. no matter how much violance there has been, so far it has not threatened the conservative establishment. And I cannot see that happening in the forseeable future. It's not that much more than the student revolts in Germany in the late 60s - that never, at no stage, were a real threat to the constitutional order of the Westgerman Federal Republic.

Beyond this, Iran'S will to gain nuclear weapons is adamant and non-negotiable, their efforts are in a very advanced stage, the evidence is telltaling, and they know that Israel cannot stop them, Europe will not stop them, and America is not willing to pay the price for stopping them - which would possibly be a wide-spread war throughout the ME region, and a collapse of the international oil markets.

So why should they stop playing the game like they do, when it works for them so very well?

So send in another group of diplomatic babblers, and give more babbling interviews and threaten with sanction like it was done in the past 5 years, knowing that these sanctions by threat and content will be meaningless from the beginning on.

The West is weak and teethless by it's own decision. And it is bitterly determined not to change that. The outcome is almost logical. It serves us right. Only the strong one has the luxuary to chose amongst options. The weakness of his opponent - is no good will, and no tolerance, and no civilisational superiority, but the reason why he gets beaten without getting asked whether he likes that or not.

August · 02-01-10, 12:32 PM

Things have been heating up in the ME all my life.

SteamWake · 02-01-10, 01:02 PM

Well the rhetoric has become a little more strident of late and Ahmadinejad is unstable.

Skybird · 02-01-10, 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteamWake

Well the rhetoric has become a little more strident of late and Ahmadinejad is unstable.

He is just a figurhead, and means not much. Iran'S course is charted by others. You could replace him, and still nothing gets changed in the principles of iran. His opponents in the elections are massively overestimated and misperceived in the West. None of them is willing to negotiate the bomb.

CaptainHaplo · 02-01-10, 08:22 PM

If you think Benny is "endlessly hesitant" Skybird, you have NO understand of the man. A PM is not a dictator, and the Knesset is alot like the US congress, lots of talk and no action. The Knesset ties the PM's hands tremendously, and with the way the various parties have to "share" power in blocks, it makes leading such a government amazingly challenging. The fact is that Netanyahu is one of the few that has the force of will, leadership ability and charisma do accomplish anything within the organized chaos that is the Israeli government.

The only "accomplishments" his recent predecessors have been able to claim is appeasement. His unwillingness to cede the security of Israel for a quickly broken "peace" is not a failure to make a decision.

Happy Times · 02-01-10, 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaptainHaplo

The only "accomplishments" his recent predecessors have been able to claim is appeasement. His unwillingness to cede the security of Israel for a quickly broken "peace" is not a failure to make a decision.

Exactly, even if they tear down every settlement, wall and share Jerusalem they wouldnt have peace.

What happened when they left Lebanon and Gaza, peace progress?
I dont blame Israelis if they think people pushing for peace plans are out to harm them.

02-01-10, 12:30 PM	#2
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,612 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Netanyahu is known for big words, but when it comes to deciding things, he is more known for his endless hesitation. Israel is unlikely to attack Iran on it's own. even more so since even high ranking military representatives and Israeli analysts have said surprisingly clearly that Israel lacks the (conventional) power to take out the Iranian weapons program. That the US will launch a war against Iran, is unlikely. Not with Obama, and not with such a desastrous deficit, and mountains of debts making them living on Chinese drip and good will. And chinese good will is becoming thin since one or two years. The EU plays the part of the substance-less paper-tiger that dreams of being taken serious, but since years it is just pointless babbling by them, knowing that any "babble" soon becomes a meaningless "bubble", and never acchieveing anything in negotiating with Iran. Europe lies to itself - and in doing so takes itself incredibly important. Even more, in the past 24 months several EU nations have agreed additional economic treaties with Teheran. These nations having economic ties will make sure that any sanctions that eventually ever will be decided will not really hurt economic relations. Russia is a big investor into Iran. They have zero interest in seeing Iran getting damaged. Same for China. The UN security council will endlessly debate, and get stalled by the actors mentioned above. The IAEA has nothing better to do than to demand Israel and America to disarm in order to convince Iran of their truthfulness. when the Israelis shattered the North-Korean nuclear facility built in Syria, the IAEA's first reaction was to complain that the facility now was no longer available for supervising the activities there. El-Baradai readily swallows and assists any attempt by the Iranians to buy time, like Europe's Solanna does, too. Iran remains to be the second-biggest oil exporter of the world. And the West remains to be critically dependant on oil, even after the oil crisis no determined steps have been undertaken to change this. The Iranians are in the strongest position in this match, and by a very big lead they are. The hardliners are in full control of the revolutionary guards that itself control the key parts of the military. they have a solid support in major parts of the population, even amongst the young generation. These street demonstrations mean much less than Western media try to read into them. no matter how much violance there has been, so far it has not threatened the conservative establishment. And I cannot see that happening in the forseeable future. It's not that much more than the student revolts in Germany in the late 60s - that never, at no stage, were a real threat to the constitutional order of the Westgerman Federal Republic. Beyond this, Iran'S will to gain nuclear weapons is adamant and non-negotiable, their efforts are in a very advanced stage, the evidence is telltaling, and they know that Israel cannot stop them, Europe will not stop them, and America is not willing to pay the price for stopping them - which would possibly be a wide-spread war throughout the ME region, and a collapse of the international oil markets. So why should they stop playing the game like they do, when it works for them so very well? So send in another group of diplomatic babblers, and give more babbling interviews and threaten with sanction like it was done in the past 5 years, knowing that these sanctions by threat and content will be meaningless from the beginning on. The West is weak and teethless by it's own decision. And it is bitterly determined not to change that. The outcome is almost logical. It serves us right. Only the strong one has the luxuary to chose amongst options. The weakness of his opponent - is no good will, and no tolerance, and no civilisational superiority, but the reason why he gets beaten without getting asked whether he likes that or not. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert. Last edited by Skybird; 02-01-10 at 12:44 PM.

02-01-10, 12:32 PM	#3
August Wayfaring Stranger Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 23,197 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	Things have been heating up in the ME all my life. __________________ Flanked by life and the funeral pyre. Putting on a show for you to see.

02-01-10, 01:02 PM	#4
SteamWake Rear Admiral Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 13,224 Downloads: 5 Uploads: 0	Well the rhetoric has become a little more strident of late and Ahmadinejad is unstable. __________________ Follow the progress of Mr. Mulligan : http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=147648

02-01-10, 08:22 PM	#6
CaptainHaplo Silent Hunter Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 4,404 Downloads: 29 Uploads: 0	If you think Benny is "endlessly hesitant" Skybird, you have NO understand of the man. A PM is not a dictator, and the Knesset is alot like the US congress, lots of talk and no action. The Knesset ties the PM's hands tremendously, and with the way the various parties have to "share" power in blocks, it makes leading such a government amazingly challenging. The fact is that Netanyahu is one of the few that has the force of will, leadership ability and charisma do accomplish anything within the organized chaos that is the Israeli government. The only "accomplishments" his recent predecessors have been able to claim is appeasement. His unwillingness to cede the security of Israel for a quickly broken "peace" is not a failure to make a decision. __________________ Good Hunting! Captain Haplo