Russia cuts gas to Europe

[baggygreen]

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574...07-401,00.html

The dangers of provoking the russian bear.

The article mentions an accusation by the Ukranians that it is all a fabrication of Russia's. I agree. This way, russia is punishing Ukraine, and is punishing Europe for pushing NATO further and further eastwards. Russia can use the gas themselves, or they can sell it south or eastwards where there are millions of consumers at the ready.

Russia 1 - Europe 0

[Onkel Neal]

It's ok, Europe really wants to go green anyway.

[Zachstar]

Natural Gas is clean.

Unlike Oil which is normally well trapped. Natural Gas seeps out all the time and is a natural part of the cycle.

Granted much of it is underground but in comparison to coal and oil. It is green enough.

[Sailor Steve]

Oh.

I thought the title meant that...

[baggygreen]

Is it related to this perhaps?

Probably a coincidence, but one can never tell. Europe struggling through winter will have some sort of effect through to the US, and now our friend Mr Chavez is cutting some oil to the states. Its not enough to warrant much attention, but it is enough to make a subtle point if that is the intent.

:hmm:

[Rockstar]

According to the EU' new president global warming is tripe http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle5430362.ece .

Maybe they will go to war for oil, launching attacks in fast American gas guzzling SUVs with big tail fins.

He also says Israel is on the defensive and not on offense. I like this new EU President so far. Of course Sarkozy is talkin smack about Israel but if he doesn't he gonna have another uprising in those no go zones in his own country.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by baggygreen

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574...07-401,00.html

The dangers of provoking the russian bear.

The article mentions an accusation by the Ukranians that it is all a fabrication of Russia's. I agree. This way, russia is punishing Ukraine, and is punishing Europe for pushing NATO further and further eastwards. Russia can use the gas themselves, or they can sell it south or eastwards where there are millions of consumers at the ready.

Russia 1 - Europe 0

Russia is not the only one flexing its muscle - the Ukraine does the same, and maybe even more than Russia.

Of course, energy politics has always been power politics for Russia, that's why it was questionable to allow the EU consuming Russian gas to such a degree (one third of Germany's gas is Russian), even more questionable was to hinder the direct pipeline from russia via the Baltic sea to Germany, bypassing all nations inbetween: Baltic states, Poland, Ukraine. But somebody in Poland protested to become minimised in strategic importance that way, so it gets delayed endlessly and that they call diplomacy...

Russia and the Ukraine are in poor economic shape, due to the financial and global crisis, and Russia due to the fallen(now raising again) energy prices. The Russians have stopped more or less to pump gas into the pipeline that is planned for the EU, because it gets stolen by the Ukraineans. The Ukraine in return tries to call panic in Europe over the "Russian threat" - in order to enforce Ukrainean membership in NATO and the "European club" that way, after it had been shown the cold shoulder in the wake of the Georgian war. So, my sympathy for the Ukraine is very limited. Why they insist they have a right to pay less than half of the usual gobal world market prices for gas and not obeying their obligations to pay conventional penalties lead down in the old gas treaties with Russia, escapes me - they have no call for being delivered Russian gas if they do not wish to pay the Russian prices the EU also has to pay. Just stealing the gas then from the shareload intended for transportation to the EU, simply is this: criminal theft.

After Georgia having tried to almost blackmail, betray, lie and cheat in order to get Europe involved in the Caucasean war and embracing Georgia in NATO, I'm more than just a little bit pissed when realising that since longer time the Ukraine tries the same foul games, playing the innocent victim, but cheating, lying and betraying not less than Georgia did - just to force and manipulate the EU and NATO to give it membership as well, and instrumentalising the fear of Russia in order to kick in the door into the EU and get membership. The EU already has problems enough even without such foul candidates, its not that all EU businesses already are healthy and in order. Additional problems from wannabe-candidates like this, with all the conflict potential they bring (regarding Russia), are not needed, really. They cost us more troubles than we get benefits in return. 29 states in the EU definetly is many more than is healthy for the organisation. As the saying goes: the more cooks there are in kitchen, the more they spoil the brew.

[Dan D]

I dunno, how the other the peeps are doing, but for Germany it looks like this:

gas supply from Russia 37 %, part of it via the Ukraine,

Norway 26 %,

Netherlands 18 %,

Germany 15 %,

Denmark 4 %.

Pipelines from Russia to Germany go via the Ukraine, Belarus and Poland.
Gazprom (Russia) has announced, that it will reduce the gas transfer via the Ukraine and that it will make more use of the Belarus and Poland pipelines.
It seems, that the Ukraine, quote from the article: " RUSSIA had drastically cut gas supplies to Europe, the Ukraine Government says", is looking for allies.

Gazprom statement:
http://www.gazprom.ru/eng/news/2009/01/33513.shtml

I am a little bit worried about England, though. Its energy demand at present is fullfilled with 80 % seabird guano from Iceland and with 20 % marsh gases from French cows. Potential gas transfer from Russia to England would happen through pipelines via Germany. Though luck!

[Skybird]

Germany is reached from Russia via two pipeline systems: the network of pipelines passing through the Ukraine and the Czech Republic and ending in Bavaria, and another, smaller pipeline in the north, leading through Belarus and Poland, bypassing the Ukraine completely. however, the latter has not the potential to transport as much gas as the southern pipelines do. the southern networks transports around 4 or 5 times as much gas as does the northern pipeline.

Germany is not at risk currently, we have enough gas reserves for 90 days, which could bring us through all winter even if ALL gas imports would be disrupted, from our western neighbours as well. But many other nations in europe, especially in the south, are not as safe because they had not invested in saving reserves like Germany did. they immediately consume what they get delivered, and save no reserves. These nations now are in a bad position. I heared that several cities are without heating - nice. Due to an Arctic front, we had temperatures of -26°C last night in Eastern Germany.

[XabbaRus]

NO sympathy for the Ukraine...

Want to pay half then you have to give something back.

I can't tell my energy company to stick it when they increase prices, why can Ukraine?

Don't give me the big bad Russia thing. Ukraine knows exactly how to stir it up.

As for Poland being strategically minimised, I didn't know it was important anyway?

[Zachstar]

Maybe it is just me but this sounds so 80-90s.

Anyone else getting that feeling?

Ppl going to blame the Ukraine have to keep something in mind. First of all, the Urkaine, even if it wanted to, can't pay what the russians are demanding. The country is in such a poor state, made even worse by the financial crisis, that it has huge problems coming up with any money at all. The heavy industries in the country, it's only source of income, has declined steadily over the last couple years. The state is near bankruptcy.

Russia on the other hands demands more money from the Ukraine then it asks from even Europe. Russia pushes the Ukraine into a position where it hardly has a choice but to go onto the offensive, which makes Russia look like the good boy. Russia managed to pull this off in Georgia already, where it constantly provoked this country over years until it got agressive. It's a perfect policy for Russia as it strenghens it's position against NATO and succesfully prevents further western influence in these regions on the back of common ppl in these regions.

Unluckily Europe has gone soft and rather allies with Russia to secure it's energy then standing up to principles and launching a major support program for the Ukraine, thus giving the message that imperialistic politics of old are still ok and that russia has some kind of birth given right to have a sphere of influence just because it once had and powergames ontop of common ppl in other countries are nice and dandy.

I personally can only hope the EU learns something and as Neil already said, gets it's alternative energy programs on line to prevent future clashes with Russia and gain back some space for diplomatic movement.

[XabbaRus]

Urm not true, Russia is demanding from Ukraine the market rate charged to other european customers. On top of that there are fines from late payment.

That the Ukraine can't pay isn't Russia's fault.

No one made it easy for Russia to pay off her foreign soviet debt but they paid it off, fortunately due to high energy prices.

Seriously would anyone have any sympathy for me if say my energy company raised the prices but I couldn't pay it? The energy companies would come after me for the money and wouldn't give a damn. This is the same on a larger scale.

I believe it is Yuschenko making it political. He will do anything to make Russia look bad.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Bewolf

Ppl going to blame the Ukraine have to keep something in mind. First of all, the Urkaine, even if it wanted to, can't pay what the russians are demanding. The country is in such a poor state, made even worse by the financial crisis, that it has huge problems coming up with any money at all. The heavy industries in the country, it's only source of income, has declined steadily over the last couple years. The state is near bankruptcy.

That is not the Russians to blame for, but their own corrupt politics and inner divisionsThe Ukraine still is object to world markewt prices for all things it buys and sells. And the financial crisis - effects everybody, not just the Ukraine. It also effects Russia, so why should they waste their ressources headlessly? They have nopthing to waste. And is somebody selling steel to Germany cheaper than before, just because German car makers face a loss in sales of one quarter? Hardly. If the Ukraine lacks income to pay for the ressources it needs, it needs to ask for help at the ICF or the WB, and needs to accept to submit to the obligations and rules that come with that step. I do not like both institutions, but for the time being, this is the correct procedure. You do not simply demand for yourself not needing to pay anymore, and steal what you need from others.

Russia on the other hands demands more money from the Ukraine then it asks from even Europe.

Not really. The Ukraine since years pays less than half of the regular market prices for their gas from Russia, the european nations had to pay much more. That in the times of conflict and negotiations (or lack of these), and after the loss of trust by the Russians in their Ukrainean partners they now step up there demands to compensate the risks, is understandable, and it also is to teach them a lesson about their ongoing provocations (I just remind of the Ukrainean high profile offense during the Georgian war, to lecture Russian Black Sea Fleet about asking Ukraine for permission for future military operations). If you live close to russia, are economically weak and dependant, and have many russians living in your country - you simply do not bully around at every opportunity like the Ukraine does. It is stupid to trigger unneeded conflicts, just in an attempt to blöackmail the West to give you membership. It is the same kind of irresponsible and almost criminal behaviour we have seen by Saakashvili. Act like an irresponsible moron, create facts and hope the West swallows it when you declare yourself the victim nevertheless.

Russia pushes the Ukraine into a position where it hardly has a choice but to go onto the offensive, which makes Russia look like the good boy. Russia managed to pull this off in Georgia already, where it constantly provoked this country over years until it got agressive. It's a perfect policy for Russia as it strenghens it's position against NATO and succesfully prevents further western influence in these regions on the back of common ppl in these regions.

that is quite the usual and heavily onesided, distroted way to see the Georgian conflict. Georgia'S brutal opression both regarding minorities and democratic movements, it'S try to blackmail the West by creating sfacts on the ground to givbe it membership in NATO, it'S intentional targetti8ng of civilians and members of minorities, it'S autocratic antidemocratic government making ridicule of wetsern understanding of "democracy" - all this you comfortably ignore. - As I see it: Georgia at least is as guilty as Russia. For Russia, the new provinces that became indepedant have turned into stings in it'S flank, showing to be run by Mafia-style corrupt clans just soaking up Russian money, so regarding that Russia has hardly gained anything. But it has successfully turned away the threat of more american influence spreading in the Kaucasus. As sphere of influence you complain about in the next paragraph when it is for the russians, but that you comfortably ignore whgen it is an infoluence connected to America and NATO. Double standards, this is called.

Unluckily Europe has gone soft and rather allies with Russia to secure it's energy then standing up to principles and launching a major support program for the Ukraine, thus giving the message that imperialistic politics of old are still ok and that russia has some kind of birth given right to have a sphere of influence just because it once had and powergames ontop of common ppl in other countries are nice and dandy.

I personally can only hope the EU learns something and as Neil already said, gets it's alternative energy programs on line to prevent future clashes with Russia and gain back some space for diplomatic movement.

I agree on the energy thing, it should have been started already after the oil crisis in the 70s.

However, my trust in EU competence to manage such things is fading faster than ever, and regarding it's diplomatic influence, nobody takes that more serious than the european chief diplomats and officials themselves. In the middle East, they are castrated and are laughed about, nobody takes them serious. Russia - to say the very least - talks to them on same eye level, or from higher position. Bush ignored Europe, and Obama will give europe not more than more polite behaviour and compliments that are cheap and can be given for free, while not adjusting fundamental principles of American policies (and that inlcudes: american interests first - well he is not the European but the American president, so I even cannot attack him on that), and demanding more european contributions to american-directed causes. the EU is really strong only in two things: eroding democracy in europe and replaing it with tyranny by establishing a relatvely small inn size but very strong bureaucratic mechanism that is bypassing national parliaments and democratic legitimation by the eurpean people and is independant from voting results in nations, and in negotiating egoist agricultural and economic deals and treaties with those that are weaker than the EU and often have to accept extremely disadvantageous conditions: the third world. And in the Far East, china is beyond the EU anyway, and the Pacific region is the playfield of China, Japan and America.

A megalomaniac mouse that roars and moralises its own people, while being turned away by other global players it has no influence over. It all reminds me of the ridiculous social and state models you can find in the novels by Philip K. Dick. much of the absurdities he described, I used to luagh about in the past. Today, I see much of that stuff being turned into absurd realities. Great.

Let's try to see it positive and turn it into a compliment for a visionary writer.

P.S. just for the record, I am no exiled Russian, nor do I have Russian ancestors. I do not transfigure neither the Soviet Union, nor Putinistan. I just refuse to subscribe to the western onesided blindness of opportunistic egocentrism, and I believe it is stupid to demand the other should behave stupid and violate his own vital interests - just for the sake of the wellbeing of yours.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by XabbaRus

As for Poland being strategically minimised, I didn't know it was important anyway?

Being from Russia, you may want to be more careful with such comments, Xabba. they have all historic reason to be worried about their two giant neighbours, Russia and germany. however, their probolem today is they allow their history to dominate their present, turning it into a constant state of paranoia and - in an effort to overcompensate for that - tough nationalism on their own side, while demonising both Germany and Russia, and the whole Eu in general, on the other side. Also, claiming a state of being the eternal victim, can be turned opportunistically into gold during political negotiations, so part of it all also is just this: posture, calculated tactic, and playacting: you see that tactic also being used by Palestinians, Islam, and sometimes Israel and Jewish organisations as well, even russia, the Ukraine and Georgia .

If Poland has one problem in the present, it is a psychopathological one. Unfortunately, that you can explain it does not mean it takes away the many problems they cause inside the EU, and the many "Extra-Würstchen" they demand and often get. what is behind it is not really a strong ego, but a deep-rooting inferiority complex, caused by historic trauma.

Hope they get over it sooner or later. That would make Poland a much better neighbour for Germany, and an easier and more relaxed EU member (right now the political Poland seems to cramp at every opportunity, doesn't it). - Not that on private, inter-personal levels many relations between Poles and Germans already give evidence that people can act very well and friendly with each other already. My personal quarrel is more with policies and politicians in Poland, not with the people. The few Poles I knew, were okay, and we got along very well.