The future of Germany's energy: demand and supply on collision course

[Skybird]

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...547555,00.html

It probably gets waited out until the first major blackouts take place. And this in a country whose redundant powergrid just years ago was described as one of the most stable and reliable worldwide. Many young people do not even know by experience what a blackout is.

[Trex]

A good example of people governing by their hearts rather than their heads. I suspect that a killing could be made by buying depressed nuke stock when the plants close down. In Germany, unlike California, demand-driven blackouts would probably come in mid-winter. The first couple of blackouts should reverse public opinion very quickly. When push comes to grunt, people will burn whales and baby seals rather than freeze.

Out of curiosity, how extensive is the European electrical grid? North America has, I know, almost one unified system.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Trex

A good example of people governing by their hearts rather than their heads. I suspect that a killing could be made by buying depressed nuke stock when the plants close down. In Germany, unlike California, demand-driven blackouts would probably come in mid-winter.

No, in summer, or when too many different producers from too many different ends feed their electricity into the powergrid simultaneously.

Out of curiosity, how extensive is the European electrical grid? North America has, I know, almost one unified system.

Germans used to think their powergrid is amongst the best in the world, and one of the most redundant system in Euorpe - we used to watch with smiling faces when there was another blackout in the US reported. But that grid was designed for diffrent demand and feeding-in patterns than those that have appeared over the past 10 years, and are to appear in the near future. Germany faced it's first major blackout since aeons three years ago, during the extreme record winter we had back then, and snow broke poles and cut wires all over the North, due to old, worn-out material. 50km NE of where I live, in regions around Osnabrück, friends of mine needed to live without electricity and heating for several days. Just one year before, their were first alarming signals during the record summer we had, water turbines failed due to low water levels, and ventilators and air conditioning were running day and night. And maybe around one year ago, there was another blackout that worked it's waythrough much of the European powergrid, starting in Germany by technical problems during a major powercable beeing cut off in a wrong way becasue it had to be deactivated for some huge sealiner passing under it when leaving the dock.

[Trex]

Let me rephrase my question. How interoperable, how interlinked, are you with the power grids of the rest of the EU?

I am, to be honest, most surprised at your statement that the most likely cause for a blackout is too much juice. It would seem as it that problem could be solved a lot more easily than too little.

[Tchocky]

http://www.ucte.org/

There are interconnectors between France/England and under the Irish Sea, too.

[Trex]

Thanks for that. Am I right in assuming therefore that this is not a purely Germany problem, but rather one that has the potential to affect all of Europe?

[CaptHawkeye]

Originally Posted by Trex

Thanks for that. Am I right in assuming therefore that this is not a purely Germany problem, but rather one that has the potential to affect all of Europe?

More like the whole world. I guess that's what happens when you build your society to rely upon constant economic growth.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Trex

Thanks for that. Am I right in assuming therefore that this is not a purely Germany problem, but rather one that has the potential to affect all of Europe?

If "all of Europe" means "significant parts of Europe", then yes, as my referene to that blackout that started in Germany (and within seconds reached through France as far as Spain) illustrated. It was a chain reaction of safety shutdowns that rolled like an avalanche. But how the system it is to be described in precise technical terms I cannot tell you, I am no specialist for these things. I only know that these systems are only redundant as long as voltage fluctuations (due to switching on and off certain parts of the grid when different powerplants vary their acivity) do not exceed a certain threshold level. If it goes beyond that level, it goes boom. The problem is to transport the energy via the grid over long distances, and to avoid to trigger these safeties when parts of the grid are switched on or off.

[Dan D]

Interesting movie (in English) about a research by the University of Kassel/Germany:
"Is it possible to supply Germany around-the-clock with 100% power from renewable energies?"

[SUBMAN1]

Just build some nukes. SHould fix all the problems real fast. Good clean power.

-S

[AntEater]

Problem is, our power grid is modern because huge parts of it are less than 20 years old.
In most countries, power lines and plants are replaced only when it is absolutely necessary, hence they're much older.
In Germany, electricity was quasi state (state run private companies with localized responsibility) run until a few years ago, with guaranteed investment in grids and plants every few years.
Now the former state monopolists have been privatized, resulting in steeper prices, even less competition (4 major suppliers in Germany, but no direct competition between them), no new investments and less maintenance.
Add to that the "nuclear exit", a typical german compromise.
Re nuclear power, you can basically:
- continue it, thereby retaining a very expensive but extremely reliable energy source and a huge high tech industry with endless export possibilities, but risking a disaster and having to deal with waste
- abandon it, reducing the risk and waste while losing the industry and being forced to invest in more emission intensive power sources like coal

In a bout of fancy brainwork, our politicians and industry managed to combine the drawbacks of both concepts into a compromise so convoluted that no one seems to have figured out what it actually means. Except the nuclear industry, which is quite dead, leaving that technology field to the french (with their less than enviable safety record) and the brits (Sellafield, nuff said).

[SUBMAN1]

Originally Posted by AntEater

...Add to that the "nuclear exit", a typical german compromise.
Re nuclear power, you can basically:
- continue it, thereby retaining a very expensive but extremely reliable energy source and a huge high tech industry with endless export possibilities, but risking a disaster and having to deal with waste
- abandon it, reducing the risk and waste while losing the industry and being forced to invest in more emission intensive power sources like coal...

Nuke tech has come a long way in recent years. A meltdown is near impossible (the human element is removed, though manual controls still exist for over-ride), and containiment in an event if it could possibly occur is secure. And, you get free power with no harmful effects on the enviroment - with near perfectly efficient reactors and almost no waste. Its the only way forward, unless we start getting antimatter reactors.

-S

PS. The US has started building its first reactors in decades - check TX.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dan D

Interesting movie (in English) about a research by the University of Kassel/Germany:
"Is it possible to supply Germany around-the-clock with 100% power from renewable energies?"

Technologically and by market shares, Germay is world leader in solar tech. But we have seriously flawed this field of economy by boosting it by ruinous subsidies. These (if you only calculate it to the end) cause tax-payed investements and running costs that in the form of effective profits being payed to investors and turn them into a ruinous, unbelievably expensive lose-lose situation in Germany. The cost for 1 KWh produced by "Photovoltaik", as it is called over here, is absolutely beyond any competitiveness, and will remain to be that. That is the only reason why foreigners invest in solar-produced power made in Germany: it means that plenty of German taxes get shifted from the state into private investor's pockets. That would be excusable if it is not beyond a reasonable scale, regarding the benefit of boosting a clean energy source. But the costs surpass the gains by a 3-digit factor. If half the German power needs would be proeduced by solar tech, it would consume more than half the national GNP - most of it would be subsidies that in the end ends in the pokcets of oversea investors.

The technology is superior, yes. But the economical structures formed around it are a total catastrophe. Give something of benefit into the hands of politicians that do not think beyond the next election, and you can be sure that the will mess up everything in it that could be messed up - in this case for nothing else that narcissistic ideological reasons.

Verdammte Trottel.

[Dan D]

Originally Posted by SUBMAN1

Just build some nukes. SHould fix all the problems real fast. Good clean power.

-S

Well, here on our little farm in Walnut Grove in the late 80ies the political decision -backed by a majority of voters- was made for a nuclear power phase out. The last atomic power plant will be shut down in 2026 according to the exit plan, if I remember correctly.
To reverse that process you would need to shape a new political majority in favour of nuclear power supply which is not exactly the most urgent political issue for average guy in the street. Important political issues for the man in the street e.g. are to fight against illiteracy, infanticide and for clean bottled water and free beer for all etc, you know?
Also, “good clean power”, I don’t know. There are those burnt down nuclear fuel rods that you have to store safely for a very long period time. The final storage is still an issue, I think.

The movie btw makes clear, that it is still a long way to go if you want to shut down coal and atomic power plants.

However, what I find interesting is when Al GORE-TEX® comes into the play.
When he comes here to talk about global warming, he gets invited and paid for his lectures by business companies who would like to see the atomic power industry revived. At least, this was the case, when he came here last year as freshly new peace nobel-prize winner to talk at an energy convention.
The message would be:“global warming- we rely on “clean” atomic power”.
I always wondered why Al Gore is given such a huge platform for his global warming message because his message is not that popular. I mean, someone has to pay his Lobby work, or is he born rich? It is not what the big guys who have all the money want to hear-unless it helps to promote atomic power industry perhaps?
“Global warming”: Al Gore- rent boy of the atomic power industry”,
that makes up for a good conspiracy theory, does not it? :-)