Nuclear War in Asia Would Trigger Climate Catastrophe

[Skybird]

As always, I remain to stay a source of constant joy and optimism. This is for all the easy-tempered "Nuke 'em!"-bawlers:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...454571,00.html

What consequences would a nuclear war between Israel and Iran, or between Pakistan and India, have for the world's climate? Scientists have now created a computer model of what might happen. The results are alarming -- even for experts. (...) If 100 nuclear weapons with an explosive force of 15 kilotons each were used, Robock says, it could spur "climate changes exceeding changes experienced in recorded history." (...) The scientists themselves weren't expecting such results. Given the relatively small number of weapons and their low explosive yield, the global results are remarkably serious, the report concludes. (...) The approach used by Toon and Robock goes back to the theory of a "nuclear winter," developed by Carl Sagan with four of his colleagues in 1983 in order to assess the consequences of a nuclear war between the United States and the Soviet Union. The nuclear ice age would kill 90 percent of the world's population, Sagan chillingly predicted. Toon says that 100 Hiroshima-size nuclear weapons wouldn't cause a nuclear winter. But the climate and the ozone layer would change in a devastating way: "Our work shows the entire world would be impacted, possibly severely." (...) it was never the intention of Toon and Robock to develop the most realistic regional nuclear war possible. They simply wanted to simulate the results of such a clash for the climate. "To do that, you need solid assumptions that you can base your calculations on," Geiger says. In this sense, he believes the US scientists have delivered "new, independent and first-rate work."

Complete scientific report here:

http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/acp/acpd/6/11745/acpd-6-11745.pdf

Introduction at their homepage:

We assess the potential damage and smoke production associated with the detonation of small nuclear weapons in modern megacities. While the number of nuclear warheads in the world has fallen by about a factor of three since its peak in 1986, the number of nuclear weapons states is increasing and the potential exists for numerous regional nuclear arms races. Eight countries are known to have nuclear weapons, 2 are constructing them, and an additional 32 nations already have the fissile material needed to build substantial arsenals of low-yield (Hiroshima-sized) explosives. Population and economic activity worldwide are congregated to an increasing extent in megacities, which might be targeted in a nuclear conflict. Our analysis shows that, per kiloton of yield, low yield weapons can produce 100 times as many fatalities and 100 times as much smoke from fires as high-yield weapons, if they are targeted at city centers. A single "small'' nuclear detonation in an urban center could lead to more fatalities, in some cases by orders of magnitude, than have occurred in the major historical conflicts of many countries. We analyze the likely outcome of a regional nuclear exchange involving 100 15-kt explosions (less than 0.1% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal). We find that such an exchange could produce direct fatalities comparable to all of those worldwide in World War II, or to those once estimated for a "counterforce'' nuclear war between the superpowers. Megacities exposed to atmospheric fallout of long-lived radionuclides would likely be abandoned indefinitely, with severe national and international implications. Our analysis shows that smoke from urban firestorms in a regional war would rise into the upper troposphere due to pyro-convection. Robock et al. (2006) show that the smoke would subsequently rise deep into the stratosphere due to atmospheric heating, and then might induce significant climatic anomalies on global scales.We also anticipate substantial perturbations of global ozone. While there are many uncertainties in the predictions we make here, the principal unknowns are the type and scale of conflict that might occur. The scope and severity of the hazards identified pose a significant threat to the global community. They deserve careful analysis by governments worldwide advised by a broad section of the world scientific community, as well as widespread public debate.

http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/acp/acpd/6/11745/acpd-6-11745.htm

Happy wars can't start early enough.