Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Some day sago media rumoured that Putin issues kind of an ultimatum to Shoigu to start an attack, just any attack, on any Ukrianian city, no matter the cost, in a bid to regain initiave and/or to force Ukraine to divert forces it uses in its own offensive. The claimed russian offensive may be expression of that ultimatum, if it was real. That would possibly imply that the the Russians indeed support this offensive desperately and with just anything they can scratch together, which currently is not much.



Russian has announced the formation of new units. Thats a game they can do very, very, very often. It say snotrhign apout the quality of that units, but over the longer time their mere numbers may exhaust the Ukrainians.

Putin has extended the deadline for Russian forces to capture Donetsk Oblast from August 31, 2022 to the highly unlikely target date of September 15, 2022 now Putin wants the Ukrainian counteroffensive halted by early October 2023 and has instructed Russia’s defence minister Sergei Shoigu to improve the situation both demands are/were not possible. Russia's losses more amour and artillery than they can replace, so those new units will be weak canon fodder (that is why the cluster munition is given) the ongoing mobilisation does not mean they all going to Ukraine these are conscripts those are not allowed to fight in Ukraine they must first sign a contract to go to war the ones that go are mostly poor promise a lot of money, but money does not ensure good fighters more bad moral if they realize they are meat for the grinder.

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Frankfzurte rRundschau published this image to illustrate the advance of Ukraine June 7th to today.
A "breakthrough looks different.
I think Kyiv exaggerated their successes a bit...
And wasnt it said they "breached the third defenc eline of the Russians? All I see on that illustration is they merely broke through the second, and are a good way away from the third.

They overwhelmed some serious defences - at unknown costs for themselves. A breakthrough this is not.

They got in a small part of the third defence line these defence lines here are the second best they are a very difficult network on different levels (tunnels and very deep trenches with bunkers all connected with each other WW1 kind of battle) hard to clear and Russia send it elite VDV's they have thrown everything on this area it is top priority for Russia to keep these lines this is the battle for Tokmak if Ukraine can break the Russians here they can kettle Tokmak and threaten the supply line network there.

[mapuc]

I must say, it is interesting to follow the discussion between two friends here in this thread.

Can both be right ? Can both be wrong ?
Will one of them in the end be more accurate in his writings ?

I put my money on one of them..

(As I want Ukraine to win the war and kick Russia out of Ukraine)

Back to discuss war in Ukraine.

She has lost a nickel or two since she can come up with such a suggestion-Using the strongest nukes Russia have and drop it in Siberia.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Russia has successfully tested an experimental nuclear-powered cruise missile, Vladimir Putin said, and warned that the country’s parliament could revoke its ratification of a treaty banning nuclear tests.

In a speech at a forum of foreign policy experts, Mr Putin announced that Moscow has effectively completed the development of the Burevestnik cruise missile and the Sarmat heavy intercontinental ballistic missile and will work on putting them into production.

“We conducted the last successful test of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered global-range cruise missile,” he said without elaborating.

His statement was the first announcement of a successful test of the Burevestnik, which translates as Storm Petrel. It was first mentioned by Mr Putin in 2018.

Little is known about the Burevestnik, which was code-named Skyfall by Nato, and many western experts have been sceptical about it, noting that a nuclear engine could be highly unreliable.

It is believed to be able to carry a nuclear warhead or a conventional one, and could stay aloft for a much longer time than other missiles and cover much more distance thanks to nuclear propulsion.

When Mr Putin first revealed that Russia was working on the weapon in his 2018 state-of-the-nation address, he claimed it would have an unlimited range, allowing it to circle the globe undetected by missile defence systems.

Many observers have argued that such a weapon could be difficult to handle and would pose an environmental threat.

The US and the Soviet Union worked on nuclear-powered rocket engines during the Cold War, but they eventually shelved the projects, considering them too hazardous.

The Burevestnik reportedly suffered an explosion in August 2019 during tests at a Russian navy range on the White Sea, killing five nuclear engineers and two servicemen and causing a brief spike in radioactivity that fuelled fears in a nearby city.

Russian officials never identified the weapon involved, but the US said it was the Burevestnik.

In the speech on Thursday, Mr Putin noted the US has signed but not ratified the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban, while Moscow has signed and ratified it. He argued that Russia could mirror the stand taken by Washington.

“Theoretically, we may revoke the ratification,” he said.

Moscow last tested a nuclear weapon in 1990, before the collapse of the Soviet Union a year later. It ratified the global test ban in 2000.

Mr Putin’s statement comes amid widespread concerns that Russia could resume nuclear tests to try to discourage the West from continuing to offer military support to Ukraine after the Kremlin sent troops into the country.

The president said that while some experts have talked about the need to conduct nuclear tests, he has not yet formed an opinion on the issue.

“I’m not ready to say yet whether it’s necessary for us to conduct tests or not,” he said.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...f3ab2661&ei=16

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Skybird

[...]
And Europe [Germany] still has not switched on war production.

If the west continues the support, Russia has lost. It has lost already, since Putin has no plan B, after plan A to take Kyiv in the first week failed.
Indeed I wonder what Russia really wants now, it seems they themselves have no clue. What do they want to achieve? Now?
Kill more Russians and Ukrainians just so, brilliant "plan".

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Catfish

If the west continues the support, Russia has lost. It has lost already, since Putin has no plan B, after plan A to take Kyiv in the first week failed.
Indeed I wonder what Russia really wants now, it seems they themselves have no clue. What do they want to achieve? Now?
Kill more Russians and Ukrainians just so, brilliant "plan".

When the plan did not work Putin is stuck in Ukraine dictators can not lose it is win or die for them if we can keep supporting Ukraine in any way Russia will crumble. Worse is this can take years but also can happen in months nobody can predict, fact is Russia history is full of these kinda leaders that ended badly. Russia is so cunning at the moment, they attrite themselves with their counter-attacks to get lost territory back.

[Skybird]

The war will sooner or later turn into a conflict of lower intensity, but then simmerign on endlessly - driven by Putin. Kremlin does this often, keeping conflpicts endlessly simmering, usually benefitting from the resulting instability and the slow erosion in the target region. But right now Putin still is focussed on winning, "all in".



Whether Russian reserves fad eout or not we will see. But the suppoort for Ukriane by the West is not to be taken for granted, it will decline in material deliveries, and decline faster in nation's population's support. The latter already happens.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

It is not about right or wrong for me, I do not look for the numbers I look for the trends also take all those "experts" not serious they and we do not have the information to see how the picture looks and do not think this whole western plan on how to win this for Ukraine is realistic. Ukraine knows the best they got the info they got the knowledge they sacrifice themselves so think they know the best how to beat Russia.

Ukraine is striking artillery after artillery, tank after tank, APC after APC on a massive daily basis, and we are saying "doom Ukraine's for not moving forward" "doom Ukraine's just sitting there" "doom doom doom" but that is not happening there every day hundreds of people dying on the fronts that is a fact. That this offensive is over when it is gone to rain is not true, still hundreds will die daily because Ukraine will never surrender and that is their right it is their country their freedom they are fighting for.

It's certainly their rights and they are fighting for their freedom. This is why it is of most important that our aid to Ukraine do not stop until the war is over.

I recall someone mentioned in the old thread, that Russia had turn their factories into war production.
When reading about the stories about Russia running low on almost everything-Tanks, shells a.s.o. Makes one wonder how effective these factory is.

Markus

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by mapuc

It's certainly their rights and they are fighting for their freedom. [...]

It is not only "freedom" they fight or better defend for, they fight for not being killed. Putin and his troll and bot army along with those tv-show anchormen have said numerous times that they want to kill all Ukrainians.
They just wonder and discuss how to do this effectively, but several came up with concentration camps.
Just one quote "We have a problem because maybe we cannot genocide them all".
No joke, it is all published and available on the 'net.

This is why it is of most important that our aid to Ukraine do not stop until the war is over. [...] Markus

Amen to this.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The war will sooner or later turn into a conflict of lower intensity, but then simmerign on endlessly - driven by Putin. Kremlin does this often, keeping conflpicts endlessly simmering, usually benefitting from the resulting instability and the slow erosion in the target region. But right now Putin still is focussed on winning, "all in".



Whether Russian reserves fad eout or not we will see. But the suppoort for Ukriane by the West is not to be taken for granted, it will decline in material deliveries, and decline faster in nation's population's support. The latter already happens.

Maybe it will become like the Korea war possible, but Russia then becomes the same as North Korea Ukraine will come stronger out of this. China will not help Russia, it is to distance themselves like they do not really help North Korea China needs the west like we need China, so Russia will get the leftovers isolated on the globe. It will not get the support as Ukraine gets, Ukraine is western in goal we will help friends other countries not on our side can not help as we do.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I recall someone mentioned in the old thread, that Russia had turn their factories into war production.
When reading about the stories about Russia running low on almost everything-Tanks, shells a.s.o. Makes one wonder how effective these factory is.

Markus

A country led by mafia (kleptocracy) is never gone to produce anything when it is already stolen on the way to the factory after the factory it will be stolen already seen empty shells arriving at the front.

[Otto Harkaman]

[Catfish]

^ Excellent! I hope Putin sees that. And believes it

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Otto Harkaman

So Ukraine failed because it did not do what the west expected without equipment needed, but Russian can and win after at least 3 failed offensives? Not the brightest crayon in the box, are we?