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#76 | ||
Ocean Warrior
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And you make a good point here KS. This will bring unwanted hostilities to China if they were to misalign themselves by backing Russia here in totality. I don't think china's willing to do it for that reason as well. Quote:
![]() On other fronts, Skybird has made no good points at all. He has positioned Russia in a advantageous role, where none exists for Russia here. Russia has stupidly made things come to pass for themselves that they desperately did not want. And there's more to come. They have over-estimated the support they would get from China, not being able to see the realities there. And yet they continue. If they're looking at the long term through their current actions, then Russia has very stupid leadership. They're digging themselves into a big hole, and yet getting nothing for it. Even today one of the so called break-aways have said they won't be a part of Russia. I don't think Russia is thinking at all.....they're posturing. And theyre not getting any positive results from it. They're simply making enemies and putting themselves into a position of total isolation. Last edited by Sea Demon; 08-28-08 at 04:35 PM. |
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#77 | ||
Soaring
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http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe...war/index.html http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7586605.stm there are several points that prevent this being wiped off the table too easily. 1. there is at least one case that could work as a precedent. during the Iran-hostage crisis, Republicans had established a secret deal with Iran to not free the hostages before the elections had been held and Reagun won against Carter. that way, Carter was prevented from taking advantage of the PR success of being the one politician who brought home america'S hostages. reagan was celebrated for having freed the hostages, while Carters months of work were minimised, and his role ridiculed. He got betrayed by the Republican party by use of dirty tricks that went at the cost of those american hostages who could have been freed much earlier. 2. Rice is reported to have send contradciting signals, saying she had warned Georgia's Uber-Trottel Saakashvilli of using force, but obviously the warnings fell on deaf ears - if internally such warnings ever were given for sure. It would not be the first time that a female diplomat sends contradicting signals to a foreign regime (remember Hussein 1990). If that was intentional, or not, we will never be allowed to know. 3. As a matter of fact, there have been and there are american troops present in Georgia, before the war there were 150 advisors and around 1000 combat troops joining in maneuvres with Georgian troops - who after the maneuver did not move back into their barracks, but immediately from the maneuver ground relocated to their attack positions from which they launched their assault just weeks later. Same was true for Russian troops conducting exercises at the same time - they too did not return home but relocated into psoitions from which they could reach the peacekeeopers in the province quickly. As the following chronic argues, there is no reason how anyone oin europe could have gooten surprised by the outbreak of war. That so many were surprised indeed shows the widespread dilletantism of today's spectacular and competent political leaders. They SHOULD have seen it coming, really. Quote:
In this conflict, america is as much concerned about democracy and freedom for Georgia, as is Russia really interested in the fate of the South Ossetians. Both these reasons given are just salvos in the propaganda war. That'S why the US is lining up with such a hysteric idiot like Saakashvilli who is everything but a democratic or competent ruler, and that is why the Kremlin so stubbornly defends it's stand in the region against American demands to claim it for the West, which means nothing else than: for American influence. "Democracy", and "independence for supressed Ossetians" in the end have nothing to do with both nation's true interests. Only hopeless idealists and determined nationalists, who uncritically embrace everything their countries say and do, can seriously believe these popular fairy-tales. Intelligence operations - their major duty is not to guard against the enemy, but to deceive the own public, and hindering it to know what it should not know, without letting the public ever realise that it got manipulated into believing what it should believe.
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If you feel nuts, consult an expert. Last edited by Skybird; 08-28-08 at 04:53 PM. |
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#78 | |||||
Ocean Warrior
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"Currently, russian investements are buying off Western corporation shares like crazy, with incredible sums of money. Only the Gulf states and china surpass them. They seem to follow the same tactic like the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia: biting off a big enough share of western industry to have a word in its control and in the future, when they run thin on oil and gas (we are talking 20, 30 years btw), they will shave off the cream from industrial profits they make with ex-western companies that are not so exclusively western-owned, then. Then WE will work for THEM, and for the Arabs. Serves us right, stupidly bragging as we do." "So let's see who will grin wider in the end. I don't bet my money on the West. We need them more than they need us - and that is a bad start to begin a match with." http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/show...=141010&page=2 This is something i am positive will never happen. EU and US will not let it happen and contrary to Skys belief, they dont have to. So we disagree, not much to argue after that is established. Quote:
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In a modern world its hard to have exatcly the same kind of dictatorship as you had in the 40s. Critisising Kremlin privatly isnt a threat to them, but im sure it will stop many careers and opportunities. A threat it becomes when one tries to get this message out through politics or dissidency. Political rights and civil liberties are almost gone in Russia and the trend isnt up. You must know that the free media you claim is plenty, doesnt reach practically anyone in Russia, hence it isnt a threat. |
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#79 |
Ocean Warrior
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I cant believe Skybird that you would suggest this is part of McCains campaign?
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#80 | |
Soaring
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There is nothing I do not think they are capable of. Politics is a dirty business, cynism and lies are considered to be good tone. The glorious speeches are just for the crowd. Never trust them. Panem et circensis. Regarding Putin'S accusation - as I said, if he is right, then we will not be allowed to know. And if he is wrong, we will not know either. He has interferred with the US elections before in 2004, claiming he had evidence for Irqi nukes. that way he helped Bush being elected.
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If you feel nuts, consult an expert. |
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#81 |
Wayfaring Stranger
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Skybird will happly write bald faced lies and pure propaganda if it supports his normal anti American argument. Take this business about a GoP deal with Iran in 1979 for instance. Nothing but unproven allegations yet he acts as though it were somehow an established fact.
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#82 | |
Ocean Warrior
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#83 | |
Ace of the Deep
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However, I'll still grade him one up over the chest-beaters led by SD. If instead of "we have superior economic power", he says "we have superior military power" (which is true, especialy if you count the US), the sheer primitiveness of his basic thrust will be apparent to all. But really it is fundamentally the same thing. They call that V-whatever guy who's now President of Russia warmongering, but how can he beat some of the members of our wonder group! SD and Skybird can fight all day about whether Russia (the holder of the primary industry) or Europe (who holds the secondary and tertiary) can hurt each other more if it came down to it. Both sides might be able to partially reroute if it came down to a fight. But that isn't the point. The point is, both can put a good deal of hurt into the other side, as SD acknowledges in another thread. Again, if SD and Skybird were discussing who can hurt the other more if a nuclear war or conventional military conflict occurred, we'll see the primitiveness of going down that road. Further, Skybird actually at least tries to understand the relative willpower (of acceptable "hurt") the two sides are willing to put in over this issue. And I think it is beyond argument that Georgia is a h*ll of a lot more important to Russia than NATO. If there is one side that might be willing to throw all to the winds, it'll likely be Russia (we are talking their national security vs "just another country for the bag"), so why does SD think it'll be Russia that backs off first? Given that Georgia or even the Ukraine, ultimately, is not too important to NATO, realpolitik, which is what Skybird advocates (rather than "pro-Russian" propaganda), virtually mandates that West's response be very limited. Roaring and condemnation, of course, they'll do and they are executing. But real action? Military's out, that seems set. Sanctions? For all the roaring, the closest thing that came out of the smoke seems to be the Visa thing, which frankly, as far as sanctions go, sounds like a wrist slap, and even that's only being considered. When Iraq hit Kuwait in 1990, UN Resolution 660 was passed w/i hours of the invasion, and within days they passed 661, and almost as fast Desert Shield began. Now, it is something like three weeks since the fighting started, and we are still in the Noise phase. Looks like SB is going to get more of his prediction through after all. The West does not, in a realpolitik sense, want to find out who gets hurt worse in a economic fight. Thus, we see lots of noise and condemnations, and the slowest of actual motions. If threats were reality, we'll probably be dead from all the nuclear threats made by now... Finally, it is people like SB, who tries out other ways of tallying up the score, to place themselves in other people's shoes, that will understand other nations like Russia, be it to befriend her or to stop her more effectively, to pinch her where her leaders would agree it hurts. As for the whole "push the other nations into NATO's bag" thing? Those nations were gone to begin with. Putin's only choices are a) have them proceed with anti-Russian policies while smiling at Russia, b) have them proceed with anti-Russian policies while frowning at Russia, and c) have them scared stiff of Russia enough they cease. (D: They stop being anti-Russia because they like Russia, had already been tried from 1990 onwards and proved to only turn into A). SD's perception is typical Westerner - even a small improvement in relationships is worth it even if decisions don't change much. Russia's perception, based on action, is more like A and B are not very different, and so there's nothing real to lose there, and any chance of C is worth shooting for. |
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#84 | |
Ocean Warrior
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![]() On the other matter, Russia understands the inevitability of the situation anyway. You're saying making enemies out of NATO, and in particular the USA is beneficial to Russia? You're supporting the point of view that NATO is hostile to Russia by treating former Soviet client nations as sovereign nations. Does making friends with former enemies truly threaten Russia? Or is it just deep seeded paranoia? Are these nations actually sovereign nations to you Kazuaki, or are they merely slave states to Russia who should only serve Russia's interests even at the expense of their own? Are you serious? The thing is Kazuaki, Russia is like that abusive and jealous ex-husband who used to beat his wife...and now tries to prevent her from seeking other relationships, and indeed turns to stalking her. Then wonders why nobody likes him or thinks he's creepy. We're talking about sovereign nations Kazuaki. I don't give a rat's rear end who's point of view you're looking at it from. Either you respect the right of nations to make decisions for themselves and their own interests.....or you can be like Russia who does not respect the rights of sovereign nations and attempts forced coercion through military threats. Russia is stupidly choosing to make enemies out of those who were not enemies at all. And that includes NATO and the USA. NATO even offered them a seat at the table as an observer with the US blessing. And of course Russia screwed that up. If Russia was smart, and NATO membership in these former states was inevitable, wouldn't it be alot smarter to actually use that seat as a way towards nominal relations? I think that actually sounds quite reasonable really. You simply cannot quibble any of this away. Nor can you make yourself look like an unbiased source looking at it "from all perspectives" yourself. If you believe that Russia is proceeding smartly by breaking their cease fire agreements brokered by the French, is proceeding smartly by increasing their likelihood of economic isolation (perhaps you believe like Skybird that Russia is greater economically than most of the developed nations and needs no trade, no technology sharing or transfers, no food imports, or no lucrative commercial contracts etc. etc. etc. ),or if you believe they have proceeded smartly by turning themselves into a hostile player against those they wished to revolve around it's orbit...and now have helped bring NATO right next door (and have ticked them off to boot), then I guess I'll just have to disagree with you. I can see how Russia has made all the things they didn't want actually come to fruition. What a mess Russia has made for itself. If you can't see it, that's fine with me. |
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#85 | |
Ocean Warrior
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#86 | ||
Ace of the Deep
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B, in turn is only very bad if it causes additional unfavorable actions that would otherwise not have been taken. For example, say America asks next to put an "anti-Iran" bomber wing in Poland... If you believe that Poland would have refused if not for Georgia, then that's Russia's loss. If you believe it'll have happened either way, it's a draw. But if Poland decides to be wary of Russia and refuses, then to Russia, that's a much better result than if Poland smiles at Russia and agrees to the bomber wing, no? But don't be too grim about this. For one thing, the West had a part to play in telling Russia that A doesn't get them very far. Skybird might start from Kosovo and 1999, but I think the lesson the West has been teaching Russia in that regard actually started in the Gorbachev era, with CFE and Intermediate-Forces Treaty. For another thing, B leading to C does not mean the close-off of D. D is the ideal result to both realists and idealists. If anything, if Russia actually gets to C, then D will become their natural goal as per realpolitik, and that might well bring a happier ending to all. B->C->D is a perfectly plausible policy. It takes skill to play well, but Germany and Japan are actually examples of BCD, and if Iraq works out, it'll be BCD as well. Admittedly Russkies are not historically great at BCD, but if they are shooting for D, well, that attempt is already good, no? |
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#87 | ||
Ocean Warrior
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And in the interests of fairness, I do wish we would ask Russia for direct talks to address some of their concerns. Or Russia would calm the hell down, and request the same of us instead of their stupid rhetoric. In other words go back to where we were before. We were addressing their concerns, but they didn't respect our answers, nor have they shown respect for their neighbor's sovereignty and national interests. If Russia got their troops out of Georgia, and the USA agreed to state to state talks to seriously address Russia's concerns, this whole thing could be rectified. In the same vein, Russia needs to understand as well, that they cannot dictate to the USA, and other sovereign Eastern European nations whom they can form friendships or alliances with. Or what security agreements we come to mutually. If they come to work from that view...and accept that they do not rule the countries they border anymore, they might actually get somewhere. Otherwise they'll continue down this path and stand to lose more. |
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#88 | ||
Ocean Warrior
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Tough im sure many here believe in that also, mostly the same people that accuse me of fasicm. |
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#89 | |
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Think I've gotten enough of your personal insults, hurting lies about me and slanderings regarding my person, SD, because that's what your attacks and claims about me are. Off to my ignore-list you go. It's not about differing opinion. It is about bad behavior, and about you trying to promote your views by setting up lies and slanderings about people opposing your opinion. Maybe tricks like that are acceptable in your world. But not in mine.
And now again, given for the third time, for the rest of the crowd: Quote:
It is sad that often a few bullies only are enough to ruin a thread for al others.
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If you feel nuts, consult an expert. Last edited by Skybird; 08-29-08 at 04:22 AM. |
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#90 | |||
Soaring
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If you feel nuts, consult an expert. |
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