Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Putin needs the war for survival. I think if he makes a peace deal he is as good as dead.


And isnt the ceasefire only for actions in the air and on the sea?

No, Zelenskyy had rigged a proposal for a first step towards a ceasefire, namely stopping air strikes and attacks on the Black Sea. The Americans then said: let's make it a complete ceasefire. That has been agreed on today.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Putin needs the war for survival. I think if he makes a peace deal he is as good as dead.


And isnt the ceasefire only for actions in the air and on the sea?

What I understand is that the deal is 30 days ceasefire on the entire frontline. It does not say anything about limitations to air and sea.

Markus

[Dargo]

So this is going to be literally the 26th attempt to declare an armistice in the Russian war on Ukraine since 2014-2015. Putin violated the previous 25 declarations of ceasefire. They will violate it rather quickly, blame Ukraine, and then claim they tried peace, but it didn’t work because of Zelenskyy.

[Platapus]

And some people here will believe that

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Platapus

And some people here will believe that

Even though I'm a Pro-Ukrainian I have hard to believe it was Russia who violated every ceasefire since start of the war in 2014.

Markus

[Exocet25fr]

Remember when I said these F-16s models are obsolete.....!

Ukrainian F-16s cannot compete with Russian Su-35s – Ihnat explains the reason. According to him, a comprehensive approach involving ground-based air defense systems, EW (electronic warfare) tools, and much more is needed to counter Russian aviation.

https://tsn.ua/en/ato/ukrainian-f-16...n-2785392.html

[Reece]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Even though I'm a Pro-Ukrainian I have hard to believe it was Russia who violated every ceasefire since start of the war in 2014.

Markus

Believe it Markus!! One good thing is if Putin violates/refuses it at least Ukraine will get its support back!

[Skybird]

Depending on sources and the defintion of ceasefirings, ther ehave been 20-25 thosuand ceasefires since 2014. Ukriane broke them,Russia broke them, and it seems Russia broke them far mor eoften and seriously.
But nobody can provide exact numbers, nobody.

[Reece]

I was right then!!

[Skybird]

[Focus] Members of the Russian State Duma and military bloggers react with horror to the proposals of the Ukrainian-American peace summit. “A ceasefire is definitely not what we need,” says the far-right Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin, whose visions Vladimir Putin also listens to time and again.

The military blog Woennyj Oswedomitel believes that the Ukrainians only wanted to “take a long-awaited breather and replenish their army with personnel, equipment and weapons”.

Propaganda reporter Alexander Koz put it even more drastically. “Shove your peace initiatives up your asses!” he wrote. Ukraine had been sent conditions for peace negotiations. It had responded to these with new attacks. “The message has been received.”

After the Russians had recently been almost enthusiastic about Donald Trump's announcements, the assessments now sound somewhat different. “Donald Trump is yet to show his true colors. Joe Biden, on the other hand, will end up looking like a benevolent grandfather,” says propaganda reporter Roman Saponkov.

Political scientist Sergei Markov therefore demanded that the ceasefire would only be agreed to if there was an arms embargo against Ukraine at the same time. This would then not apply to Russia.[/quote]
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No surprises. Has anyone assumed the Russians were stupid?

The heavyweight comment in the above is that of Dugin.

In the end Trump maybe is more about playing for his home audience than the substance of things happening in Ukraine.


^If it is nto all staged by Trunmp anyway. I could imaginen a scenario where Russia now demands more concessions by Ukriane and Trump starting to dictate right these concessions to Ukraine to realise that ceasefire.

[mapuc]

Ukraine have lost Kursk and are now in retreat-This is what has been said in the news here.

Now the question is: Was it a good idea in the first place to invade Russia ?

Markus

[Skybird]

"Außer Spesen nix gewesen."


They could not afford the losses they had there, in total, while Russia can. So I stick to my initial assessment from the beginning of the operation: a strategic desaster. Yes, Russian losses were higher, probably. But again: the Russians can afford such losses, Ukraine cannot.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Ukraine have lost Kursk and are now in retreat-This is what has been said in the news here.

Now the question is: Was it a good idea in the first place to invade Russia ?

Markus

Yes it has cost a lot of resources and troops for Russia, North Korea and military, this was an opportunity that any army in the world would act on. If you see a weak spot you attack that was/is the whole story, any army would make that decision.

[Dargo]

Hans van Koningsbrugge (Professor of History and Politics of Russia University of Groningen) that after attempts to stall for time, the Russian president will eventually reject the offer to temporarily silence the weapons. ‘This proposal is intended for the Americans as a stepping stone to eventually ending the war,’ he says. ‘But for Russia, none of the goals of that war have already been achieved and the ‘root causes’ of the war have not been addressed. In particular, the four annexed Ukrainian oblasts have not been fully conquered, even though they are enshrined in the Russian constitution as Russian territory. In the meantime, the Russian economy is shattered, hundreds of thousands have died, and now they should stop fighting? While Russia hates having to do anything imposed from outside anyway.’ According to Van Koningsbrugge, it is clear that President Putin is in a difficult position. ‘Russia has always opposed a temporary ceasefire, with the reasoning that Ukraine has to accept ‘the reality on the ground’ first. Moreover, Moscow says it would give Ukraine time to train its troops and collect weapons from the West. ‘If Putin now suddenly says yes anyway, he is showing weakness. If he says no, he will be dismissed as the party standing in the way of peace and get Trump and the United States on his ass. It is an impossible choice, the Russians are not in a good position.’

Mart de Kruif, former commander of the Dutch Land Forces, warns that Putin's ambitions are still the same as three years ago. ‘Russia has spent three years using all its resources to control Ukraine politically, financially, militarily and economically. It has not succeeded. Stopping now would mean that all those sacrifices have been for nothing, so Putin is not going to do that.’ On the front, Russia did manage to achieve renewed success on Wednesday in its border region of Kursk, where Ukrainian resistance now appears to be all but broken. It is likely that the last Ukrainians will be driven out of the region in the coming days, which would be a success for Russia. ‘But apart from that, things are not going well militarily for the Russian army,’ says De Kruif. ‘It is barely making any progress, quite the opposite. So rationally, you could argue that Putin too needs a ceasefire.’ De Kruif warns that Europe ‘a ceasefire could put Europe back to sleep and weaken the initiatives to strengthen the continent again on the defence front’. ‘I don't rule out the possibility that a ceasefire will bring back discussions on whether we really need to spend 800 billion euros on defence. Putin will be happy to see that happen. ‘We should absolutely not confuse a ceasefire with a peace treaty. We are nowhere near that yet,’ De Kruif adds. ‘Since the Russian invasion of Crimea and the Donbas in 2014, there have already been several cease-fires, which Russia has violated each time and which eventually led to the 2022 invasion. That is why Ukraine also wants cast-iron guarantees.’

[Jimbuna]