Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[mapuc]

Didn't knew Ukraine already got fighter jets from France.



Markus

[Skybird]

Sounds to me as if Kursk is now collapsing.
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[NTV] The Russians are making massive advances in the Kursk region, parts of the pocket have collapsed. Now the Ukrainian troops must try to get out safely, Colonel Reisner tells ntv.de, and also explains how the lack of help from the USA is forcing the Ukrainians to attack blindly.

ntv.de: Mr. Reisner, in the past few days the Russians have very quickly recaptured a lot of territory in the Kursk area. How could that happen? What is making the Ukrainians so weak there at the moment?

Markus Reisner: Of the almost 400 square kilometers that the Ukrainians still occupied a week ago, they now only control around 150 to 200. The entire northern part of the pocket has collapsed. There are several reasons for this: Firstly, the Ukrainians have not managed to achieve even local air superiority in recent months. Although they have repeatedly shot down Russian drones, Moscow's army has air superiority. Their constant bombardment with glide bombs, artillery and drones has worn down the Ukrainians. In recent days, Russian troops have managed to get underground behind the Ukrainian lines. They marched several kilometers through a gas pipeline underground and then suddenly appeared behind the defenders' lines. This was a nasty surprise for the Ukrainians.

Moreover, had the Russians also interrupted an important supply line? We have already talked about this several times here.

Yes, about four weeks ago the Russians managed to fire on the supply route near Kiyaniyza with first-person view drones. In doing so, they actually interrupted not an important, but the most important supply route to Sudja into the Kursk Pocket. The troops there were thus cut off from supplies. And Sudja is not just any city, but the central logistics hub from which the Ukrainians have distributed supplies in the Kursk Pocket in recent months. The moment the Russians managed to do this, it was clear: If the Ukrainians could not replace the interrupted route with another supply route, the troops in the pocket would not be able to hold off the enemy for much longer.

Another indication of how important logistics are in war?

Without supplies of ammunition, equipment, and equipment, without the ability to rotate soldiers and transport the wounded, you cannot hold out at the front for long. The history of war is full of examples of how quickly things can then happen. At the same time, the Russians continued to put pressure on the pocket, as if in a pincer grip. From the northwest by Russian paratrooper units and from the southeast by marine infantry units.

Are the Ukrainians now in danger of being encircled there in Sudja?

The first retreats on the Ukrainian side began a month ago. At the moment, the troops are still holding a small part of the pocket. I see no signs that they are attempting a counterattack. On the contrary. Everything indicates that the entire pocket will soon be taken over by the Russians. Now the Ukrainians must do everything in their power to withdraw in as structured a manner as possible. Videos from there show, however, that this is only partially successful. I think the Ukrainians will try to hold the area at least until the talks between the USA and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia are over. They are supposed to take place this week. If Sudja falls, the battle for Kursk will be lost in my view.

If you say that a structured withdrawal is only partially successful: What does that look like?

We see that the Ukrainian soldiers are withdrawing in small convoys. That is a clear sign of the Ukrainian withdrawal order. Where the soldiers can no longer move forward with the vehicles, they dismount and try to fight their way to the border in small groups. All of this under observation and attacks by Russian drones.

Are we then talking about an escape on foot?

Ultimately, yes. The pocket is bordered by some bodies of water towards the Russian border. The Russians are trying to to destroy the last intact bridges or Ukrainian engineer bridges and thus cut off the Ukrainians' route of retreat. As soon as forces build up in front of the bridges, the Russians attack with artillery, glide bombs or first-person view drones. The Ukrainian soldiers who survive these attacks must surrender or try to escape on foot. It is now just a matter of getting out of the pocket as unscathed as possible and saving their own lives.

If the Ukrainians manage to reach the border with their homeland, are they safe for now?

Not necessarily. The decisive factor will then be that the Ukrainians can receive these returning units in a structured manner, that the fighters can refresh themselves, be re-equipped and given a chance to recover. To do this, however, there must be at least some kind of provisionally manned defense or delaying line there on the border so that the Russians do not immediately advance further.

Conversely, this means that if things go really badly, could the Kursk offensive by the Ukrainians lead to a Russian counter-offensive on Ukrainian territory? What if the Russians could cross the border and then just keep marching?

That is certainly possible if the Ukrainians cannot retreat in an orderly manner and are not intercepted by the units that have been deployed. If neither of these things succeeds, the Russians can simply keep advancing until they encounter a stable line of defense. The worst that can happen with such a retreat is that chaos and panic break out.

Parallel to the dramatic reports from the Kursk front, the USA announced at the weekend that it was now also cutting off Ukraine from its findings from satellites and special reconnaissance aircraft. Are you already seeing the consequences at the front?

Using the reconnaissance of the Istar sensors - Istar stands for Intelligence Surveillance Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance - the USA has so far tracked down potential targets for Ukraine over great distances. Russian command posts, for example, jammers, anti-aircraft devices, logistics hubs, ammunition depots, command posts or concentrations of forces. This enabled the Ukrainians to act very precisely with their very limited resources. This is no longer the case.

And without US reconnaissance, the Ukrainians are blind?

In this area, yes. At the operational level, they can hardly generate the situation picture they need to hit the Russians in precisely these sensitive areas. Being blind also means that the Ukrainians can no longer see what the Russians are preparing. They have to assume that the Russians could attack at any time on any possible front and no longer have the opportunity to concentrate their forces. The loss of US reconnaissance has no effect on the short range, i.e. on the tactical level, where in the individual combat zones there are often only a handful of Ukrainians fighting against a handful of Russians. In the area of ​​less than 50 to 60 kilometers from the front, the Ukrainians can still reconnoiter the enemy with their own drones and keep them at a certain distance with first-person view drones and artillery. Behind that, things are now getting very difficult.

Are there alternatives to the US satellites?

The Trump administration has also instructed the British and the private satellite operator Maxar to stop providing satellite images to Ukraine.

No one will probably oppose such an order?

The US government can exert enough pressure to ensure that such orders are followed. At the same time, the US special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, made a very drastic statement: He compared Ukraine to a stubborn mule that needs to be hit on the nose with a log to make it understand what to do. That is not the language that allies should speak, but nothing is surprising these days. It seems that the US is currently exerting significantly more pressure on Kiev than on the Kremlin.

[mapuc]

While they lose ground in Kursk Oblast, they are gaining ground around Pokrovsk.

Markus

[Skybird]

Yes, Pokrovsk is a bit surprising. I think its less the Ukrainians having grown strenght there, but Russia having gone a bit on the weaker side there.

Or the Russians withhold forces to prepare a spring offensive. That would be my guess. There are rumours they launch one in April.

[mapuc]

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Kremlin expects to receive information from US on outcome of talks with Ukraine in Saudi Arabia - Peskov

The USA plans to inform Russia about the results of the talks with Ukraine to be held in Saudi Arabia.

This was stated by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Censor.NET reports with reference to the Russian news agency "Interfax".

Peskov noted that the American side, which is seeking a peaceful settlement, will ‘somehow’ inform Russia about the outcome of the talks.

"Today there will be US-Ukrainian contacts in Jeddah. Somehow the American side, which is looking for ways to reach a peaceful settlement, will inform us," Peskov said.

He added that the Kremlin would announce this when it receives the relevant information.

As a reminder, today, 11 March 2025, a meeting between the Ukrainian and American delegations begins in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3540447

66% of Ukrainians believe that Russia’s goal is to destroy Ukraine and Ukrainians - KIIS poll

66% of Ukrainians believe that Russia is seeking to destroy Ukraine and the Ukrainian people.

This is according to a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), Censor.NET reports.

According to the survey, 28% of respondents believe that Russia seeks the physical destruction of Ukrainians, and another 38% are convinced that Russia's goal is to destroy Ukrainian statehood and nation by seizing most of the territory.

In addition, 14% of respondents believe that Russia seeks to establish a puppet government after capturing most of Ukraine's territory, and 7% believe that Russia will limit itself to capturing Donbas, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Only 4% of respondents believe that Russia seeks to retain the already occupied territories, while 3% chose the option of ‘denazification’ and demilitarisation. 7% of respondents were undecided.

"Our polls show that the greater the threat Ukrainians feel, the more they are inclined to continue resistance and reject unacceptable demands. Accordingly, the spread of the narrative and the belief that Russia has ‘limited’ its goals and/or is ready for peace on ‘compromise’ terms may undermine the internal readiness to continue the struggle," the researchers noted.

KIIS Executive Director Anton Hrushetskyi stressed that despite the fatigue from the war, the majority of Ukrainians are categorically against peace ‘on any terms’. According to him, this is due to a sense of existential threat.

"Ukrainians are quite flexible and ready to discuss even painful options for ending the war. At the same time, Ukrainians are ready to continue to defend their ‘red lines’ (which are the survival of the Ukrainian nation, preservation of sovereignty and security guarantees) and are definitely not going to simply lay down their arms and surrender to the enemy," he added.

As noted, the survey was conducted from 14 February to 4 March 2025 by telephone interviews (CATI). The study involved 1,029 respondents living in the government-controlled territory of Ukraine. The statistical error does not exceed 4.1% for figures close to 50%. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3540444

[Dargo]

US-Ukrainian negotiations in Saudi Arabia are over for today after eight hours. In a joint statement, negotiators report that the talks went well, and it was decided that the US will again share intelligence with Ukraine. Military support will also be provided to the country again. Ukraine is also ready to accept a US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire and to take steps towards a lasting peace. The resource deal between Ukraine and the US could also be reinstated. That deal had still fallen through during the clash between Trump and Zelenskyy in the White House. ‘The ball is now in Russia's camp,’ US Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared.

[Jimbuna]

Your quick...post deleted

[Jimbuna]

Vladimir Putin's three ridiculous demands to finally end Ukraine invasion in full

Vladimir Putin has laid out the three things that would see him pull back his troops from Ukraine.

Senior US and Ukrainian officials are getting ready to sit down in Saudi Arabia for talks centred on bringing the war to a halt three years after Putin first ordered Russian boots on Ukrainian soil. President Volodymyr Zelensky has sent his chief of staff Andriy Yermak to meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Yermak says that Ukraine is "ready to do everything to achieve peace". But tyrant Putin has "made deliberately maximalist demands" in the lead up to the negotiations, it's been claimed.

Citing western security officials, the feeling is that "there is no indication Putin is willing to compromise on any of his goals", and happy to continue fighting - throwing more and more Russian citizens into the meat grinder - if "he does not get what he wants".

Putin has demanded Ukraine "must formally commit to neutrality, abandon any ambition to join NATO, demilitarise and recognise Russian claims to annexed territory", Bloomberg reports. Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov has already "ruled out European peacekeepers" being sent in to keep the situation under control.

If these claims are true, Putin may have hoodwinked US leader President Trump into thinking he wanted peace, and that Ukraine was the warmongering state, at their meeting earlier this year.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer told US president Donald Trump he wanted the talks to have a "positive outcome" that would see military aid and intelligence-sharing resume when the pair spoke on Monday. The US leader paused the supply of weapons and crucial information for Kyiv's war effort following his public spat with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky.

Meanwhile, military chiefs from potential members of the so-called "coalition of the willing" will meet in Paris, with French officials indicating around 30 countries could take part. Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin will attend for the UK before Defence Secretary John Healey meets opposite numbers from France, Germany, Italy and Poland in the French capital on Wednesday.

The PM is meeting ministers for Cabinet on Tuesday before leading a call with like-minded allies from the "coalition of the willing" on Saturday. The call will involve leaders who have expressed an interest in contributing to or supporting a peacekeeping mission to deter Russia's Vladimir Putin from launching a future attempt to conquer Ukraine if a deal to end the conflict is reached.

The meeting of defence ministers will also be attended by representatives from Nato and the European Union, with Ukraine's Rustem Umerov dialling in. Not all the nations involved in the "coalition of the willing" are expected to commit to join a peacekeeping force, although they could offer logistical help for troops in Ukraine or other forms of support.

The PM has stressed the need for Mr Trump's US to provide a "backstop" security guarantee, a commitment to intervene if a European-led peacekeeping mission comes under threat. Hours before talks were due to begin, Russia's defence ministry said it had shot down 337 drones that had targeted more than 10 regions, including the capital city, in what appears to be the largest Ukrainian drone attack of the war.

Moscow region governor Andrei Vorobyov said one person had been killed and three injured as a result of the attack, which also damaged seven apartment buildings in Ramensky, one of the capital's south-eastern suburbs.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...5b198fad0&ei=9

[Dargo]

The US said in a statement that it was a 30-day ceasefire, which could be extended if Ukraine and Russia agree. ‘The US will let Russia know that they must agree in order to end the war and achieve long-term peace,’ the statement said. Trump says talks will be held with Russia today or tomorrow. The statement shows that other parts of the peace process have also been discussed in Saudi Arabia. For instance, Ukrainian prisoners are to be exchanged for Russian prisoners, and Russia is to return abducted Ukrainian children. Zelenskyy thanked US President Donald Trump for the ‘constructive talks’ between US and Ukrainian mediators, stating that ‘the US understands our interests’. 'The most important thing is that we are again supported by the Americans. They now have to convince Russia to agree to the truce,' Zelenskyy said. According to Zelenskyy, the 30-day ceasefire would cover not only missiles, drones, and bombs, but also extend across the entire front line, including the Black Sea.

First reaction of the Kremlin:
The Russian Federation will not go to a 30-day truce, as it will only allow Ukraine to regroup and rearm, - State Duma deputy of the Russian Federation Sobolev.

[mapuc]

Take for what it is-An action packed YT video-No way Europe will place boots on the ground in Ukraine



Markus

[Skybird]

I am not certain when it was, feels like it was around one and a half year ago, when Putin said that Russia would never accept a just temporary ceasefire, since such a ceasefire would neither acchieve the "special operations" objectives nor would it benefit Russia in any other way. Then he repeated his maximum demands, and never has a Kremlin speaker ever moved away even a tiny little bit from these.



All this mumbo jumbo of today is just stage thunder to me.

[Dargo]

I do not think Putin changed, he is still the same so will demand the same terms as he wanted +10 years ago. Hope he will do this and this fires back like all his gambles did. The Kremlin does not want a peace if it survives this or not, their intentions were/are never peace.

[mapuc]

Looking from Putins point-of-view I somehow understand him.

His troops have the momentum in Kursk Oblast. A 30 days ceasefire would give Ukraine time to regroup and get fresh soldiers, weapons and ammo to the front.

Otherwise I do not understand him-He has everything to lose and only a small victory in Kursk.

As I see it he has already lost the war.

Markus

[Skybird]

Putin needs the war for survival. I think if he makes a peace deal he is as good as dead.


And isnt the ceasefire only for actions in the air and on the sea?