Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Catfish

It is "a bit" unfair to put the blame on Germany when it comes to deliver tanks (i mean REAL tanks like MBTs) to Ukraine.
Not one western country has done this before, and Germany is only ready to act in case all agree. But not all do.
A lot of soviet age tanks have been supplied by Poland and the Czech Repubic, but not MODERN tanks, at all. I still wish Germany had.

But then i have to listen to speeches by Sarah Wagenknecht of "Die Linke"
So ridiculous. They claim to be left, but they support Russia? Russia is anything but "left", it is ruled by an egomanic dictator who's only purpose seems to be bringing imperialism back from the 19th century. So why does she support this?
Obviously she likes absolutist systems and gives a F. about being "left".

The German company Rheinmetall has resumed 16 Marder infantry fighting vehicles for Ukraine, but deliveries are not yet possible due to obstacles from Berlin. It is noted that Rheinmetall has resumed 16 SUVs at its own expense, but the federal government does not issue a license for their export to Ukraine. https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/st...11606245769218

It is good Ukraine has a new 1st class supplier since this week strange that Russia is the main supplier of heavy weapons and Germany refuses

[mapuc]

From Kyiv Independent

Mayor: Russian forces retreating from occupied Melitopol to Crimea. Ivan Fedorov, the mayor of occupied Melitopol city in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, said that columns of Russian military hardware were detected further south in Chonhar, a village in Kherson Oblast, located at the entrance to occupied Crimea.

Pentagon has seen 'a number of Russian forces' cross back into Russia in Kharkiv Oblast. According to CNN, Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said that some Russian forces have crossed the border from Kharkiv Oblast back into Russia, as they retreated during Ukraine’s counteroffensive. But Russian forces still “do exist en masse in Ukraine,” Ryder said.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

From Kyiv Independent



Markus

Good how quickly it degenerated into a chaotic ‘every man for himself’ rout and lesser troops for a defense line, Russian's worst defeat since WW II.

[Dargo]

Mayor: Russian forces retreating from occupied Melitopol to Crimea.

Ivan Fedorov, the mayor of Melitopol city in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, said that columns of Russian military hardware were detected further south in Chonhar, a village in Kherson Oblast at the entrance to Crimea. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/...76560630005760

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Good how quickly it degenerated into a chaotic ‘every man for himself’ rout and lesser troops for a defense line, Russian's worst defeat since WW II.

The military and political leaders in Russia has a huge task in front of them

Redesign the army

Markus

[Skybird]

Right now while the Ukrainians have big success on the battlefield, Bubble Olaf calls Putin after a long break and tells him to allow diplomatic solutions by withdrawing first. At the same time repeated and inceasingly urgent calls by Kyiv for Germna anks and IFVs get oince again catgeoriclaly uzrled out by him and his carrictaure of a defenc emionsutress who boast at the same time that Germany is willing to take a military lead role in Europe. Why the Ukrainian demands become increwainglky urgent? Because they run out of ammo and spare parts for Sovjet made weapons and platforms and so must increasingly turn to Western equipment to be able to continue to fight. Also, the yhave the momentum but can only continue to make use of it if they can move forces quickly with moving supporting firepower for such troops movements quickly as well: so,m they need APCs/IFVs, and tanks.

German Rheinmetall said they have 16 Marder IFVs finalised for immediate delivery, and now finish 14 more Marders, and could prepare 70 more Marder sin short time.

How tio make sens eof this timing? I fear bad things. I fear Bubble Olaf fears Russian anger nif the yget beaten too badly, and so he does not want Ukrainian victories, but a "diplomatic" solution- which of course only makes sense to be called that if the ukrainians accept to talk about letting Russia annex more of their land.Scholz weants a negiotiated "peace" like this to go back to business as usual with Russia na dhave deliveries of anything form Russia coming back to normal - and maybe also having Germany, this "big military lead power in Europe" (in his reality-disconnected bubble-thinking)havign a role as mediator and briliant diplomat again,l like Germany and France already traded the Crimea to Russia in negotiations with Ukriane in 2015 which was still too weak back then to reject this favour.

A very underhanded double play I fear is running here.

Washington has singleled very lcerly they have no objecttiosn whatever toi gerkan deliveries if armour to Ukraine - Bubble OlAaf's excuse all time long is that eh woukld act not alone and only in close cooridnaiton with "the allkiues". In fact he si hgiding behind a lie about Washington's claimed stand, and other (Western) European powers hide behind Germany. And in this way Bubble Olaf has secured his goal of that the Ukraine does not get heavy armour of Western types.

I put it clearly what I think: Scholz wants to break the ukrainian momentum, and he wants to prevent a clear Russian defeat. Maybe he also wants to rpevent th ekurian beocming a NAOT and EU emeber ever, becasue foi you look at iots size, its population, its military ability and its rhich ressources and relvqnce ans a bread basket of the world, it would be a heavy weight entering the EU union and would fundamentally shift he power balances inside the block - at the cost of Germany, and France.

Its intrestign to see that the further away Wetsenr Europenba n atiosn are for Russia, the mroe fear they idnoicate of nculear war, or pretend to be worrie dbaout that, biut the highly endangered smaller states in the Baltic and Eatsenr Europe tend to be more courageous and coinfornting Russia withouzt watsign time on that "concern". Its no concern, I think - its a foul excuse to not get engaged too seriously.

What woudkl be neede dnow is to use the current opprutnity to really make it a very bad autumn for Russia by sending massive armoured reinforcements to the Ukraine. Now, immediately. Keep the momentum pushing Russia and hurting Russia.

Much oif the Germna mateiral, most of the Ge,rman howitzuer are out of action currently, due to needed repairs due to too much wear and tear they are currently beyond the or are being transported to the Western border. Germany is ranking 16th place in weapon contributions, but Bubble Olaf still claims that Germany is the most significant wepaon distributor to the Ukraine.

He lies, and lies, and lies. Sicne all years I observe him now. Always. As mayor. As finance minister. As chancellor. Blasé to the max, and completely full of himself. He has nothing but praise for his "work". The type always makes me completely stunned.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Right now while the Ukrainians have big success on the battlefield, Bubble Olaf calls Putin after a long break and tells him to allow diplomatic solutions by withdrawing first. At the same time repeated and inceasingly urgent calls by Kyiv for Germna anks and IFVs get oince again catgeoriclaly uzrled out by him and his carrictaure of a defenc emionsutress who boast at the same time that Germany is willing to take a military lead role in Europe. Why the Ukrainian demands become increwainglky urgent? Because they run out of ammo and spare parts for Sovjet made weapons and platforms and so must increasingly turn to Western equipment to be able to continue to fight. Also, the yhave the momentum but can only continue to make use of it if they can move forces quickly with moving supporting firepower for such troops movements quickly as well: so,m they need APCs/IFVs, and tanks.

German Rheinmetall said they have 16 Marder IFVs finalised for immediate delivery, and now finish 14 more Marders, and could prepare 70 more Marder sin short time.

How tio make sens eof this timing? I fear bad things. I fear Bubble Olaf fears Russian anger nif the yget beaten too badly, and so he does not want Ukrainian victories, but a "diplomatic" solution- which of course only makes sense to be called that if the ukrainians accept to talk about letting Russia annex more of their land.Scholz weants a negiotiated "peace" like this to go back to business as usual with Russia na dhave deliveries of anything form Russia coming back to normal - and maybe also having Germany, this "big military lead power in Europe" (in his reality-disconnected bubble-thinking)havign a role as mediator and briliant diplomat again,l like Germany and France already traded the Crimea to Russia in negotiations with Ukriane in 2015 which was still too weak back then to reject this favour.

A very underhanded double play I fear is running here.

Washington has singleled very lcerly they have no objecttiosn whatever toi gerkan deliveries if armour to Ukraine - Bubble OlAaf's excuse all time long is that eh woukld act not alone and only in close cooridnaiton with "the allkiues". In fact he si hgiding behind a lie about Washington's claimed stand, and other (Western) European powers hide behind Germany. And in this way Bubble Olaf has secured his goal of that the Ukraine does not get heavy armour of Western types.

I put it clearly what I think: Scholz wants to break the ukrainian momentum, and he wants to prevent a clear Russian defeat. Maybe he also wants to rpevent th ekurian beocming a NAOT and EU emeber ever, becasue foi you look at iots size, its population, its military ability and its rhich ressources and relvqnce ans a bread basket of the world, it would be a heavy weight entering the EU union and would fundamentally shift he power balances inside the block - at the cost of Germany, and France.

Its intrestign to see that the further away Wetsenr Europenba n atiosn are for Russia, the mroe fear they idnoicate of nculear war, or pretend to be worrie dbaout that, biut the highly endangered smaller states in the Baltic and Eatsenr Europe tend to be more courageous and coinfornting Russia withouzt watsign time on that "concern". Its no concern, I think - its a foul excuse to not get engaged too seriously.

What woudkl be neede dnow is to use the current opprutnity to really make it a very bad autumn for Russia by sending massive armoured reinforcements to the Ukraine. Now, immediately. Keep the momentum pushing Russia and hurting Russia.

Much oif the Germna mateiral, most of the Ge,rman howitzuer are out of action currently, due to needed repairs due to too much wear and tear they are currently beyond the or are being transported to the Western border. Germany is ranking 16th place in weapon contributions, but Bubble Olaf still claims that Germany is the most significant wepaon distributor to the Ukraine.

He lies, and lies, and lies. Sicne all years I observe him now. Always. As mayor. As finance minister. As chancellor. Blasé to the max, and completely full of himself. He has nothing but praise for his "work". The type always makes me completely stunned.

Ahum https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/09/...-war/?swcfpc=1

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Ahum

Thanks to the global economy we have found components in Russian arms from many western nation, including parts from U.S. manufactures.

I think some of what we see in Germany is they can’t move past the sins of the father, past WWII. So much so, pacifism has become part of the German lifestyle especially in what was once the FRG, it seems many there take pride being afraid of that shadow. The bigger problem I think though is the aftershocks of reunification are still being felt, it’s been no cake walk even after 30 or so years, which in reality isn’t all that long ago. IMO Germany is still suffering from the impact reunification had on its economy which in turn affected their military readiness. Worse yet, reunification changed the whole German political landscape which I think is still quite evident today when even old guard Soviet ideology and friendships of the former GDR can influence German internal and foreign policy decisions. It’s not easy living with bipolar disorder

I’m not trying to make excuses I just think Germany still has a few things to iron out and it may take a couple or more generations to smooth things over.

[Rockstar]

Wow

[Rockstar]

So who do you think is next in line after Putler?

[Cybermat47]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

So who do you think is next in line after Putler?

I would hope that it’s someone competent enough to realise that continuing down the path of imperialism is suicidal for Russia.

So basically anyone with an IQ above room temperature.

[Jimbuna]

‘What is Berlin afraid of?’ Ukraine attacks Germany over lack of military aid

Angry Ukraine officials have accused Germany of ignoring Kyiv’s pleas for military hardware, including Leopard tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.

Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Berlin was offering “abstract fears and excuses” instead of weapons, as the row over military aid between the two countries erupted again.

His comments came after President Volodymyr Zelensky made a new appeal to the West to speed up deliveries of weapons systems as Ukrainian forces move to consolidate control over a large swathe of northeastern territory recaptured from Russia.

“Disappointing signals from Germany while Ukraine needs Leopards and Marders now to liberate people and save them from genocide,” Kuleba tweeted.

“Not a single rational argument on why these weapons cannot be supplied, only abstract fears and excuses. What is Berlin afraid of that Kyiv is not?,” he wrote, in unusually blunt language.

Germany has sent self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine but Zelensky and Kuleba say that is not enough. Kuleba has often criticised what he claims is Germany‘s slowness in sending weapons, suggesting it is reluctant to antagonise Russian President Vladimir Putin.

One of Zelensky’s advisers, Mykhailo Podolyak, also took a swipe at Germany.

“For six months the allies have been arguing over who will sell tanks to Ukraine. There are no tanks for six months because there is no ‘political solution’. Russia continues its terror, people die, time is wasted. Germany, we are waiting for your word,” he said on Twitter.

In talks with Kuleba in Berlin at the weekend, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock promised further military aid and did not rule out the delivery of Western-style main battle tanks, adding the “next few weeks and months will be crucial” for Ukraine.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...19b1947c294233

[Jimbuna]

Russians 'very embarrassed' as 'cracks in system' show Putin regime on brink of collapse

Former advisor to Ukraine Foreign Minister Cormac Smith revealed Russians are starting to feel "very embarrassed" after the latest updates appeared to confirm that Ukrainians have "taken over an area the size of Kent" in their counter-offensive campaign to regain control over Russian-occupied Kharkiv. Mr Smith said the decision of 18 Russian deputies to sign a petition asking for the resignation of Vladimir Putin is starting to show the presence of "cracks" within the Russian system and Putin's regime.

In light of the achievements made by the Ukrainian forces in the last few days, he urged the West to keep supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia and argued Ukraine is probably "at a D-Day point" with Russia.

Mr Smith told TalkTV host Julia Hartley-Brewer: "There is a lot of good news coming out of Ukraine at the moment, the Ukrainians have taken over an area the size of Kent.

"Eighteen deputies from lawmakers from Moscow and Saint Peterborough have now signed a petition asking for the resignation of Vladimir Putin and inviting others to do it.

"There are definitely signs that there are cracks in the system."

Referring to Ukraine's counter-offensive in Kherson, he continued: "The Ukrainians are definitely making huge progress at the moment, the eight to one advantage that they have, I think we must take it with a very large pinch of salt because it comes from a Russian proxy source."

He explained: "People I have spoken have suggested that Russians are actually very embarrassed.

"They are fleeing the battlefield in great numbers and they are leaving massive amounts of equipment tanks and ammunitions behind them.

"This is a great embarrassment for what was supposed to be the world's second greatest army.

"I spoke to a very good friend of mine the other day and he made the point that Ukraine is only doing as well as they are because of the massive amount of weapons that we in the West and the Brits in particular, along with the Americans, are giving them and age sanctions which are starting to bite in Russia.

"We must not blink as we're probably at a D-Day point.

"We're not there yet, but so much lies in the hands of the West".

An update from the UK's Ministry of Defence confirmed that Russian army has been left "severely weakened" after the Ukrainian retreat from Kharkiv Oblast.

In the defence intelligence update, the UK MoD also said that Russia "could take years to rebuild the capability" it has lost amid Ukraine counter offensive.

Another update from Ukraine's governor of Luhansk Serbia Haidai confirmed the achievements made by the Ukrainian forces.

On Telegram, he wrote that "the Russian have completely left Kreminna", a city located in the Luhansk Oblast region.

He said: "Today, Kreminna is completely empty - the Russian army has left the city. The Ukrainian flag raised by the partisans flies there".

In his nighty address to the nation, President Zelensky also declared that Ukraine has overall recaptured 2,300 sq miles of territory, urging the West to keep providing military support to Ukraine in its counter-attack campaign to regain control over the Russian-occupied Kharkiv region.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...a55088a29fe6e4

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

Thanks to the global economy we have found components in Russian arms from many western nation, including parts from U.S. manufactures.

I think some of what we see in Germany is they can’t move past the sins of the father, past WWII. So much so, pacifism has become part of the German lifestyle especially in what was once the FRG, it seems many there take pride being afraid of that shadow. The bigger problem I think though is the aftershocks of reunification are still being felt, it’s been no cake walk even after 30 or so years, which in reality isn’t all that long ago. IMO Germany is still suffering from the impact reunification had on its economy which in turn affected their military readiness. Worse yet, reunification changed the whole German political landscape which I think is still quite evident today when even old guard Soviet ideology and friendships of the former GDR can influence German internal and foreign policy decisions. It’s not easy living with bipolar disorder

I’m not trying to make excuses I just think Germany still has a few things to iron out and it may take a couple or more generations to smooth things over.

Correct direction aimed at. Just that in the Eastgerman states the Russophilia is even worse. The people of the GDR have not learned the lesson to stay away from their once-occupants, but to transfigure them. "Russenkitsch" und "Osthalgia" (noistalgia for the German Democratic Republic), spikes high.

The Germans will never recover from all this, and some more. We are a dying culture, the Germans will simply die out and get replaced with foreigners. In the coming 2 or 3 decades, until the middle of this century, the economic and financial currency/debt and demographic problems (employees-pensioneers ratio) will see a decline in Germany that keeps everybody so busy that he will have no time to relearn walking upright. A special explosion with Germany shifting into a very dark political era again is absolutely possible.

Germany's most likely future is spelled "irrelevance". And much of the EU will follow its fall. In the second half of this century nobody will care for the remains of the EU anymore. And the Euro by then will be a thing of the past already. The European enforced currency union is the gravedigger of it all. Our troubles with the Euro are so big that they can no longer be solved. They will bring us down.

[Jimbuna]

What are Vladimir Putin's options after Russian military setback in Ukraine?

LONDON (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet to publicly comment on a lightning rout of his forces in north-eastern Ukraine, but is under pressure from nationalists at home to regain the initiative.

He has few quick fix options, if Western intelligence and open source analysis is accurate, and most of the potential steps he could take come with domestic and geopolitical risks.

Since coming to power in 1999, Islamist militants in Chechnya and the wider North Caucasus region are among the toughest armed foes Putin has faced. In that instance, he chose to escalate with more force.

These are some of his main options in Ukraine:

STABILISE, REGROUP, ATTACK

Russian and Western military analysts agree that -- from Moscow's point of view -- Russian forces need to urgently stabilise the frontline, halt Ukraine's advance, regroup and, if they can, launch their own counter offensive. There are however doubts in the West about whether Russia has the ground forces or sufficient equipment, given how many casualties it has taken and how much hardware has been abandoned or destroyed during what Russia calls its "special military operation" to destroy the Ukrainian army.

"There is no manpower," Konrad Muzyka, director of Poland's Rochan Consulting, said after Russia's setback in the north-east.

"Volunteer battalions are under strength, and the recruitment campaign is not delivering what was expected. And I think it will only get worse as fewer men will now want to join. If Moscow wants to add men, it needs to conduct a mobilisation."

Russian efforts to increase the number of troops it can deploy include the formation of a new 3rd Army Corps, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov marshalling new forces, and Putin last month signing a decree to increase the size of Russia's armed forces.

Putin will need to decide whether to agree to demands from nationalist critics that he sack or reshuffle the military's top brass, including Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, a close ally. Putin has traditionally not given in to immediate pressure to fire subordinates, but has sometimes parted company with them at a later date.

MOBILISATION

Mobilising Russia's reserves, who number around 2 million men with military service within the past five years, is doable but it takes times to train and deploy people.

The Kremlin said on Tuesday there was no discussion of a nationwide mobilisation "at the moment."

Such a move would be popular with nationalists, but less so with some Russian men in urban centres who, anecdotal evidence suggests, are less keen on joining the fight.

It would mean recalibrating official messaging on Ukraine and moving away from describing it as "a special military operation" with limited goals to an open-ended war.

That in turn would force the authorities to abandon their policy of trying to ensure that the lives of most Russians go on as they did before Feb. 24 when Putin invaded Ukraine.

Putting Russia on a full wartime footing would come with domestic political risks too, notably the risk of a public backlash against a forced draft.

It would also constitute an admission that Russia is engaged in a full-scale war against a fellow Slav country - and that the war is going badly for Moscow.

Andrey Kortunov, head of RIAC, a think tank close to the Russian foreign ministry, has said he believes the authorities are reluctant on mobilisation.

"In big cities many people do not want to go and fight and mobilisation is not likely to be popular," said Kortunov.

These are some of his main options in Ukraine:

STABILISE, REGROUP, ATTACK

Russian and Western military analysts agree that -- from Moscow's point of view -- Russian forces need to urgently stabilise the frontline, halt Ukraine's advance, regroup and, if they can, launch their own counter offensive. There are however doubts in the West about whether Russia has the ground forces or sufficient equipment, given how many casualties it has taken and how much hardware has been abandoned or destroyed during what Russia calls its "special military operation" to destroy the Ukrainian army.

"There is no manpower," Konrad Muzyka, director of Poland's Rochan Consulting, said after Russia's setback in the north-east.

"Volunteer battalions are under strength, and the recruitment campaign is not delivering what was expected. And I think it will only get worse as fewer men will now want to join. If Moscow wants to add men, it needs to conduct a mobilisation."

Russian efforts to increase the number of troops it can deploy include the formation of a new 3rd Army Corps, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov marshalling new forces, and Putin last month signing a decree to increase the size of Russia's armed forces.

Putin will need to decide whether to agree to demands from nationalist critics that he sack or reshuffle the military's top brass, including Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, a close ally. Putin has traditionally not given in to immediate pressure to fire subordinates, but has sometimes parted company with them at a later date.

MOBILISATION

Mobilising Russia's reserves, who number around 2 million men with military service within the past five years, is doable but it takes times to train and deploy people.

The Kremlin said on Tuesday there was no discussion of a nationwide mobilisation "at the moment."

Such a move would be popular with nationalists, but less so with some Russian men in urban centres who, anecdotal evidence suggests, are less keen on joining the fight.

It would mean recalibrating official messaging on Ukraine and moving away from describing it as "a special military operation" with limited goals to an open-ended war.

That in turn would force the authorities to abandon their policy of trying to ensure that the lives of most Russians go on as they did before Feb. 24 when Putin invaded Ukraine.

Putting Russia on a full wartime footing would come with domestic political risks too, notably the risk of a public backlash against a forced draft.

It would also constitute an admission that Russia is engaged in a full-scale war against a fellow Slav country - and that the war is going badly for Moscow.

Andrey Kortunov, head of RIAC, a think tank close to the Russian foreign ministry, has said he believes the authorities are reluctant on mobilisation.

"In big cities many people do not want to go and fight and mobilisation is not likely to be popular," said Kortunov.

"Secondly I think it is arguably in Putin's interests to present the whole thing as a limited operation. The state would like to preserve as much as possible as it was before without making any radical changes."

Tony Brenton, a former British ambassador to Russia, has said it would take months before a mobilisation would have any effect on Russia's fighting strength in any case.

BET ON 'GENERAL WINTER'

Two Russian sources familiar with Kremlin thinking told Reuters last month that Putin is hoping that sky-rocketing energy prices and possible shortages this winter will persuade Europe to strong arm Ukraine into a truce -- on Russia's terms.

Some European diplomats believe that Ukraine's recent battlefield success has undermined the urge of some Europeans to push Kyiv to make concessions however, while countries like Germany appear to have grown tougher on Moscow in recent weeks and more determined to ride out winter energy problems.

The European Union has banned Russian coal and approved a partial ban on Russian crude oil imports. Russia in turn has sharply cut gas exports to Europe and made clear it could ban all energy exports, a lever Putin has yet to pull.

EXPAND MISSILE TARGETING

After its setback in north-east Ukraine, Russia struck Ukrainian power infrastructure with missiles. That caused temporary blackouts in the Kharkiv and adjacent Poltava and Sumy regions. Water supplies and mobile networks were also affected.

The move was cheered by some Russian nationalists who would like to see Moscow use cruise missiles to cripple Ukrainian infrastructure on a more permanent basis, a move certain to attract international condemnation.

The same nationalists have also long called for Moscow to strike what they call "decision-making" centres in Kyiv and elsewhere, something that it is unlikely could be achieved without significant collateral damage.

END OR DOWNGRADE GRAIN DEAL

Putin has complained that a U.N. and Turkey-brokered deal that allows Ukraine to export grain and other foodstuffs via the Black Sea is unfair to poorer countries and Russia.

Putin is due to holds talks this week with Turkish leader Tayyip Erdogan to discuss revising the deal, which provides Ukraine with much needed budget revenues. If Putin wants to immediately hurt Ukraine he could suspend or cancel the pact or refuse to renew it when it expires in November. The West and poorer countries in Africa and the Middle East would accuse him of worsening global food shortages; he would blame Ukraine.

PEACE DEAL

The Kremlin says it will dictate to Kyiv the terms of any peace deal when the time comes, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said he will use force to liberate his country.

Zelenskiy has said that includes Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. Moscow has repeatedly said that Crimea's status is settled forever.

Conceding captured territory in eastern Ukraine in the Russian-backed self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic or Luhansk People's Republic also looks politically impossible for Moscow as it has formally recognised them.

Fully "liberating" the two self-proclaimed statelets from Ukrainian forces was one of the main reasons given for the "special military operation" in the first place.

Handing back captured territory in southern Ukraine where Russia partially controls three regions looks like a hard domestic sell too.

The southern Kherson region is directly north of annexed Crimea and the location of a canal which supplies the Black Sea peninsula with most of its water.

Along with the neighbouring Zaporizhzhia region, Kherson also gives Russia a land corridor through which it can supply Crimea, something Moscow has touted as a major prize.

GO NUCLEAR

Russian government officials have dismissed Western suggestions that Moscow would use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, but it remains a worry for some in the West.

Apart from inflicting mass casualties, such a move could start a dangerous escalatory spiral and formally draw Western countries into a direct war with Russia.

Russia's nuclear doctrine allows for the use of nuclear weapons if they - or other types of weapons of mass destruction - are used against it, or if the Russian state faces an existential threat from conventional weapons.

Putin, in a quasi-autobiography in 2000, recalled cornering a rat in a corner with a stick when growing up in a dilapidated apartment building in then Leningrad and being surprised when the cornered animal threw itself at him and turned the tables.

Brenton, the former British ambassador to Russia, has warned that a cornered Putin could go nuclear if he faced a humiliating defeat with no face-saving off-ramp.

"If the choice for Russia is fighting a losing war, and losing badly and Putin falling, or some kind of nuclear demonstration, I wouldn't bet that they wouldn't go for the nuclear demonstration," said Brenton.

Retired U.S. general Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe, agrees it's a risk but has said he thinks it unlikely.

"There is no real battlefield advantage to be gained, it would be impossible for (the) U.S. to stay out/not respond, and I don't think Putin or his closest advisers are suicidal," said Hodges.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...aeccc7088cd620