Worry about China

[ASWnut101]

Exactly, August

A good book to buy is the "Clash of Civilzations"
by Proff. Samuel P. Huntington, the Eaton Professor of the Science of Government and Director of the John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard University

He predicted that Islam would be a threat to the west a decade before 9/11.
You read his book, he claims if the west don't wake up, they will fall to a conflict with Islam and China.
Deng Xaioping reportedly asserted in 1991, that a Cold War is under way between China and America.


What is shocking about this book, is that every thing Proff. Samuel P. Huntington has predicted so far, has been 100% accurate.

http://www.alamut.com/subj/economics/misc/clash.html

[ASWnut101]

Theres another.....

"Jerusalem Countdown" (John Hagee)
About all of the stuff in the middle east.
especially damming, though, is that this book was written well before all of the stuff in the Mid East, Published later, and EVERYTHING it predicted came true. One worry though, is that if all of this stuff in this book happened, he also predicts that Russia will come to the side of the Arabs during the "final days" of the mid east.

But remember that not all preditions come true.....

[TteFAboB]

The Chinese are finally leaving the dark ages, they will not allow their government to involve China in a world war and ruin what progress they've made so far. The day China goes to war the dictatorship falls. They can barely control the population at the coast and the press already.

[Ishmael]

I've been out of town the last few days retrieving some of my recently passed mother-in-law's things for my wife. Here's my take on the situation. The Chinese government is Socialist/communist in name only. Over the past 25 years, they have transformed themselves into a fascist/capitalist state. They have done this for many reasons, but one must look into Chinese history,especially that of the last 200 years. The Chinese have had to deal with foreign intervention into their country from the days of the opium wars up to 1978. The leadership has a very real phobia against instability and foreign influence into what they regard as their internal affairs. After the innumerable famines and instability since the decline of the emperors through the aftermath of the Cultural Revolution, they will always choose stability and control over anything as messy as democracy. Contrast Tien an Men against Yeltsin standing up to the tanks in front of the Russian parliament. The Chinese philosophy has always been,in the event of conflict, to send sons to fight on both sides so that whoever wins, the family survives. Combine that with China's classic xenophobia, after all the literal translation of the Cantonese word for foreigner, Gwailoh, is Foreign Devil.

So the Chinese learned the lessons of the Japanese in World War 2. That it is much harder to break up an economic empire than it is to break up a military one. They have realized that you don't have to conquer the world when you can just buy it. Also, the Chinese civilization is over 4000 years old and culturally unchanged. The Confucian ethics of Family, Learning, Ambition and Subtlety are still paramount today. Since their Mandate of Heaven is so old, they can think & plan in terms of hundreds of years. They see themselves as the emerging superpower and are determined to resume their rightful role as the Middle Kingdom. With the combined military and economic power of 1/5th of the human population, they have an economy of scale unmatched by any one nation or bloc of nations.

So I will list what I know to be true:

1. Since the death of Mao, increasing numbers of Chinese have populated the student bodies of the top Business and Technology schools in the US. I remember seeing busloads of Chinese tourists getting their pictures taken on the campuses of Cal Tech in Pasadena and USC Business schools.

2. When they have made deals with US corporations, it is almost always for technology transfers that are built in China. In many cases, these technologies are dual-use for civilian and military purposes.

3. As the Katrina Leung and Wen Ho Lee cases illustrated, Chinese intelligence has thoroughly penetrated US nuclear weapons labs and FBI counterintelligence efforts directed at them. The fact that neither case ever went to trial is indicative of the subtlety of their work and the depth of Chinese influence onto the US government of both political parties.

4. They are happily financing Bush's disastrous foreign policy adventures while using the US dollars hemorraghing from this country to upgrade their military technology, buy up key strategic industries and cut deals with foreign energy producers in a non-threatening manner to secure an ever-larger share of global energy production.

5.They have both propped up and used North Korea as a stalking horse to distract the US from their goal of reunification with Taiwan, peacefully if they can, by overwhelming force if necessary.

6.They have transferred military technology to countries that the US government sees as adverseries while professing to be a cooperative agent for stability with the US.

7.When they are ready to strike, they will dump all of their dollar holdings en masse, triggering an economic depression in the US that will dwarf the 1930's. At that time they will seize Taiwan by force while neutralizing the US Pacific fleet. With over a billion people, they are convinced that they can survive and prevail in a nuclear exchange with the US and have said so.

8. At the same time I see them moving into the Persian Gulf and Central Asia in force to secure the bulk of world oil supplies. To the people of those lands they will roll over them as quickly and ruthlessly as the Mongols did 1000 years ago with corresponding slaughter. At the same time they will move qiuckly to neutralize India who they see as their only serious rival in their New World Order.

Of course, that's just my opinion. I could be wrong.

[Immacolata]

Sounds like it is taken straight out of a Clancy novel. But some things you got right I think. Their economic ambition is sky high. And the buying of us debt will come back and bite the US in the butt. Hard.

Also try to imagine yourself sitting in the chinese government and watching USA fool around in Afghanistan and Iraq. Why they ask themselves as they are amused by the prospect of accumulating even more US debt. But why Iraq? It didn't make sense then and it makes especially no sense today. The US will wound itself on that affair, and China can later move in and buy the oil from the now really estranged Iraqi people. "Help" them rebuild their lands once the dust has settled.

[Skybird]

The Chinese do not see nuclear exchange as an acceptable option. If you understand under "exchange" the same as I do than you know that no state, no social structures, no national structures, no nothing will survive that and that survival only means some isolated individuals scattered across the land in microscopic communities until radiation brings them down one by one. Mutual nuclear exchange cannot be won, but all will suffer maximum loss.

They will try to secure their energy needs, and they will try to gain the upper hand on a strategical level, which means economy and money in the first. In this field America is extremely vulnerable, due to it's already monumental debts and deficits. "Leben auf Pump", we say in German. If the flow of investments into the US would be brought to a halt all of a sudden, it would be the death senetence for America, for it has lost the ability to supoport it'S economical and financial existence by it's own ressources, not to mention to maintain the luxury of such a huge military and ricidulously high defense budget. The world indirectly already pays massively into that budget, some bitter truth America does hate to be reminded of. All major powers in europe since 1500 sooner or later pumped more money into their empirial ambitions than economically they could afford, and like you can read so masterly illustrated in "The rise and fall of the great powers" by Paul Kennedy they all were brought to braking point over issues related to their unhealthy state fiannces, sprinting inflation and monumental state deficits.

I do not fear chinese armies storimng all over the globe, Chinese history always has been aimed to hold together what they considered to be their territory, but from all the major empires the world has ever seen, China probably has been one of the most defensive and less aggressive (beyond it's border) ones. Don't mix them up with the Mongoles - china and Mongolian Khans are two completely different things.

So, China will use military to project it'S influuence locally close to it's mainlands and neighbouring regions of vital interests (Chinese Sea, etc), but beyond nthat it is more likely they will focus on economical and financial strategies. Chinese are great and dominant traders - and trade is a force, as is known throughout Asia. Globally, I would be surprised to see China behaving like America (or the Romans): sending battleready combat formations around the globe and outside of what they claim to be their territory or sphere of interest. They will more try to do like the Portugese, Dutch, and eventually later maybe like the British (who kind of mixed the militarily controlled with the economically controlled empire, but control of trade, and thus: sea lanes, still was the major ingredient). All these were economcially controlled empires, not territory-controlling, military empires. The power to control the world does not lie in bombs and guns, but in controlling the banks and the global cash flow.

Or to cut it shorter: money makes the world go round. you can replace the word "money" with "oil", of course, and not loosing any truth in that.

[Perilscope]

Originally Posted by Skybird

...China probably has been one of the most defensive and less aggressive (beyond it's border) ones. Don't mix them up with the Mongoles - china and Mongolian Khans are two completely different things.

So accurate, clearly you know your stuff.

Originally Posted by Skybird

Or to cut it shorter: money makes the world go round. you can replace the word "money" with "oil", of course, and not loosing any truth in that.

Until there is "oil", afterward we need to replace that with whatever comes next.
And since ethanol is on the horizon, I suspect that USA, Canada and Russia will be on top for that, they have immense fields to grow the base products.

[nikimcbee]

Originally Posted by zeropoint

Capitalism is the world’s pacifier. Going to war with your trading partners is a sure way to trash your country’s economy. The more capitalist China becomes, the less of a threat they are. At the same time, they gain economic ground on the United States; And their military potential is a potent fulcrum of leverage.

Still, it’s a good thing that an ocean separates you people.

My thoughts exactly. I think that we're (US/China) hooked on each others economies (sp). It's the new opium, the US dollar. I hope that their desire to have dollars is stronger than there desire to have Taiwan. I am worried about our ability to beat them though if we have a fight. In a nutshell, it's the quality vs quantity debate. They are turning to technology AND large numbers.

[nikimcbee]

ahh, I found it. I heard this guy on the radio, talking about China's economic war against the US. Here's his website. http://www.softwar.net/

[Yahoshua]

Going to war with your trading partners is a sure way to trash your country’s economy.

Really depends on whether you win or not.

The United States would get a little more crowded if China won though.

[Perilscope]

Originally Posted by Yahoshua

The United States would get a little more crowded if China won though.

I am not so sure about that, well, if China and USA fights conventionally, yes, you are right. However, if they fight nuclear wise, I don't think so. Both side would be polluted to the core.

[Yahoshua]

Both side would be polluted to the core.

Correction: Obliterated.

[tycho102]

Originally Posted by TteFAboB

The Chinese are finally leaving the dark ages, they will not allow their government to involve China in a world war and ruin what progress they've made so far. The day China goes to war the dictatorship falls. They can barely control the population at the coast and the press already.

Bingo.

They have too much to lose. The Chinese are a truely innovative people, and they have been for several thousand years, regardless of Communism. It will come to this low-level stuff. Hell, it may even come to umbrellas with poison darts (actually, hollowed BB's, but I'm not nitpicking).

Will it come to open-warfare over Taiwan?

I don't think so. I honestly think there is under 10% probabilty for that. I obviously just made that number up on the spot, but to give some kind of precision to my opinion, I included it in this post.

North Korea will come to open-warfare before Taiwan. If it comes to War with the NK, then start sweating Taiwan.

As for the sats, I fear China selling the technology to Pakistan and Iran (and Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, NK, and Indonesia).

[The Noob]

Originally Posted by Yahoshua

Business is war.

Windows is War! Heyl Gates!