The energy thread

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Add last years blockade of the Suez channel, the echoes of it still are heared in european harbours, they said on TV this summer, Rotterdam, Hamburg...

Yes correct, but that is not only the blockade it is China dealing with zero covid policy, so factories have to close you need to add this and suspect traders are creating this to get higher price for their products they can slow transport by sailing slower.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

You will get electricity from other countries in Europe, that is how the electricity system works in Europe.

Which I have been thinking- We sell and buy all over Europe.

This is why I don't understand why we should run out electricity-Only thing I can come up with is that these powerplant who deliver electricity who use gas to do so.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Which I have been thinking- We sell and buy all over Europe.

This is why I don't understand why we should run out electricity-Only thing I can come up with is that these powerplant who deliver electricity who use gas to do so.

Markus

If you only have gas power plants, and you did not stock up enough gas or there is an extreme cold winter you get in trouble the Dutch have leased two extra LNG terminals and have coal power plants on running standby also it has gas contract to external countries I heard nothing of "we could get in trouble if...".

[mapuc]

I knew I had both heard it in the news and read about it in some article

I found it

Total blackout threatens Denmark
It is far from inconceivable that Europe could be hit by a total blackout this winter because there is not enough electricity. Denmark is no exception

The energy crisis is upon us.

There can no longer be any doubt about that. In western Russia, a natural gas plant is burning gigantic quantities of natural gas. Gas worth DKK 75 million is going up in smoke every day instead of being exported to Germany.

At the same time, natural gas is in short supply throughout Europe, and this is having a serious impact on consumers, who are currently paying historically high prices for gas and electricity. This is a problem - not least for Denmark, says expert Andreas Steno, an independent macroeconomist who follows developments closely.

- Just over 50% of Germany's natural gas comes from Russia. They use it to heat homes and generate electricity. If Europe does not get that natural gas, we will have a problem, because there is no substitute in the short term. Basically, we have a huge problem if Russia doesn't open up to natural gas again, because we can't build new sources of electricity that quickly," he tells Ekstra Bladet.

Blackout in Germany and Denmark?
Putin has invaded Ukraine at a time when Germany has already begun to shut down several nuclear power plants, making itself more dependent on importing natural gas from Russia.

Although the country's natural gas reserves do not look alarming, the lack of natural gas flow could become a major problem this winter, the expert estimates.

- It is not at all unlikely that we will see shorter outages on the electricity grid in Europe this winter. The power is simply going. If the gas has run out, you might have to switch off the electricity, says Andreas Steno.

- So you're talking about days of outright blackout. Does that also apply in Denmark?

- If the Germans have to switch off the power, we'll have to hope that the wind blows that day in Denmark, is the clear answer.

The whole of Europe in crisis
However, other countries appear to be facing much greater challenges.

- Italy and France look the worst. Italy is insanely dependent on natural gas to generate electricity, almost 70% of their electricity comes from natural gas, while France is having alarming problems getting their nuclear capacity back up and running after a summer of maintenance schedules and drought.

In Denmark, it is estimated that about 15% of electricity production ultimately comes from natural gas.

Silence in Denmark
However, this does not mean that the lack of natural gas will not be a problem for Denmark, the expert believes.

- We have some notion that we are not dependent on natural gas. The problem is that some days we are dependent on importing electricity from Germany, so if Germany is in trouble, Denmark is in trouble too.

So why is there not a greater political focus on this here in Denmark, do you think?

- In all other countries, it has already been communicated that people should reduce energy consumption and the authorities have provided clear plans for rationing energy if necessary. I don't know if it's because the election campaign is on and nobody dares to say it, but here at home I still need to hear some politicians taking this issue seriously.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I knew I had both heard it in the news and read about it in some article

I found it



Markus

The European gas storage, you can see here https://agsi.gie.eu/#/ Europe total is above 80% and trend is upwards do not see why this article must be so doom we are on track even ahead with our storage for this winter even higher than decade ago.

[Skybird]

You will get electricity from other countries in Europe, that is how the electricity system works in Europe.

Its not that simple. Not only do you loose huge quantity in power by sending it down the wires over hundreds of kilometers, you also - and that is the real concern- you add instability to it due to the net frequency becoming instabile and currencies needing to be transformed, which has physical limits per amount of technical measuremnts installed to handle it. If you push too much power down the line, you get blackouts, and in worst case: a cascade blackout. Thats then the so-called "big one", it eats itself through most of the continental powergrid - through every section of it that does not get isolated and taken off the grid in time.


Europe has been close to that repeatedly in past years, and every following year more often then in the previous year. The epicenter of many causes for such flucationd and almost-deastsers has become Germany, the symptoms for it then become visible in other places and countries, and there in regional blackouts.

Its pretty likely that we will see regional blackouts in Germany this winter, and repeately. Its openly discussed over here to also intentionally switch off power in regions of Germany over the day, for some - announced - hours, to prevcent uncontrolled balckpouts. Planned blckouts are better than unpredicted, chaotic blackouts spiralling out of control. If the latte rhappens, it could lead to a cascade blacking out most of the continent. Not because ther eis not enough power, but because technical installations in the grid go up in flames.

The times when the redundancy in the German powergrid were so world-leadingly good that the rest of the planet envied the Germans for their stable and "undestructable" powergrid, are over.


Murphy's law: what can happen, will happen - you only have to give it time enough to get there.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Its not that simple. Not only do you loose huge quantity in power by sending it down the wires over hundreds of kilometers, you also - and that is the real concern- you add instability to it due to the net frequency becoming instabile and currencies needing to be transformed, which has physical limits per amount of technical measuremnts installed to handle it. If you push too much power down the line, you get blackouts, and in worst case: a cascade blackout. Thats then the so-called "big one", it eats itself through most of the continental powergrid - through every section of it that does not get isolated and taken off the grid in time.


Europe has been close to that repeatedly in past years, and every following year more often then in the previous year. The epicenter of many causes for such flucationd and almost-deastsers has become Germany, the symptoms for it then become visible in other places and countries, and there in regional blackouts.

Its pretty likely that we will see regional blackouts in Germany this winter, and repeately. Its openly discussed over here to also intentionally switch off power in regions of Germany over the day, for some - announced - hours, to prevcent uncontrolled balckpouts. Planned blckouts are better than unpredicted, chaotic blackouts spiralling out of control. If the latte rhappens, it could lead to a cascade blacking out most of the continent. Not because ther eis not enough power, but because technical installations in the grid go up in flames.

The times when the redundancy in the German powergrid were so world-leadingly good that the rest of the planet envied the Germans for their stable and "undestructable" powergrid, are over.


Murphy's law: what can happen, will happen - you only have to give it time enough to get there.

Denmark is connected by several countries it does not depend only on Germany so other country's takeover the UCTE grid is the largest synchronous electrical grid (by connected power) in the world.

[Skybird]

I was not talking about only Denmark. But Denmark is integrated part of the European grid. What effects the grid, effects Denmark.

A cascade ripples through all that, through all that when the cascade reaches it, is still connected to the grid. People simply underestimate this, also the speed by which this can happen. Its not about Volts, its not about Watts, its about Hertz'. Its about the grid frequency. Smallest deviations can lead to desaster if not kept under tightest control. The interval for fluctuation tolerance is extremely thin.

In the past close-to-desaster situations of the past one and a half decade, the location of causal event the the location of a resultig n subsequent blackout were nations and many hundreds and thousands of kilometers apart.

In the past years, the number of such critical alarm situation has risen from year to year.

This all is the top number one reason why I have become a "prepper". Not war, not pandemics, not floodings, but several days-lasting blackouts and the resulting civil unrest, collapse of state services and law and order, and shortage in sweet water for weeks to come. I can only recommend everybody living here to follow my example. Its not eccentric at all. The generation of my grandparents and before were pretty much used to it for kost if not all of their lives, whether there was war or not. If it happens, the state, police, emergency services will not be able to help you, you will be on your own, alone with the law of the jungle and the fall of society back into the medieval. "Readiness is all". Get ready to the best of your financial and space/room possibilities. You7 gut to understand that the cosnequences of a contiental cascade failure in the powergrid cnanot be rerpaired and cured within a few days, but will affect your life for weeks and months to come, especially relating to water and sewage. A few days without power and the sewage as well as the sweet wate rprocessing systems are ruined and must be completely cleaned, desinfected, every pipe, and water processing plants must be almost rebuild from scratch.

A regional blackout for 2, 3 days, that is one thing. A continental cascade failure taking out several nations - that is a completely different ballgame, and its played in the premium league of deasasters.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Denmark is connected by several countries it does not depend only on Germany so other country's takeover the UCTE grid is the largest synchronous electrical grid (by connected power) in the world.

That's true we are connected to Norway, Sweden, Holland and UK.

Right now as I write this we are importing 1.219 MW from Sweden while we are exporting 685 MW (which mean we are importing 534 MW)

From Germany where we use to import most is on 278 MW (don't know why it's so low)

From Holland Import 389 MW

Norway Export 731 MW

Edit
Been on the lookout for a generator.
End edit

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

That's true we are connected to Norway, Sweden, Holland and UK.

Right now as I write this we are importing 1.219 MW from Sweden while we are exporting 685 MW (which mean we are importing 534 MW)

From Germany where we use to import most is on 278 MW (don't know why it's so low)

From Holland Import 389 MW

Norway Export 731 MW

Edit
Been on the lookout for a generator.
End edit

Markus

The last major blackout was because the frequency in the North-West Area of Continental Europe initially decreased to a value of 49.74 Hz within a period of around 15 seconds automatic and manual countermeasures were activated in order to stabilize the frequency after a few minutes by France and Italy and Transmission System Operators the reason can be the strong expansion of volatile renewable electricity generation and the elimination of large backup power plants in Europe.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

The last major blackout was because the frequency in the North-West Area of Continental Europe initially decreased to a value of 49.74 Hz within a period of around 15 seconds automatic and manual countermeasures were activated in order to stabilize the frequency after a few minutes by France and Italy and Transmission System Operators the reason can be the strong expansion of volatile renewable electricity generation and the elimination of large backup power plants in Europe.

Thank you Dargo-You mentioned something very important-The frequency-which as to be as close to 50 Hz as possible.

If people use more power than there's electricity the frequency will drop and the country has to buy or produce more electricity and if it goes up..then either sell og shut down some turbine.

Skybird posted a very interesting video about German power grid some weeks ago. Sad thing is It's German.

Markus

[mapuc]

Just heard in the news

(from memory)
We have filled up on our reserve and it will reach to next spring..if the winter doesn't become very cold-Then the reserve could end up being empty sooner than expected.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Just heard in the news

(from memory)
We have filled up on our reserve and it will reach to next spring..if the winter doesn't become very cold-Then the reserve could end up being empty sooner than expected.

Markus

Denmark has 94.43% that is higher than the EU average

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Denmark has 94.43% that is higher than the EU average

I presume you are talking about our gas reserves. You may be correct I only know it's above 80 %.

As said before it all depend on how the winter are going to be-Ordinary then we have enough-A hard winter not enough..I don't know if our wind turbine can fill up the needs if this is the case or other renewable energies ?

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Europe total is above 80% and trend is upwards do not see why this article must be so doom

Because different nations have very different storage capacities.For exmaple the UK has a max gas storage capacity of 1.5bn m3. Germany: 23 bn m3. So although the UK is a huge gas consumer, it has a probolem even with all reserves filled up if it is not constantly supplied from outside the UK.


A continental average of 80% means nothing.