The energy thread

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Here in Denmark we have been told that we could run out of electricity and that some areas of Denmark would be cut off from the electricity grid due to lack of electricity. In the coming winter that lay ahead of us.

Markus

You will get electricity from other countries in Europe, that is how the electricity system works in Europe.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

You will get electricity from other countries in Europe, that is how the electricity system works in Europe.

Which I have been thinking- We sell and buy all over Europe.

This is why I don't understand why we should run out electricity-Only thing I can come up with is that these powerplant who deliver electricity who use gas to do so.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Which I have been thinking- We sell and buy all over Europe.

This is why I don't understand why we should run out electricity-Only thing I can come up with is that these powerplant who deliver electricity who use gas to do so.

Markus

If you only have gas power plants, and you did not stock up enough gas or there is an extreme cold winter you get in trouble the Dutch have leased two extra LNG terminals and have coal power plants on running standby also it has gas contract to external countries I heard nothing of "we could get in trouble if...".

[mapuc]

I knew I had both heard it in the news and read about it in some article

I found it

Total blackout threatens Denmark
It is far from inconceivable that Europe could be hit by a total blackout this winter because there is not enough electricity. Denmark is no exception

The energy crisis is upon us.

There can no longer be any doubt about that. In western Russia, a natural gas plant is burning gigantic quantities of natural gas. Gas worth DKK 75 million is going up in smoke every day instead of being exported to Germany.

At the same time, natural gas is in short supply throughout Europe, and this is having a serious impact on consumers, who are currently paying historically high prices for gas and electricity. This is a problem - not least for Denmark, says expert Andreas Steno, an independent macroeconomist who follows developments closely.

- Just over 50% of Germany's natural gas comes from Russia. They use it to heat homes and generate electricity. If Europe does not get that natural gas, we will have a problem, because there is no substitute in the short term. Basically, we have a huge problem if Russia doesn't open up to natural gas again, because we can't build new sources of electricity that quickly," he tells Ekstra Bladet.

Blackout in Germany and Denmark?
Putin has invaded Ukraine at a time when Germany has already begun to shut down several nuclear power plants, making itself more dependent on importing natural gas from Russia.

Although the country's natural gas reserves do not look alarming, the lack of natural gas flow could become a major problem this winter, the expert estimates.

- It is not at all unlikely that we will see shorter outages on the electricity grid in Europe this winter. The power is simply going. If the gas has run out, you might have to switch off the electricity, says Andreas Steno.

- So you're talking about days of outright blackout. Does that also apply in Denmark?

- If the Germans have to switch off the power, we'll have to hope that the wind blows that day in Denmark, is the clear answer.

The whole of Europe in crisis
However, other countries appear to be facing much greater challenges.

- Italy and France look the worst. Italy is insanely dependent on natural gas to generate electricity, almost 70% of their electricity comes from natural gas, while France is having alarming problems getting their nuclear capacity back up and running after a summer of maintenance schedules and drought.

In Denmark, it is estimated that about 15% of electricity production ultimately comes from natural gas.

Silence in Denmark
However, this does not mean that the lack of natural gas will not be a problem for Denmark, the expert believes.

- We have some notion that we are not dependent on natural gas. The problem is that some days we are dependent on importing electricity from Germany, so if Germany is in trouble, Denmark is in trouble too.

So why is there not a greater political focus on this here in Denmark, do you think?

- In all other countries, it has already been communicated that people should reduce energy consumption and the authorities have provided clear plans for rationing energy if necessary. I don't know if it's because the election campaign is on and nobody dares to say it, but here at home I still need to hear some politicians taking this issue seriously.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I knew I had both heard it in the news and read about it in some article

I found it



Markus

The European gas storage, you can see here https://agsi.gie.eu/#/ Europe total is above 80% and trend is upwards do not see why this article must be so doom we are on track even ahead with our storage for this winter even higher than decade ago.

[Skybird]

You will get electricity from other countries in Europe, that is how the electricity system works in Europe.

Its not that simple. Not only do you loose huge quantity in power by sending it down the wires over hundreds of kilometers, you also - and that is the real concern- you add instability to it due to the net frequency becoming instabile and currencies needing to be transformed, which has physical limits per amount of technical measuremnts installed to handle it. If you push too much power down the line, you get blackouts, and in worst case: a cascade blackout. Thats then the so-called "big one", it eats itself through most of the continental powergrid - through every section of it that does not get isolated and taken off the grid in time.


Europe has been close to that repeatedly in past years, and every following year more often then in the previous year. The epicenter of many causes for such flucationd and almost-deastsers has become Germany, the symptoms for it then become visible in other places and countries, and there in regional blackouts.

Its pretty likely that we will see regional blackouts in Germany this winter, and repeately. Its openly discussed over here to also intentionally switch off power in regions of Germany over the day, for some - announced - hours, to prevcent uncontrolled balckpouts. Planned blckouts are better than unpredicted, chaotic blackouts spiralling out of control. If the latte rhappens, it could lead to a cascade blacking out most of the continent. Not because ther eis not enough power, but because technical installations in the grid go up in flames.

The times when the redundancy in the German powergrid were so world-leadingly good that the rest of the planet envied the Germans for their stable and "undestructable" powergrid, are over.


Murphy's law: what can happen, will happen - you only have to give it time enough to get there.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Its not that simple. Not only do you loose huge quantity in power by sending it down the wires over hundreds of kilometers, you also - and that is the real concern- you add instability to it due to the net frequency becoming instabile and currencies needing to be transformed, which has physical limits per amount of technical measuremnts installed to handle it. If you push too much power down the line, you get blackouts, and in worst case: a cascade blackout. Thats then the so-called "big one", it eats itself through most of the continental powergrid - through every section of it that does not get isolated and taken off the grid in time.


Europe has been close to that repeatedly in past years, and every following year more often then in the previous year. The epicenter of many causes for such flucationd and almost-deastsers has become Germany, the symptoms for it then become visible in other places and countries, and there in regional blackouts.

Its pretty likely that we will see regional blackouts in Germany this winter, and repeately. Its openly discussed over here to also intentionally switch off power in regions of Germany over the day, for some - announced - hours, to prevcent uncontrolled balckpouts. Planned blckouts are better than unpredicted, chaotic blackouts spiralling out of control. If the latte rhappens, it could lead to a cascade blacking out most of the continent. Not because ther eis not enough power, but because technical installations in the grid go up in flames.

The times when the redundancy in the German powergrid were so world-leadingly good that the rest of the planet envied the Germans for their stable and "undestructable" powergrid, are over.


Murphy's law: what can happen, will happen - you only have to give it time enough to get there.

Denmark is connected by several countries it does not depend only on Germany so other country's takeover the UCTE grid is the largest synchronous electrical grid (by connected power) in the world.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Europe total is above 80% and trend is upwards do not see why this article must be so doom

Because different nations have very different storage capacities.For exmaple the UK has a max gas storage capacity of 1.5bn m3. Germany: 23 bn m3. So although the UK is a huge gas consumer, it has a probolem even with all reserves filled up if it is not constantly supplied from outside the UK.


A continental average of 80% means nothing.

[Skybird]

DW (Deutsch):


Study: USA to become EU's most important LNG supplier

Companies and private households are groaning under high gas prices. It is not yet clear who will replace Russia as the largest gas producer in the long term. A new study looks to the future.

The most important source of supply for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Germany and Europe will probably be the USA in the future. This is the result of a study by the Energy Economics Institute at the University of Cologne (EWI) on behalf of the industry association Zukunft Gas.

According to the study, natural gas from Russia will no longer be available in the near future, or only with restrictions, which is why the currently high gas prices are not expected to reach the 2018 level again until 2030 - but only if demand is significantly reduced.

In the study "Developments in global gas markets up to 2030," the authors describe how they see the realignment of gas supplies following Russia's attack on Ukraine and the resulting supply freezes up to the end of the decade.

Challenges due to focus on the USA

Imported natural gas from Russia still had a market share of around 55 percent in Germany in 2021. It was transported by pipeline. Meanwhile, the U.S. has the greatest potential for deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG) via tanker.

However, the strong focus on the U.S. poses new challenges: "Looking to the immediate future, Germany is called upon not to lose sight of the desired diversification of supply sources," demands Timm Kehler, CEO of Zukunft Gas, according to a press release. "Only in this way can the European gas supply become sustainable and secure. The realignment requires a long-term strategy that strengthens diversified LNG procurement."

In addition, the U.S. also expects long-term signals, Kehler said. "Only when our U.S. trading partners have a clear picture of future offtake prospects will they make the necessary investments to expand liquefaction capacity."

LNG demand to increase significantly

European demand for LNG will increase significantly, the study says. In the event that gas trade from Russia were to come to a permanent halt, the three remaining pipeline facilities from Norway, Azerbaijan and Algeria to the EU would be heavily utilized.

An increase in supply volumes from these countries would therefore only be possible to a limited extent. According to current estimates, Norway could still increase its production until 2028, after which production would decline. Imports from the North African exporting countries are expected to decrease because domestic demand there will increase in the course of the expected economic growth.

In all scenarios examined, U.S. imports increase significantly compared to 2021. If no gas is traded between Russia and the EU, they will reach a share of total EU imports of around 40 percent, according to the study. This would make the EU one of the most important sales markets for natural gas from the U.S. alongside Asia.

In contrast, the growth of volumes coming from Qatar would be limited. Additional imports from Australia or Canada would also probably not be significant for the European market, as these exporters will primarily serve the Asian market. However, the additional volumes could help prevent shortages on world markets. Lower demand would also have a price-dampening effect. This could be achieved, for example, through electrification, efficiency gains and the production of biomethane as a natural gas substitute.

Looking at the current price situation, Timm Kehler expects the situation to ease as early as 2024: "The rapid expansion of LNG terminals in Europe will eliminate import bottlenecks and align European and Asian prices."

[Jimbuna]

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer had told the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg the UK needs to double onshore wind, triple solar and quadruple offshore wind to achieve the party's ambition of generating 100% renewable electricity.

He admitted there will be a transition from fossil fuels - and may still be there for a fall back come 2030.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-63025549

[Jimbuna]

Germany secures natural gas deal with the UAE as Berlin rushes to replace Russian supply before winter

Germany signed a natural gas deal with the United Arab Emirates on Sunday, as the European country scrambles to find alternatives to cut-off Russian energy imports before winter kicks in.

Under the deal, German utility giant RWE will get liquefied natural gas from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. delivered to its new floating gas terminal near Hamburg. The shipment of 137,000 cubic meters of LNG is expected to arrive by the end of December, RWE said.

Germany has been racing to secure energy imports from nations other than Russia as Moscow slashes its gas flows to the region in response to Western sanctions over the Ukraine war. The cutbacks in supply have sent European natural gas prices soaring more than 300% this year and have forced Germany to turn to alternative and cheaper sources of fuel, like coal.

"We need to make sure that the production of LNG in the world is advanced to the point where the high demand that exists can be met without having to resort to the production capacity that exists in Russia," German chancellor Olaf Scholz said on his weekend visit to the UAE, per Reuters.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/mark...age=AA12ftNj|9

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

The shipment of 137,000 cubic meters of LNG is expected to arrive by the end of December, RWE said.

Just to put that into relation - that delivery in December equals around 3% of what was pumped through Nordstream 1 per day.



The sAudis are friendly people. They did not have the hard heart to let Bubble Olaf leave with completely empty hands.

[Jimbuna]

Yeah, I was wondering what the comparison was but didn't think it would be that far off the mark.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Skybird

[...]
The Saudis are friendly people.

Umm, no. At least not their glorious leader.

They did not have the hard heart to let Bubble Olaf leave with completely empty hands.

This again is a good idea and it made me laugh for a short time, but my take is they placed a perfect "deal" of humiliation after Germany dared to criticize Kashoggi's killing; it is their way to make others feel inferior.
If those others are not too dumb to understand what was done to them.

[Skybird]

Note to myself: i need to intensify my skills in expressing verbal irony.