How long does Putin have left in office?

[Platapus]

The Russians need to elect Mikhail Prokhorov as president. The Russians need a President they can look up to.

[ikalugin]

Only after USA elects Trump :P

[Mr Quatro]

This is just speculation, but President Putin may have been radicalized.

Not by the Muslims, but by the Russian orthodox church ... Here's a very good article recent too: http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=5e7_1449487676

To restore Russia as a major power in the world. Putin also plans to revive the monarchy with himself as emperor and Tsar. His first step on becoming tsar was to revive the political power of the christian orthodox church.

I don't have a link, but several years ago I was like in a dentist office or something and picked up a copy of the New Yorker and was shocked to read that the Kremlin has a chapel just down from the President Putins office and that he has been seen going into it many times.

All of this points to a serious problem. What if President Putin thinks that he is Gods right hand man to solve the worlds population problems?

[August]

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

What if President Putin thinks that he is Gods right hand man to solve the worlds population problems?

You'd feel better if he decided to solve that problem for secular reasons?

[Onkel Neal]

Originally Posted by August

You'd feel better if he decided to solve that problem for secular reasons?

You're funny.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

Interestingly enough you do not mention any credible, non marginal politicians. Liberals by 2000 (ie after 90s) and certainly by 2014 were not in that category. Unless you count in the battle with old guard oligarhs in the early years of the regime (which I have specifically cut out due to how those oligarhs have operated in the 90s) all you describe are journalists/activists being murdered (sadly this is reality - there is a degree of corruption going around and sometimes journalists die and that happens without Putin's intervention).

Interesting claim. Define "dangerous". Were the journalists that you have described dangerous to Putin (or his regime) rather than some people well below him in the order of things?

It depends on what they were sniffing at, truth be told it might well not be Putin but those who run him that have ordered their silence.
The west is certainly not completely innocent of such matters, I recall an interesting case in the UK involving an unfortunate gentleman by the name of Dr David Kelly who committed suicide in 2003, likewise the curious incident of Gareth Williams, although that could have been a foreign intel agency who pulled that one off.
Honestly I respect Putin and his rather masterfully created image, and I can also respect him for bringing the oligarchs to heal after their attempts to run the country, although to be fair to them, considering that Yeltsin was President at that time, they were probably doing more work than he was. Putin cut through the corruption and brought Russia back as a power to be respected and feared on the world stage, I can respect that and I can see how to the average Russian that would make him a popular figure.

But there's other things that un-nerve me about Putins Russia, the laws regarding Homosexuality, for one thing, the corruption in the police force that is so often ignored or even encouraged in some areas by local officials, the way that freedom of speech can sometimes lead to a bad end...although, to be fair in that respect a similar thing can happen in the west, especially if you're the wrong ethnicity or religion.
It's those little things, that probably don't even effect the average Russian citizen in their daily lives, and as such would not cause them any real concern or reason to doubt Putins directions, but when you step back and look at the bigger picture, it's not a direction I like seeing Russia take.
I realise that Russia is not the west, and it takes a very particular type of government to run Russia in any organised form, in that respect I can understand Putin running for so long, he is doing no different to what his predecessors did, all the way back to the Tsars and beyond, but to try and call it a democracy is a bit like calling a wolf wearing sheeps fur a sheep. The Chinese communist government is probably more democratic in that manner, but I guess if Putin was to crown himself Tsar it would probably end with another mess in St. Petersburg and I'm really not so sure if the cannons on the Aurora still work...

[Dmitry Markov]

Well, since Aurora is being refit at Cronstadt probably they'll look after her cannons as well. Last time I've seen her - they were in quite a good shape - glistening as your mirror. Of course these aren't the ones that were equipped in 1917 - those original ones were lost being taken ashore to serve as ground batteries during Defence of Leningrad.
As for mess in St.Petersburg - if it will be only there I woudn't care - they call us in Moscow a big village ;-)

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

...
Interesting claim. Define "dangerous". Were the journalists that you have described dangerous to Putin (or his regime) rather than some people well below him in the order of things?

One word: yes. Journalists and the media are much more dangerous for any dictator, statesman or president, than a mere rival. You can discredit a rival or competitor before killing (like spreading word he's a homosexual, a pedophile, or a traitor), so no one will shed a tear, maybe even with the media's help; but media gone wild against you as a leader is a multi-headed beast and not that easy to kill.

From Anna Politovskaya to Pussy riot, anyone who openly or hidden, seriously or making fun dared to criticize, has been forbidden or is dead. Maybe it's not even Putin himself everytime, but you know this obedience hurrying ahead with all those subordinate thugs thinking their boss expects it is a very common occurrence, especially with "one-man-governments" (to put it more pleasantly). Whether it was (or is) chekists, FSE or KGB, or the russian Mafia – who cares.

We have also seen this with South America and the US secret services involved, of course. Usually those presidents who were not on the right side (in all possible contexts) had inexplainable plane accidents, back then. It was not always as obvious as with Allende.


The russian political climate in which all this takes place ... the once-promising reluctant start of a civilian society in Russia, has come to a grinding halt. And yes, we can also blame the West for that. NATO-eastward expansion, violating treaties, the same western attitude towards Russia since 1989 like during the cold war.. all not very nice.

[Bilge_Rat]

Originally Posted by Catfish

And yes, we can also blame the West for that. NATO-eastward expansion, violating treaties, the same western attitude towards Russia since 1989 like during the cold war.. all not very nice.

well, its easy to blame the West for whatever Russia does, but it's the former East Bloc/Baltic States themselves that campaigned to join NATO and the EU. Considering what Russia is doing now in Ukraine, I'm sure the Baltic states are very glad to be NATO members.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat

well, its easy to blame the West for whatever Russia does, but it's the former East Bloc/Baltic States themselves that campaigned to join NATO and the EU. Considering what Russia is doing now in Ukraine, I'm sure the Baltic states are very glad to be NATO members.

Yeah right, and NATO hesitated and cared so much about how Russia would think about all surrounding states joining the NATO.
What Russia is doing in the Ukraine (not that the West did anything there? lmao) is a direct consequence. It would have never happened with someone like Gorbatschow or Yeltsin at the helm, who asked for becoming a NATO member back then, but were brusquely refused.

Regarding the former eastern block i could maybe understand Finnland, but when i see what happens in Poland politically, and how nationalistic the new government is, i am more frightened of them, than of Russia.

[U505995]

You see comrades, in motherland president votes himself in for the people.

[ikalugin]

All of this points to a serious problem. What if President Putin thinks that he is Gods right hand man to solve the worlds population problems?

As we say - the voice of the people is the voice of the God. Hence, in a way, as far as he retains his popularity he may feel like he has more or less a total mandate to do what he thinks is right for the country and it's people.

The whole orthodoxy angle is a blowback of sorts after the Soviet era - the collapse of Communism has left an ideological vacuum that had to be filled. That was done by the religion (surprise).
Not that I do not think that the Church needs improvement (after all nothing on earth is perfect and that tax evasion and customer rights abuses should be looked into), but at the same time I do not think that it should be demonised as the people who would go for a theocracy or monarchy. If anything they would rather not have monarchy, as under the Tsars Church was a state department run by the Tsar apointed person.

As to the journalists and activists - they have no real power (an overstatement, but still). Hence actions by them could not really dammage Putin's halo/popularity rating.
Now, lower level officials (ie local leadership in Chechnya) can be affected by those things, so they do have to worry.

As to pussy riot, that thing was overblown, while the important actions to discipline the Church were not covered. And if anything that covers under the perceived right not to be offended, something westerners dealing with SJW should know all too well.

[Bilge_Rat]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Yeah right, and NATO hesitated and cared so much about how Russia would think about all surrounding states joining the NATO.

and do you think that if NATO had stopped at the German border, that all would be quiet? Putin has made no secret that he wants to expand Russian influence back to the border of the former USSR. IMHO, without NATO, you would have the same type of "hybrid war" in the Baltic states.

What Russia is doing in the Ukraine (not that the West did anything there? lmao) is a direct consequence.

Ukraine has been a part of Russia for centuries, a majority speak Russian, a large minority are ethnic Russians, up until last year, Russia was their main trading partner. So why is it that a majority of Ukrainians want to join NATO and the EU? IMHO it has a lot more to do with Russian actions and intentions than anything the West may have done.

Regarding the former eastern block i could maybe understand Finnland, but when i see what happens in Poland politically, and how nationalistic the new government is, i am more frightened of them, than of Russia.

Poland does not invade its neighbours.

[ikalugin]

Ukraine has been a part of Russia for centuries, a majority speak Russian, a large minority are ethnic Russians, up until last year, Russia was their main trading partner. So why is it that a majority of Ukrainians want to join NATO and the EU? IMHO it has a lot more to do with Russian actions and intentions than anything the West may have done.

Because they were lied to.

and do you think that if NATO had stopped at the German border, that all would be quiet? Putin has made no secret that he wants to expand Russian influence back to the border of the former USSR. IMHO, without NATO, you would have the same type of "hybrid war" in the Baltic states.

The reason for the influence expansion was to create a buffer against agressive and expansive NATO. Should there have been a common security framework, there would be no need for expansion.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat

and do you think that if NATO had stopped at the German border, that all would be quiet?

Yes. Do you really think Russia would have invaded Poland by now, had Poland not joined NATO? Really??

Putin has made no secret that he wants to expand Russian influence back to the border of the former USSR. IMHO, without NATO, you would have the same type of "hybrid war" in the Baltic states.

Why do i always have to repeat that: Putin was NOT head of the state when Poland joined the NATO. Yeltsin was, he had asked for a kind of joint venture, but it was denied. Gorbatchev or Yeltsin would not have done such things at all as Putin does, now.
After 1989 it became clear, that Russia had been afraid of the NATO all he time, and of the cowboy-like behaviour of US presidents like Nixon, and Reagan.

Ukraine has been a part of Russia for centuries, a majority speak Russian, a large minority are ethnic Russians, up until last year, Russia was their main trading partner.

Umm, yes. So it not too far-minded to see it belongs more to Russia, than to its western neighbours. If they WANT to join the west, ok. Does the majority want it? Really? Or is it western media hype?
B.t.w. did you know Ukraine did not exist as a country, before the german Wehrmacht and High command decided to make it so?

So why is it that a majority of Ukrainians want to join NATO and the EU?

They do not all want that.

IMHO it has a lot more to do with Russian actions and intentions than anything the West may have done.

Russian action certainly adds, to the equation.

Poland does not invade its neighbours.

With those Kaczyński brothers, as with the new elected government ..(?)..hmm. Ok after all i guess you are right