How long does Putin have left in office?

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

...
Interesting claim. Define "dangerous". Were the journalists that you have described dangerous to Putin (or his regime) rather than some people well below him in the order of things?

One word: yes. Journalists and the media are much more dangerous for any dictator, statesman or president, than a mere rival. You can discredit a rival or competitor before killing (like spreading word he's a homosexual, a pedophile, or a traitor), so no one will shed a tear, maybe even with the media's help; but media gone wild against you as a leader is a multi-headed beast and not that easy to kill.

From Anna Politovskaya to Pussy riot, anyone who openly or hidden, seriously or making fun dared to criticize, has been forbidden or is dead. Maybe it's not even Putin himself everytime, but you know this obedience hurrying ahead with all those subordinate thugs thinking their boss expects it is a very common occurrence, especially with "one-man-governments" (to put it more pleasantly). Whether it was (or is) chekists, FSE or KGB, or the russian Mafia – who cares.

We have also seen this with South America and the US secret services involved, of course. Usually those presidents who were not on the right side (in all possible contexts) had inexplainable plane accidents, back then. It was not always as obvious as with Allende.


The russian political climate in which all this takes place ... the once-promising reluctant start of a civilian society in Russia, has come to a grinding halt. And yes, we can also blame the West for that. NATO-eastward expansion, violating treaties, the same western attitude towards Russia since 1989 like during the cold war.. all not very nice.

[Bilge_Rat]

Originally Posted by Catfish

And yes, we can also blame the West for that. NATO-eastward expansion, violating treaties, the same western attitude towards Russia since 1989 like during the cold war.. all not very nice.

well, its easy to blame the West for whatever Russia does, but it's the former East Bloc/Baltic States themselves that campaigned to join NATO and the EU. Considering what Russia is doing now in Ukraine, I'm sure the Baltic states are very glad to be NATO members.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat

well, its easy to blame the West for whatever Russia does, but it's the former East Bloc/Baltic States themselves that campaigned to join NATO and the EU. Considering what Russia is doing now in Ukraine, I'm sure the Baltic states are very glad to be NATO members.

Yeah right, and NATO hesitated and cared so much about how Russia would think about all surrounding states joining the NATO.
What Russia is doing in the Ukraine (not that the West did anything there? lmao) is a direct consequence. It would have never happened with someone like Gorbatschow or Yeltsin at the helm, who asked for becoming a NATO member back then, but were brusquely refused.

Regarding the former eastern block i could maybe understand Finnland, but when i see what happens in Poland politically, and how nationalistic the new government is, i am more frightened of them, than of Russia.

[Bilge_Rat]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Yeah right, and NATO hesitated and cared so much about how Russia would think about all surrounding states joining the NATO.

and do you think that if NATO had stopped at the German border, that all would be quiet? Putin has made no secret that he wants to expand Russian influence back to the border of the former USSR. IMHO, without NATO, you would have the same type of "hybrid war" in the Baltic states.

What Russia is doing in the Ukraine (not that the West did anything there? lmao) is a direct consequence.

Ukraine has been a part of Russia for centuries, a majority speak Russian, a large minority are ethnic Russians, up until last year, Russia was their main trading partner. So why is it that a majority of Ukrainians want to join NATO and the EU? IMHO it has a lot more to do with Russian actions and intentions than anything the West may have done.

Regarding the former eastern block i could maybe understand Finnland, but when i see what happens in Poland politically, and how nationalistic the new government is, i am more frightened of them, than of Russia.

Poland does not invade its neighbours.

[ikalugin]

Ukraine has been a part of Russia for centuries, a majority speak Russian, a large minority are ethnic Russians, up until last year, Russia was their main trading partner. So why is it that a majority of Ukrainians want to join NATO and the EU? IMHO it has a lot more to do with Russian actions and intentions than anything the West may have done.

Because they were lied to.

and do you think that if NATO had stopped at the German border, that all would be quiet? Putin has made no secret that he wants to expand Russian influence back to the border of the former USSR. IMHO, without NATO, you would have the same type of "hybrid war" in the Baltic states.

The reason for the influence expansion was to create a buffer against agressive and expansive NATO. Should there have been a common security framework, there would be no need for expansion.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat

and do you think that if NATO had stopped at the German border, that all would be quiet?

Yes. Do you really think Russia would have invaded Poland by now, had Poland not joined NATO? Really??

Putin has made no secret that he wants to expand Russian influence back to the border of the former USSR. IMHO, without NATO, you would have the same type of "hybrid war" in the Baltic states.

Why do i always have to repeat that: Putin was NOT head of the state when Poland joined the NATO. Yeltsin was, he had asked for a kind of joint venture, but it was denied. Gorbatchev or Yeltsin would not have done such things at all as Putin does, now.
After 1989 it became clear, that Russia had been afraid of the NATO all he time, and of the cowboy-like behaviour of US presidents like Nixon, and Reagan.

Ukraine has been a part of Russia for centuries, a majority speak Russian, a large minority are ethnic Russians, up until last year, Russia was their main trading partner.

Umm, yes. So it not too far-minded to see it belongs more to Russia, than to its western neighbours. If they WANT to join the west, ok. Does the majority want it? Really? Or is it western media hype?
B.t.w. did you know Ukraine did not exist as a country, before the german Wehrmacht and High command decided to make it so?

So why is it that a majority of Ukrainians want to join NATO and the EU?

They do not all want that.

IMHO it has a lot more to do with Russian actions and intentions than anything the West may have done.

Russian action certainly adds, to the equation.

Poland does not invade its neighbours.

With those Kaczyński brothers, as with the new elected government ..(?)..hmm. Ok after all i guess you are right

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Catfish

B.t.w. did you know Ukraine did not exist as a country, before the german Wehrmacht and High command decided to make it so?

Not quite, Ukraine had existed before then. It officially declared independence from Russia on the 25th January 1918, as the Ukrainian People's Republic.

[ikalugin]

Not quite, Ukraine had existed before then. It officially declared independence from Russia on the 25th January 1918, as the Ukrainian People's Republic.

I guess you treat all other "states" created by the breakdown of the Russian Empire and the Civil War the same way? How about Far Eastern Republic?

Now, I understand Polish claim for their statehood (which is real), but making Ukrainian People's Republic into something more than what it was is a bad idea I think. As next we would be talking about how Ukrainian Cossacks invented submarines by glueing their boats together or about how proto-Ukrainians dug out the Black Sea.

[Bilge_Rat]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Yes. Do you really think Russia would have invaded Poland by now, had Poland not joined NATO? Really??

I did not say that, but there is no reason to think the Russia would be acting differently in Ukraine if NATO had not expanded eastward.

Umm, yes. So it not too far-minded to see it belongs more to Russia,than to its western neighbours. If they WANT to join the west, ok. Does the majority want it? Really? Or is it western media hype?

there are many polls floating around to gauge public opinion, i.e.:

Among Ukrainians living outside Donbas and Crimea, majorities support receiving economic aid from Western countries (71%), joining the EU (67%) and increasing sanctions on Russia (65%). More than half also want to receive military assistance (54%) and join NATO (53%), though support for these measures is more tepid and regionally divided. Ukrainians in the west are much more supportive than those in the east of becoming a member of NATO (68% in west vs. 34% in east) and receiving military aid (66% support in west vs. 38% in east). Neither western nor eastern Ukrainians, however, want to join the Eurasian Economic Union with Russia (82% and 61% oppose, respectively).

http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/06/10/...-military-aid/

Ukraine does not "belong" to Russia any more than Poland, Finland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Belarus, Moldavia, Kazkahstan, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikastan, etc., all of which used to be part of Russia or the USSR at one time.

History moves on.

[ikalugin]

I did already mentioned that Ukrainians were lied to? Essentially they were promissed (by the "pro russian" elites, "pro russian" my ass) that by joining EU and NATO they would receive western european standards of living from the get go.

Same thing happned back in the 1991, when they were promissed that by separating from the USSR and RSFSR they would become the eastern France or southern Canada.
And as we know even Belarussia did better economically:

In fact, due to the decrease in population post 1991, Ukrainian GDP (not per capita) did not recover from the break up of the USSR:
http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/o...07/page_02.htm
Reaching smashing 74 percent of 1990s levels just before the crisis hit.

As to if anything belongs to anyone - this could be argued about any state, I have provided the examples above. In my opinion it was a Soviet mistake to increase rights of the regions and regional elites, the same mistake Russia did after the break up.