What would happen if the Falkland war II broke out?

[SUBMAN1]

Originally Posted by Takeda Shingen

x2. When put to it, British resolve is no trivial thing. In that regard, Oberon is correct: If the British decide that they want to keep the Falklands, then they are going to keep the Falklands.

I don't think they have this resolve anymore.

-S

[clive bradbury]

Originally Posted by SUBMAN1

I don't think they have this resolve anymore.

-S

Which was precisely the misjudgement the Argentines made the first time around...

[antikristuseke]

Originally Posted by SUBMAN1

I don't think they have this resolve anymore.

-S

I belive you to be mistaken as were the Argentinians first time round.

[Mush Martin]

The People of the Falklands wont accept argentine governance ever.

The argentines know this now. there is no prestige gain or profit in the
this media age in forcibly subjugating and incarcerating an unwilling people.
they would have to literally occupy by force under the eyes of the world.
not gaining any prestige and although it might distract internal dissent on
invasion day it would only provide more ammunition to the dissenter's in
every subsequent hour.

They were clearly made fun of after the last war in
"An Ungentlemanly act" for not having even the barest
clue what they were going to find, they expected suppressed
spaniards and discovered they were oppressing hostile anglos
and occupying there farms.

there is no real resource gain in Argentinian occupation, and the strategic
location that Britain and the RN hold dear about the islands is a
strategic location that argentina is already located in.

The only real purpose of an occupation ( or just threatening one )
is to divert attention away from massively failed internal policy, staving
off the non confidence of the people for another month.

admittedly there is prestige to be gained in facing down the UK
victoriously but that wont happen Neal is right, and I am in agreement
with Tom Clancy on the weight we should give to a perisher graduate
on the battlefield.

finally the whole thing can be stopped cold by bringing the
falklands into the main of the UK instead of as a colony basically
making it a direct Province, then there is no question of Resolve
as invading the UK is generally a bad Idea, several people better
at it than the argentine's have tried.

jmo

M

[Biggles]

Originally Posted by SUBMAN1

I don't think they have this resolve anymore.

-S

Why not? If their land gets invaded, they should fight back, if they have the means.

[Jimbuna]

If anyone is to learn anything from history, let it be never to underestimate the resolve of the British when faced with adversity.

Whilst fully recognising how downsized our military has become in recent decades, don't forget how Maggie used the Argentinian invasion to turn the tide of negative opinion towards her and her government into a positive one.

I reckon Gordon Brown would see any similar opportunity as a political Godsend should the need arise before the next election.

The standing force on the islands are much better prepared this time round and might just hold out long enough for relief to arrive.

I think the major chink in our armour is the feeble air assets on the island.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No._1435_Flight_RAF

[Letum]

4 Typhoons seam an adequate match to the ~10 A4 Skyhawks former
Argentinian Defense Minister Horacio Jaunarena claims Argentinia can field.

Besides, no aircraft at all where present in '82.

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by Skybird

...the argentininians had four submarines, two WWII-era boats, and two German modern Type-209...

Actually they had two, one of the old GUPPY boats was decomissioned at that time and the second Type 209 was in dry dock.


Today the TO&Es of the two sides would be quite diffrent. The ARA lacks a CV and CL however most of their DDs (which are equivlent to most navies FFs) are more modern then in '82. While the RN has heliborne AEW capablity that they did not have in '82 also they have E-3 Sentry aircraft that they lacked which could be based at Acention and be refueled by VC10/Tristars or by loaned USAF tankers aircraft. AEW was probaly the RN major failing in '82.

The RN's subs are now armed with highly capable torpedoes, not to mention SLCMs (both Anti-Ship and Land Attack). So this time around the UK could hit Argentina's mainland.

The ARA's three subs would be a problem but in that case I figure that an area denial stratigy would work best. Keep the RN surface ships far out at sea and force them to enter deeper water to attack where they are more detectable when snorkeling while RN SSN isolate the Falklands from supply kinda like the Allies did in the Pacific durring WWII. No point in holding the islands if you can't keep the troops there fed and equipped.

[FIREWALL]

I smell a Hostage Situation comeing.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Letum

4 Typhoons seam an adequate match to the ~10 A4 Skyhawks former
Argentinian Defense Minister Horacio Jaunarena claims Argentinia can field.

Besides, no aircraft at all where present in '82.

That's true.....it simply looks dangerously threadbare/minimalistic to me though.

[TigerShark808]

Well South/Central America has been a very dormant place as far as conflict and major rebellion goes. Its only a matter of time before the whole place breakes out . Im surprised in this day and age of " ANTI COLONIALISM" this part of the world has not broken out already/ years ago.

Many look @ the middle east and Asia as the only hot spots to worry about while central and south America is simmering in the back round.

And having many friends and family from this part of the world I know whats on there minds. Its not all rose colored glasses. And not every servant is pleased to receive min wage and lucky enough to pick fruit for America. <---FACT!

[Hakahura]

Argentina take and hold the Falklands?
Not a chance.
Outcome would be the same as last time.
Possibly even worse for Argentina. After all if they couldn't take the hint after round one, wouldn't the UK forces have to inflict higher casualties in round two to ensure the message is read and understood?

Very biased "what if" video on the you tube link, might as well ask what if the UK govt had ordered a Polaris strike on Buenos Aires.

Hopefully this is all just foolish speculation and the current Argentinean govt has more sense than its predecessor.

[jumpy]

I guess we'd have at least one submarine lurking about down there, surely?

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by jumpy

I guess we'd have at least one submarine lurking about down there, surely?

I should imagine that if there weren't already one down there, at the first inkling of trouble at least a couple would be quickly despatched.

[Kapitan]

I think you would be very wrong to assume britian couldnt defend the falklands again, just because i doesnt have the numbers of 1982 doesnt mean its not capible, dont forget in 1982 we only had invincible and hermes as carriers, today we have three carriers all be it one is mothballed.

We have the more capible type 23 frigates 13 in total as well as 4 remaining batch 3 type 22's, with 7 trafalgars 1 swiftsure and 1 astute boat gives us a fair pounce that will keep the argentine navy in port we did it last time as the argentinians openly states "we cannot counter a nuclear submarine" little has changed.

We have 4 type 42 destroyers and there are another 4 lurking around some where, we also now have three large platform docks HMS Ocean Bulwark and albion giving us better capacity in terms of we would be able to transport more units to the front in time of war, we can now launch attack helicopters from HMS Ocean the AH64D longbow apache giving better air support to ground troops, and its good to note ocean can also take chinooks too.

you then have the RFA which has 4 large landing ships bay class which can drop a fair amount of troops and equipment making our landing force to 7 large ships, this is without the other mothballed roundtable class that are still kicking about.

A good thing with the UK is in time of war they can requisition merchant vessels the QE2 and canberra sailed last time could you immagine the QM2 this time?

Whats more the UK would send down tornado's and tankers and awacs to the assencion islands to fly missions into the falklands so it will have a good role in attack and defence and would quickly gain air superiority or supremacy.

Remember in 1982 24 sea harriers took on the 200 strong argie air force not one was lost in air to air warfare.

Since 1982 the UK has stationed 2 troops for every one person on the island so theres around 3000 troops on the falklands that are permanantly there, whats more they also have an active naval presence with the flaklands gaurd ships they never leave the post and also HMS Endurance still looks after the falklands too.

in 1982 the americans offered us an aircraft carrier do believe it was the kitty hawk we turned it down we didnt need it we still probably wouldnt, give it another 10 years we will have type 45's and the new carriers therefore even now i dont think argentina would invade, whats more they havnt got the funding to either.