Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Catfish

It is not about Putin, or blaming the US! Please, take your time and listen, it is all very clear.
Pozner's speech is only 45 minutes, rest is discussion.

OT
I have seen the entire video-I can only say this

He likes Putin very much -That is what I get out of watching his speech, his answers to the question being asked.
End OT

Markus

[les green01]

you boys ain't got this mess clean up yet Far has trusting US well consider there a lot of US boys planted over there from Two World wars that was started over there i say the track record not too hot far has i'm concern US and Britian should tell the rest of the world to go blank theirselfs

[Rockstar]

“Democracy begins with elections,” Mr. Gorbachev said. “Elections, accountability and turnover.” Mr. Gorbachev feels that he put Russia on the path toward being a functional democracy, only to have Mr. Putin block its progress. “Russia has a long way to go to usher in a new system of values, to create and provide for the proper functioning of the institutions and mechanisms of democracy — the institutions of civil society.”

[Skybird]

Die Welt writes:

No one in the West knows what Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to do with the soldiers and weapons he is moving toward the West. Moscow denies that it is planning an invasion of Ukraine.

Thanks to spy satellites and other reconnaissance methods, however, the intelligence services have a very good overview of the current situation. And this looks grim - especially when combined with the analyses that have been produced on Putin himself. An overview:


The deployment

Intelligence agencies from the U.S. and other NATO countries estimate that between 112,000 to 120,000 Russian troops are now stationed in areas not far from Ukraine. The troops have been joined by heavy weapons, tanks and, most recently, landing ships and medical service units with blood reserves, according to conversations with Western intelligence officials.

More Russian soldiers are expected to join a military maneuver starting soon in Belarus, north of Ukraine. They will be accompanied by a transfer of S-400 air defense systems and Sukhoi Su-35 fighter aircraft.

There are no indications of an end to the deployment, a senior Western intelligence official said. Specifically, he said, it is considered likely that the number of tactical battalion groups (BTGs), currently estimated at about 60, could be increased to more than 100 by mid-February. BTGs are fast and highly flexible combat units with 600 to 1000 soldiers.

The BTGs could be supported in the event of a Russian attack by the estimated 35,000 or so armed forces of pro-Kremlin separatists in the Donbass. They are not included in the more than 100,000 Russian troops.

The military options

If the buildup continues as feared, military experts believe Russia could be in a position to launch a full-scale invasion followed by occupation in as little as two weeks. However, it is also considered possible that only half of the country will be taken, or that only a corridor will be created from the already annexed Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea toward Moldova and Romania.

Other options include an official move into the Donbass, already controlled by the separatists, where Russian soldiers would then see themselves as a kind of peacekeeping force - possibly even after an expansion of the separatist areas. A possible attack on Ukraine's capital, Kiev, could be carried out via Belarus, but also via northeastern Ukraine, according to analysts.

Whether Putin chooses one of these options - and if so, which one - is likely to depend on the willingness to take risks, on the one hand, and on the actual goal he wants to achieve, on the other, according to the analysts. Any attack is likely to be accompanied by extensive cyberattacks on the energy supply system, state command and control offices, and the telecommunications system, TV and radio stations. "The goal would be to quickly isolate the country and cause a lot of chaos and anxiety among as many people as possible," explains an intelligence official.

The possible motivations

Why might Putin risk attacking Ukraine? From the perspective of Western services, it's quite clear. "He wants Ukraine back," is the analysis. From Putin's point of view, Russians and Ukrainians are one people, Ukraine does not exist at all, and neither does an independent Ukrainian people. For this reason, Putin advocates the return of Ukraine to Russia or at least to its sphere of influence.

The glimmer of hope is that, precisely because of this way of thinking, Putin is probably not interested in destroying the country too much in the event of an attack. One likely option is therefore for Russia to launch an offensive lasting only a few days or weeks and then come to the negotiating table. There it could present the other negotiators with a choice: Either there is a surrender, or the offensive continues. It is possible that Putin's main goal is to remove pro-Western Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The Kremlin leader seems to be personally quite fixated on Selenskyj, it is said.

The pretext for a limited military operation in eastern Ukraine, according to the services, could be Putin's claim that he needs to protect the Russian minority from an impending "genocide" by "insane Ukrainian fascists." Putin's narrative would then be: he had no other choice.

Russia's regular protestations that it has no plans to attack are not taken seriously by the intelligence services - especially since Putin himself threatened shortly before Christmas: "In case of continuation of the rather aggressive line of our Western colleagues, we will respond with adequate military-technical measures."

The weather and the Olympics

Some experts recently expressed their conviction that the suitable window of opportunity for a large-scale Russian attack is likely to close for the time being at the end of February. After that, as the snow melts, the ground softens and tanks and other heavy vehicles would have a very difficult time making headway. Other experts, however, warn against thinking that way. They point out that Russian forces have large quantities of modern guided missiles and could parachute large numbers of troops to their destination. "They would find a way to deal with the melting snow," they say.

On the other hand, it is considered possible that the Beijing Winter Olympics, which begin next Friday, could play a role in upcoming decisions. The reasoning: An attack during that time is likely to damage Putin's image even more, turning Chinese President Xi Jinping against him in addition to the entire West.

Russia has backed a U.N. resolution that an Olympic truce would be in place during the Beijing Olympics (Feb. 4-20) and Paralympics (March 4-13). "Under the Olympic truce, all sides are called upon to cease hostilities throughout the duration of the Games," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said recently.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[mapuc]

It can go three ways and in none of them will there be war between Russia and NATO.

1. Russia occupy entire Ukraine and they start in the beginning of next week.
2. Russia occupy half of Ukraine and they start.....next week
3. Putin understand he will not win anything by start a war on Ukraine so once again he withdraw his troops.

If number 1 or 2 happens the only thing we will see coming from NATO, EU and UN is strong words.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

There is a "real threat" of Russia invading Ukraine, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has warned, but it is "very unlikely" British soldiers would be deployed to fight in any conflict.

Instead, she said the UK was sending weapons to Ukraine and "strengthening" its sanction system so oligarchs close to the Kremlin had "nowhere to hide".

She said the UK was also offering extra support to nearby Nato allies.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60188690

[Skybird]

Due to weather and olympic games considerations, the currently most likely attack timetable probably sees it starting in the last third of February - after the Olympics, and before the ice and snow melts.

Although I think muddy ground will not really stop the Russians, if they mean serious play. They are strong in air mobile infantry: seizing strongholds that guard a path left and right inside which the slowed down armour then advances, geometrically comparable to like the Germans did in France 1940 with ground forces exclusively. I would expect any Russian attack to be conducted in a highly mobile manner. At least they would try that.

Advancing not with armour but airmobile infantry and parachuters may also pull some of the teeth of those Western ATGM deliveries.


Donbass region and Kiev would be the main objectives, I think. Maybe establishing a land conneciton to Moldavia as well, which then would probably put Mariupol at risk, too.



If Putin decides for war, that is. Civil society in Russia seems not to be enthusiastic about that scenario.

[mapuc]

^ Once again I have to admit you may be correct on your statement. I forgot that Russia shall have this exercise with Belarus in February-I doubt Russia will attack Ukraine before this exercise.

I think this exercise is a cover-up for an attack on Ukraine from Belarus-Here Belarusian and Russian troops will join forces.

Secondly
Who says he wouldn't start the war during the Olympics ?
Russia has voted for truce during the games-Well Putin has also said Russia will not attack Ukraine.

Markus

[Rockstar]

I gotta ask when was the first or last time Putin ever said invading the Donbas or Ukraine was on his list of things to do? Frankly I think for whatever reason the rhetoric of invasion is being ginned up by us so we have an excuse to invade.

Anyway the only thing I ever heard Putin say when he came into power was he wanted Russia to be a world leader again, to restore Russia to having some level of say in regional and world politics. To borrow a phrase he wanted to make Russia great again. But NATO SecGen has stated quite clearly that is not going to happen, PERIOD.

Putin can paint himself and Russia a victim all he wants. But the U.S. didn’t place anyone under some kind of spell or put a gun to the heads NATO members or these former Soviet Block countries to join NATO. They are all to aware what it would be like if Russia was in charge of that region again. They don’t want any part of that and who could blame them?

[Skybird]

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes:

The "military exercise" of Russia and Belarus, originally announced only for February or March, is already in full swing. In its first phase, a five-digit number of Russian military personnel have arrived in Belarus in the past two weeks. If the official account is correct and this is indeed just an exercise, it would be the largest military maneuver in Russia's recent history, along with the other operations around Ukraine. All five of the country's regional commands are now involved in the deployment. Particularly unusual is the deployment of units from the Far East over distances of up to 9,000 kilometers.

It seems implausible that such an unprecedented large-scale maneuver should have been decided on short notice and that those responsible should then have brought forward the start by several weeks. The plan for it probably matured much earlier. It could just as well be a scenario for a military action against Ukraine or for the occupation of Belarus.

What is especially suspicious is that the official information about the planned exercises does not match the real operations. A map distributed by the Belarusian Ministry of Defense lists five exercise sites and four air bases. They are all located in western or central areas of Belarus. However, conspicuous troop concentrations are also underway in the southeast of the country, 200 kilometers from the nearest official exercise site. This region is of strategic importance, as it lies directly on the border with Ukraine and could serve as a deployment area for a rapid advance toward Kiev. The Ukrainian capital can be reached by the shortest route from the border in less than 140 kilometers.

This does not yet mean that the Kremlin has decided to invade, but it is a clear threatening gesture. An analysis by the NZZ of more than fifty videos posted by Belarusian private citizens and other posts on social networks proves that the concealed troop deployment in the southeast is militarily significant. It includes units of the 35th and 36th Armies, which are normally stationed on the border with Mongolia and China, respectively. Soldiers from some of these units were already deployed during Russia's military intervention in eastern Ukraine after 2014.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

The paper further describes many videos and photos by the civil population that ciriculate in social media and that show that the Russian have gathered even forces from the Far East in tactically relevant positions in Belarus and at the Ukrainian border from which they can blitz into Kiev, as I suspected, and that are hundreds of kilometers away from the declared military manouvers areas.

https://www.nzz.ch/international/irr...ine-ld.1667245

Other photos from the last days show that the Russian field the latest of their weapon and platform technology, and in numbers.

No, I fear they are not there just to play.

[Rockstar]

For now, the only thing Putin can do to prevent Ukraine’s incorporation into the E.U./NATO is to preserve an already ongoing low intensity war in the Donbass. Though the threat of invasion is real, he doesn’t have too and I don’t think he will. He just needs to keep The Ukraine a corrupt unstable crap hole that nobody in NATO wants to touch with a ten foot barge pole until he can find a way to install a friendly government.

[Skybird]

Thats how I tick like, too. But my conclusions are different.



He probably will either recognise Donbass as a sovereign brother state and support it with Russian troop presence, which techcially is an invasion of curren Ukrainian territory, and/or he will blitz Kiev, to install a puppet regime. He will need to act as fast as possible onec the military movement on the ground and the border crossing has started, to get his wanted regime as fast as possible - to avoid the Ukrainian society forming up guerilla-style resistence, and to not getting bogged down in endless urban battles. For this, a temporary military seizing of territories as fast as possible might be necessary, from a Russian point of view.

As I said two days ago, look up a map: the "manouver" forces in Belarus will move south, bypass Kiev in its West, and block the Westenr Ukrainian territory, they can prevent Western interference - unlikely - coming from the West, also can then turn east and attack Kiev from the West. The forces located in forward positions right now where the borders of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia all come together like the centre of a Mercedes star, must just move south for a few hours, then they are in Kiev. The forces at the Donbass region already embrace the area in form of a crescent, guess what they can do - they can attack from North, East, almost South, and from within (separatists).



Putin also has an interests to make quick business to reduce the risk that unrest at home will raise threats from Russian civil society. He will try to strike super fast if the Russian forces can do that, he will strike hard, and stay focussed on his strategic objectives.



If he goes "all in", we may also see a Russian drive along the Southern coast, beyond Mariupol, but towards Moldavia, to establish a land corridor not just to the Crimean, but to Moldavia, and to cut off the Ukraine from access to the sea. A signfiicant capability of the Black sea fleet for amphibious operations and sending in marine infantry via amphibious assault, raises the chances in Russian favour.


If anything of this happens, it will be just another 100% wipe-out blow to german foreign diplomacy and German Russophilia. And Bubble-Scholz' empty face will become even emptier.

[Skybird]

"Look how reasonable and helpful and friendly the Russians can be!"

Russia takes invitation for easy PR scoring. The fishermen in Ireland may celebrate. But the real winner is Russia.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/31/e...ntl/index.html

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

"Look how reasonable and helpful and friendly the Russians can be!"

Russia takes invitation for easy PR scoring. The fishermen in Ireland may celebrate. But the real winner is Russia.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/31/e...ntl/index.html

[Jimbuna]