Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

US President Joe Biden has warned there is a "distinct possibility" Russia might invade Ukraine next month, the White House says.

Russia meanwhile says it sees "little ground for optimism" in resolving the crisis after the US rejected Russia's main demands.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60164537

[Catfish]

^ Invasion at february 20ieth as far as i heard

This is a long video, but every minute worth it. Maybe not the first 5 or so.



I take it only Wolfovitz and his ilk will even understand what happened and how the US did that, with NATO expanding eastward.

Putin 2007: "I think it is obvious that NATO expansion does not have any relation with the modernization of the Alliance itself or with ensuring security in Europe"

Putin's Munich speech, 2007. It is all there.

"We are seeing a great and greater disdain for the basic principles of international law. And independent legal norms are coming increasingly closer to one state's legal system [the US's – GOD HELP US!] [...] the US have overstepped its national borders in every way."
Which you have to see in the overall context of this speech. Denmark, Sweden, Germany, all else: the US cannot be trusted. No warning for England, they do what they are told by the US all the way.
Maybe the rest of Europe can and should indeed get a bit of distance from the US, and "NATO". This treaty is worth nothing apart from supporting the US in every possible way. We saw Trump, we should go.

[mapuc]

Russian and Belarusian shall have a joint military exercise near the Belarusian Ukrainian border. This exercise is to be held between 10th and 20th of February
At same time the Russian navy are planning a major sea exercise with 140 warship.

Markus

[Catfish]

^ Maybe your post was not intended as an "answer" to my post above, but please listen to Pozner's speech; Belarus and Yeltsin's Russia disbanded in 1990, effectively putting the CCCP and Gorbatchev to rest.
That they do what they do now, again, after the disbanding back then, cannot exactly be blamed on Russia. There is no trust in the US or "West" anymore. Even if Lukashenko is an idiot.

Putin said that "Our mistake is that we trusted you too much. And your mistake was to take advantage of that.". This is over. Russia will not allow any more country neighbouring Russia to join NATO.

[Skybird]

^


Not having listend to all of it in full length, its quite long, but what there was, aims at a direction of argument that I could understand, and mostly share. Confirms what I try to get across: to understand and preict Russia, it is not so relevant what we think the Russians should want - relevant is what thing slook like iof watching them through their eyes. Thats something that Western media and politics have been too arrogant on the past 20 years. We had "won" the cold war, hadn'T we, we are the triumphant victors, right? We were so full of orusleves that we even declared th eend of history (Fukujama), and by that mad eourselve back then the ending poujnt and climax of historic evolution.



The dope shone out of us so brightly that we got blinded by staring into our own shine.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Maybe your post was not intended as an "answer" to my post above, but please listen to Pozner's speech; Belarus and Yeltsin's Russia disbanded in 1990, effectively putting the CCCP and Gorbatchev to rest.
That they do what they do now, again, after the disbanding back then, cannot exactly be blamed on Russia. There is no trust in the US or "West" anymore. Even if Lukashenko is an idiot.
Putin said that "our problem is that we trusted you too much". This is over. Russia will not allow any more country neighbouring Russia to join NATO.

Yes it was this " Invasion at february 20ieth as far as i heard" that made me post my answer to you.
I don't have time to watch almost two hours speech. Maybe they are right it is the West that have created Putin or maybe not.

Markus

[Catfish]

It is not about Putin, or blaming the US! Please, take your time and listen, it is all very clear.
Pozner's speech is only 45 minutes, rest is discussion.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Catfish

It is not about Putin, or blaming the US! Please, take your time and listen, it is all very clear.
Pozner's speech is only 45 minutes, rest is discussion.

I am listerning to him-Are about 17 minutes into the video.
(But due to my bad short memory I will have forgot what he spoke about in detail after)

Edit
Now I remember why I wrote "Maybe they are right it is the West that have created Putin or maybe not."

That's almost the title of the video - How The United States created Vladimir Putin. I forgot it was United States and not the West.
End edit

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Boris Johnson will telephone Russian President Vladimir Putin and visit eastern Europe in the coming days as the UK steps up its diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukraine border crisis.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60179127

Looks like everything is going to be alright then.

We can all relax, safe in the knowledge Putin will enjoy being entertained by the clown and let sleeping dogs lie.

[mapuc]

Regarding this video clip.

Can't remember each word he said in those 45 minutes he spoke to the audience.

I can remember thinking Aha that's why Russia wants NATO to leave Eastern Europe and not just preventing Ukraine to become a member of NATO.

Then he talked about a kind of a joint deal between Russia and NATO.

Why not let Russia become an almost member of NATO.

Meaning-They do not take part in each exercise but they will be protected by the 5th article-If someone attack Russia NATO send military help.

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Why not let Russia become an almost member of NATO.

We have been there, over two decades ago. They said No.

Meaning-They do not take part in each exercise but they will be protected by the 5th article-If someone attack Russia NATO send military help.

Since when does Russia need protection? They think they need protection against only one - NATO's ever closing territorial embrace.

See here:
https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...&postcount=343

Despite the end of communism, Russia's ideological expansionism also persists. In the process, the Marxist-proletarian urge to spread – with the staff not only remaining the same in Putin’s person – was replaced by a dull ideological mixture: Consisting firstly of Russian nationalism, secondly of racial pan-Slavism, thirdly of a rollback revanchism with nostalgia for Stalin’s greatness and fourthly an anti-democratism along the lines of "Dictators of all countries unite".
Even more absurd, but still relevant, is another motive that is also involved: that is Russian paranoia, which has been proven for many centuries. Though it has long been the largest country on earth, Russia has always felt threatened and encircled, and has always wanted to expand for its own safety. Sick but true.

[mapuc]

^ I don't feel for watching these 45 minutes once again-Just to see what word he used instead of my own word deal.

There was something Putin want AND i'm not talking about NATO shall leave Eastern Europe or preventing Ukraine to become a member.

I just can't remember the word or the sentence he used together with this word.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Top US General Mark Milley has said that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be "horrific" and would lead to a significant number of casualties.

Gen Milley described the build-up of 100,000 Russian troops near Ukraine's border as the largest since the Cold War.

But US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said conflict could still be avoided through the use of diplomacy.

Russia denies plans to invade and says US support for Ukraine is a threat.

At a news conference at the Pentagon on Friday, Gen Milley - US President Joe Biden's most senior military officer - warned that the scale of Russia's forces near its border with Ukraine meant an attack would have severe consequences.

"If that was unleashed on Ukraine, it would be significant, very significant, and it would result in a significant amount of casualties," said the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff.

Fighting in dense urban areas would be "horrific, it would be terrible", Gen Milley added.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60177929

[Skybird]

Maybe they want not to conquer all Ukraine, but instead blitz Kiev, install a puppet regime, and/or declare the Donbass an "independent" (Russian-friendly) brother state.

The announced manouvers in Belarus saw them accumulating severe troop strength in Belarus. Now, looking at the map, if that force blitzes directly south, it bypasses Kiewv in its West and lands in the Western Ukraine, able to block any possible push of NAOT ground forces that for whatever an insane reason would rush in from the West. It also blocks logistical supplies coming in from that direction. Both ground and air transports.

At their border with Belarus, they seem to have two big formations. If these move directly south as well, they land right in Kiev. By car: 3 hours. In war: longer, but it would be a Blitz nevertheless.

They have another couple of formations that embrace the Donbass like a rescent. There they could pince-attack the region and embrace it to death, so to speak.

Their small force in Moldavia completes the sealing against the West.

S-400s are operating in the area.

The Russian widespread deployment along these three likely axis of attack also force the Ukraine to thin out its troop lines because it must cover a longer frontline. The Russian on the other hand have the freeedom to amass and focus wherever they want.

All the time Mariupol in the south near the Crimean is at risk, too.

The Russians have almost perfect attack positions now, and have maximised their options, their degrees of decision freedom. Whatever they want to do and which road they prefer to chose from here on: they are in the idealt starting block. If those maps in Western media get it right, they have set up exactly like I would have done it. The Ukrainians however must be everywhere, and thus their lines are thin everywhere: at least as long as they do not will to give up ground, according to the old wisdom of that he who wants to defend everything, will loose evertyhing. They still talk as if they think they could get back the Crimean, so I am not optimstic about their sense of realism. But maybe thats just acting of theirs.

[mapuc]

< Skybird wrote "All the time Mariupol in the south near the Crimean is at risk, too."

I think you are correct on this

More than 20 ships of the Black Sea Fleet had departed from Sevastopol and Novorossiysk for exercises in the Black Sea, the Press Service of the Southern Military district said in a Monday news release.

https://news.usni.org/2022/01/26/140...ensions-simmer

Again I remembered wrong I thought these naval exercise was to be held in February and not now in the end of January.

Markus