US seeks 'tough' N Korea sanctions

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Yep. Just one thing really is worrying, or two.

First, the chance that NK shells the south with dirty grenades or bombs, shells with radioactive material to contaminate the region. Second, the NK seems to turn increasingly desperate, and that is what makes such regimes even more ruthless and not caring for any future: because they have nothing to lose.

Primitive weapons and no gasoline to fuel planes and tanks - okay, but the AK-47's bullets still kill when hitting and the old iron bomb still explodes. A war still would call a tremendous blood toll, on both sides. I only say: get a map and check the topography. Mountains. Hills. Plenty of woods. The right place to play the old cowboys and indians in the jungle type of game.

Maybe that path cannot be avoided, nevertheless. Ball is in the North's field. And I am against making concessions again.

What a war would mean in financial burdens for an already bankrupt America, I do not even mention.

It's entirely possible that they could do such a thing, but their artillery range is fairly limited, they don't have any standard artillery that can reach Seoul, only missiles. So what they would hope to achieve with a dirty shell attack is beyond me, extend the DMZ perhaps?
Certainly it would cause alarm and concern, and a large scale retaliation which would cause a lot more damage to the DPRK than the DPRK inflicted to begin with, even if the clean up would be easier.

The DPRK is in a corner, this is true, but Kim is not a Muslim, he knows that as long as he keeps control over the military then he has a cushy number. It is most likely this concern which has prompted him to conduct the nuclear and missile tests, in order to gain approval from the military and cement his position. The military know that if they start a war then it's all over for them, they can see the guns of the ROK, the ships and drones of the US, they have access to the internet, they know that their only hope of continued survival in the future is the nuclear bomb. If they gain enough nuclear weapons then the south will not invade them. When they are able to miniaturise the nuclear weapons enough to put them on a missile, then things get a little more tricky because it comes down to how much damage they can inflict knowing that the retaliation will be total. However, right now their nuclear weapons are about the size of Fat Boy or Little Man, they have to be dropped by aircraft, and no aircraft is getting a millimeter across the DMZ without getting a SAM shoved up its exhaust pipe.

Now, the terrain is good for jungle warfare, however they have to get across the DMZ first, which has a mine in every other square foot, which has countless killzones marked and remarked. A simple few radio codewords and the southern part of the DMZ becomes a sea of fire. It would be a massacre, and although the DPRK will cross the DMZ through weight of numbers alone, it will not be able to repeat its success in the last Korean war by driving south to Pusan, it just doesn't have the mobility, nor does it have the airpower to cover it.
It will be open season for anything airbourne with infra-red sensors, although I admit, the infantry will be hard to find, it would be like Vietnam in that respect...but such an approach in warfare would not achieve much, and certainly wouldn't capture Seoul any time soon.

The casualty count on the DPRK side would be ridiculously high, and eventually the ROK would gain the initiative and push north, which would lead to a massive crisis in the DPRK leadership.

In regards to America, well I can't say, but honestly bankruptcy or not, if you don't want Iran or the DPRK to have the bomb, then America is your only hope, Europe won't do anything about it, Russia and China won't do anything about it...so you'd better hope that the US isn't bankrupt because they're the only people willing to step up and do the job that you want doing.


If I were Kim though, I'd use those nuclear weapons in a similar manner to which we used our mines in the opening of the Battle for Messines Ridge. Would open up the DMZ quite well by blasting several kilotonnes worth of holes in it. Wouldn't even need to tunnel all the way to the other side of the DMZ (although it would be advantageous to the DPRK if they could detonate the nukes UNDER the border forces, but the risk of detection before detonation would be too high) just plant them in the middle in several clusters and detonate to clear a way through the minefields. Use the artillery to clear a way through the defending forces and then send in the shock forces to break through what's left.
However even this plan (which relies on a lot of things going right for the DPRK) wouldn't be enough to capture Seoul, because the ROK would just fall back and commence massive attrition and the USAF would join in the fun and games shortly afterwards and that would be the end of the war.

Whichever way you wargame it, the DPRK doesn't get anywhere near as far as it did in the last Korean war, in fact, in many circumstances it doesn't even get as far as Seoul.
I won't write the DPRK military off completely, like you say, a bullet is a bullet, it will still kill, however the fact that is for every one DPRK bullet, the Allied Forces can return a missile worth fifty bullets. It will be bloody, but at the end of the day, the biggest blood will be shed by North Korea...and that's why they won't attack, they will do every single thing they can up to that point, but they will not initiate all out war...because they will lose, and defeat will mean the end of their comfortable lifestyles, which although they are becoming harder with each passing sanction, are still much better off than the people below them.

No, in my opinion, they are dragging this out until they can miniaturise a nuclear weapon, and then they will sit back and say "Right, well, we've done it...now let's talk about arms levels." All this posturing is just mirroring the internal power struggle between the new boy and his military.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by mookiemookie

Just like they did in May of 1994, April of 1996, February of 2003, July of 2003, August of 2006 and May of 2009.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/nort...04200315F.HTML

Yup, business as usual on the Korean peninsula.

[Ducimus]

Originally Posted by mookiemookie

Just like they did in May of 1994, April of 1996, February of 2003, July of 2003, August of 2006 and May of 2009.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/nort...04200315F.HTML

Exactly! I was there for there for what i'll derogatorily call the "kimchi two-step" in 94 and 95. I went to the ROK expecting to die in a war. I'm simply not gonna get that worked up again, so color me unimpressed with the DPRK's latest tantrums. Insert "Boy who cried wolf" reference here.

[geetrue]

All we have to do is spray agent orange on their cabbage, but the way they eat sour cabbage ...

they probably wouldn't notice it

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by geetrue

All we have to do is spray agent orange on their cabbage, but the way they eat sour cabbage ...

they probably wouldn't notice it

They'd probably be grateful for the cabbage!

[Cybermat47]

Only just heard about this yesterday. I don't care what the analysts say, Kim Jong Un is crazy enough to launch nukes at the US. Even if they don't hit, it will have been a hostile act against the US. And they don't even need to hit the US to hurt the enemy, just trolley a nuke into South Korea. And seeing as my country's at war with these maniacs, I'm pretty creeped out by all this.

[Ducimus]

Originally Posted by Cybermat47

Only just heard about this yesterday. I don't care what the analysts say, Kim Jong Un is crazy enough to launch nukes at the US. Even if they don't hit, it will have been a hostile act against the US. And they don't even need to hit the US to hurt the enemy, just trolley a nuke into South Korea. And seeing as my country's at war with these maniacs, I'm pretty creeped out by all this.

You can get worried about it if you want to, but these shennanigans are par for the course when it comes to the DPRK. They've been doing it for decades. North Korea is primarily doing two things.

1.) The grandson (whom i shall call "Little Kim") is establishing his rule as a (Whatever) Leader to the people and military brass. He just took over, his rule isn't cemented, so he has to show off and prove his worth. Same BS in 94/95 when the "Son of Kim" took the reigns.

2. ) Playing the brinksmanship game (again) to get something. It's always the same, they bang the war drums until we start offering stuff so the DPRK stops banging the war drums. Give them 10 years (give or take), and they'll do it again. And again, and again, ad nausem.

EDIT:

I really wish I disobeyed directives and took more pictures while i was in the ROK. The whole peninsula is geared for war. Some of the built in prepairations would blow some of your minds. Expressways that double as emergency runways, clear cuts maintained along northern perimeter fences to allow for an unobstructed fields of fire. Even drop down segments in perimeter fences, featuring (what im assuming was) vulcan mini guns you'd expect to see mounted in aircraft - all facing north, and i was seeing these preparations as far south as Taegu and Kwang Ju.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Oberon

So what they would hope to achieve with a dirty shell attack is beyond me,

The same logic that Assad followed at the end. Gaddafi. Hitler.

Do damage. Leave burnt earth. Suvive as long as possible. Keep the grab to power as long as possible. and if falling, pull all world down with them as well.

"If this is my end, I will drown the world in fire, blood and ashes."

[geetrue]

Ya'll are laughing at north Korean having done this before, but surely you error by thinking this new young ruler is not serious.

Remember he is young and Kim Jong Un is taking these new sanctions seriously enough to threaten the USA with his real missiles and his real nukes ...

never mind that they can't really make it across the Pacific ocean with any certainity of landing within 50 yards of the target, as our own submarine launched missiles would land.

He actually thinks everyone listens to him and he knows this is true in his own country, because he makes them laugh on cue and he makes them cry on cue.

I for one think we need to take him seriously, meaning our state department, and let him win this little cry baby scheme.

Use this as a way to get the truth into his fellow citzens and offer a sit down as long as the world can watch on world wide media and news people can ask any question and get answers to long held
suspicions of neglect in his country.

Sit down like real men and talk without squirming out on the truth of why these sanctions are against North korean in the first place.

Set him up and let him answer or crawl back to the safety of lying
to his own citzens.

The truth is the light North Korean needs

[Skybird]

Yes, let's sit together and talk it over, together united we can get this thing solved, it just needs reason and good will.

Really.

Have a little faith.

WHAM.

Ooops. Another Neville landing hard on the floor of rock-hard reality.

[Ducimus]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Ooops. Another Neville landing hard on the floor of rock-hard reality.

That's what the DPRK will be saying if they actually follow through on their threats for once. In the ROK, there are 60 years worth of prepositioned assets, hardened positions, readiness training, and technological advances.

Believe it or not, there are some who believe the reason we're still there isn't to keep the north rolling into the south, but to keep the south from rolling into the north.

Kim would have the kimchi beat out of him, and they know it. That's why their beating the nuclear drum. Thats his best card on the table, and as long as he has it, he gets what he wants. If he plays that card, he'll lose everything.

[mookiemookie]

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Without giving further source information, a German newspaper today referred to "an American expert" who should have mentioned this theory: the recently started NKorean satellite from all beginning on did not emit any signals, communication or otherwise. Usually it is described as being a technical malfunction, a failed experiment. But the satellite is big enough to hold a 10 kt nuclear warhead. The "American expert" also explained that 10 kt are almost optimal to cause an EMP that would have sufficient energy to hit a whole hemisphere of the globe and knock all electronics, computers, comm systems out. That"American experts" also should have said that the satellite currently passes the American region in direction from south to North - and that the American early warning radar detection for space observations towards the south of the US is weak, since the primary defences are oriented to other other directions. If this "American expert" exists and said these things, than he seemed to imply that the NKoreans could sneak in a stealth attack by lowering the orbit during its south-to north approach on the US, bypass any possible satellite defence systems, and detonate for an EMP at lower altitude over the centre of the US.

I am undecided on what to make of this story and currently form no opinion on it, I only take note of it. But something like this certainly is a much more likely scenario to attack the US than to assume somebody launches ICBMs at it, especially when the attacker has technological short legs only to run on.

If the story would be real and the claims hold ground, this satellite must be taken out. Immediately. No matter the costs, no matter the effort, no matter the political fallout. Accepting a knife at your throat with the knife held by a desperate, irrational megalomaniac nutjob who has lost contact with reality and is desperately craving for attention and imagines that his survival is at stake, is no option.

[Oberon]

It's certainly a possibility, but what purpose would it serve the DPRK? It would knock continental US for six, this is true, but it would do jack about the ROK and the US forces in Japan and Korea and would not do much to stop a US carrier group from steaming into Korean waters and flattening anything it saw. Furthermore, since it would be pretty obvious (since you can bet that satellite is being monitored) who conducted the attack then it would be a carte blanche for the US to wipe the DPRK leadership off the planet.

No matter which way around you look at it, the end result is the fiery destruction of the Kim regime, and I can't see Kim doing that, his situation is dire, yes, but he is still well fed, well protected and in power, and his people are cowed enough not to rise up against him. The only wild card is the military, and that's most likely who all this sabre rattling is aimed at pleasing, once Little Kim has the military on side then his rule is fairly cosy.