Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[ET2SN]

Originally Posted by mapuc

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/...us-senate-vote

Hope it will give Ukraine some needed help.

Markus

Don't read too much into this, yet.
The bill still needs to make it past the clown show in the Congress before the President can sign it.

[ET2SN]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Syrskyi in, Zaluzhnyi out. What our army sources expect from Ukraine’s army reshuffle

Ukraine’s new commander-in-chief faces a critical frontline situation, institutional problems, and trust issues On 8 February, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy made the announcement that seemed inevitable: he sacked Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, replacing him with General Oleksandr Syrskyi. Rumors about a brewing conflict between Ukraine’s top leaders were swirling for months, escalating on 29 January in a botched-up attempt to fire the highly popular Zaluzhnyi. Then, multiple sources reported that Land Forces Commander Syrskyi and spy chief Kyrylo Budanov were tapped to replace Zaluzhnyi yet refused.

Eventually, Zelenskyy chose Syrskyi and now announced that “a new management team is taking over the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.” What did Zaluzhnyi achieve, what did he not manage to do, and can Syrskyi break the stalemate at the front? Euromaidan Press talked to three Ukrainian officers, a sergeant, a seasoned army volunteer and sieved through the latest Ukrainian analyses to understand what’s next... https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/02/...le/?swcfwerwer

I'm thinking this isn't as dramatic as it looks.
Zaluzhnyi has been in charge of the military for a while. Maybe the idea is to bring in not necessarily "better" ideas but some "different" ideas and plans to keep the Russians guessing?

[Skybird]

First use of a Zircon in combat.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/13/e...-ml/index.html

Three questions: 1. How much does this rocket cost? 2. What is Russia's production capacity? 3. To what level can production be increased?

And two follow-up questions: 4. How can you learn to recognise it? 5. How long will it take to develop a counter-ammunition against it?

[Jimbuna]

US Senate passes bill sending aid to Ukraine

The Democratic-led US Senate has passed a $95bn bill containing aid for Ukraine - as well as Israel and Taiwan.

It was supported by a vote of 70-29, with 22 Republicans joining most Democrats in passing the bill.

However, the measure will now be sent to the Republican-controlled House of Representatives - where its chances of passing are substantially lower.

Doubts are growing about the legislation's fate in the House, where it must be approved before it can be signed into law.

Even before the Senate vote, eight hardline Republican opponents of Ukraine aid held an overnight marathon of speeches that dominated the chamber floor for more than six hours.

Joe Biden has been urging Congress to allow more aid to Ukraine and other US partners, but he has come up against tough Republican opposition - largely from those aligned with Donald Trump.

The bill has been criticised by Republican Mike Johnson, Speaker of the House of Representatives, for lacking provisions to stem immigration.

"In the absence of having received any single border policy change from the Senate, the House will have to continue to work its own will on these important matters," Mr Johnson said in a statement.

"America deserves better than the Senate's status quo," said Mr Johnson, who has suggested in the past that the House could split the legislation into separate bills.

[mapuc]

A question I ask myself-Why losing lots of men in defending Avdiivka I say withdraw the men and make new defense lines.

Yes Russia loses many men in trying to take the town, however Ukraine is losing a lot of men too.



Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

A question I ask myself-Why losing lots of men in defending Avdiivka I say withdraw the men and make new defense lines.

Yes Russia loses many men in trying to take the town, however Ukraine is losing a lot of men too.

Markus

Because Russia losses more material (Artillery, Tanks, IFV's, APC's) every day than Ukraine does, think this ratio is the same for infantry. Open source data analysis of the Battle of Avdiivka indicates a massive disparity in losses since October 2023, including a ten-to-one difference in tank losses in Ukraine's favour.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

First use of a Zircon in combat.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/13/e...-ml/index.html

Three questions: 1. How much does this rocket cost? 2. What is Russia's production capacity? 3. To what level can production be increased?

And two follow-up questions: 4. How can you learn to recognise it? 5. How long will it take to develop a counter-ammunition against it?

The unit cost is US$5–10 million (estimate) maybe the Pokrova EW system can be used. https://mil.in.ua/en/news/pokrova-ew...ed-in-ukraine/ A Zircon was shot down by Kyiv May 2023 by a Patriot battery or crashed due to technical problems. There is no major difference between the Kinzhal and the Zircon, they are both hypersonic weapons. The Zircon is only primarily intended for attacks from the sea and designed to destroy enemy ships. However, a special version of the missile can also be used to incinerate targets on land. Astonishment also reigns in the West over the targets the Russians attacked with their precious Kinzhals or Zircons, such as weapons depots and power plants. These could just as easily have been targeted with other missiles, according to the Pentagon.

[August]

Originally Posted by mapuc

A question I ask myself-Why losing lots of men in defending Avdiivka I say withdraw the men and make new defense lines.

What would that change?



The Ukrainians would just loose men defending some other place. The new defense lines would be attacked just like the present ones are being attacked.

[Dargo]

Avdiivka is on higher ground full of trenches and bunkers, this is a better defence position than the open fields behind that town. Avdiivka defence is build for more than 9 years. Russia failed to kettle it now they changed their strategy and go in frontal building by building destroying everything on their way. That it will fall is a fact, but Ukraine will not give it away for free Russia will have to pay a very high price how longer they can hold Russia has no victory Putin wants for his election.

[mapuc]

You're right I stand corrected-Didn't think of the position of the town and it's surroundings.

Do remember-It doesn't matter how many thousands soldiers and material Russia lose. They have enough to engage Ukraine for another 3 years-I read this on X it said that Russia was using quantity over quality.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

You're right I stand corrected-Didn't think of the position of the town and it's surroundings.

Do remember-It doesn't matter how many thousands soldiers and material Russia lose. They have enough to engage Ukraine for another 3 years-I read this on X it said that Russia was using quantity over quality.

Markus

Correct Russia can bring older tanks, but Ukraine has now more drones to take out more Russia equipment than it had during the battle of Bakhmut, they have become particularly good at destroying artilleries, tanks and other vehicles.

Oleksandr Syrskyi: "The Russian army is now advancing along the entire front, the situation can be called complicated. The Ukrainian army has shifted from offensive actions to defence, the purpose of which is to inflict maximum losses on the Russian Federation." The new AFU commander-in-chief called the main value of soldiers' lives, and therefore, according to him, he is "ready to retreat from some position rather than sacrifice all personnel". https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1757475261824508372

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Correct Russia can bring older tanks, but Ukraine has now more drones to take out more Russia equipment than it had during the battle of Bakhmut, they have become particularly good at destroy artilleries, tanks and other vehicles.

Oleksandr Syrskyi: "The Russian army is now advancing along the entire front, the situation can be called complicated. The Ukrainian army has shifted from offensive actions to defence, the purpose of which is to inflict maximum losses on the Russian Federation." The new AFU commander-in-chief called the main value of soldiers' lives, and therefore, according to him, he is "ready to retreat from some position rather than sacrifice all personnel". https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1757475261824508372

Read somewhere that Ukraine had both developed a longrange Drone and has build a factory where these shall be build. These drones-Suicide drones - can reach far behind the Russian border.

If true then Ukraine can do what is very much needed-Attack important targets in Russia. Which they already do, but now they can attack on a broader scale.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Read somewhere that Ukraine had both developed a longrange Drone and has build a factory where these shall be build. These drones-Suicide drones - can reach far behind the Russian border.

If true then Ukraine can do what is very much needed-Attack important targets in Russia. Which they already do, but now they can attack on a broader scale.

Markus

Overall, more than 300,000 drones of different types were contracted last year and more than 100,000 were sent to the front. Ukraine will produce thousands of long-range drones capable of deep strikes into Russia in 2024 and already has up to 10 companies making drones that can reach Moscow and St Petersburg. The category of long-range kamikaze drones is growing, with a range of 300, 500, 700, and 1,000 kilometres. Ukraine's production levels and deliveries increased more than 120 times in 2023 part of a broader wartime push to develop and produce drones to narrow the gap with Russia's strike capabilities.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Overall, more than 300,000 drones of different types were contracted last year and more than 100,000 were sent to the front. Ukraine will produce thousands of long-range drones capable of deep strikes into Russia in 2024 and already has up to 10 companies making drones that can reach Moscow and St Petersburg. The category of long-range kamikaze drones is growing, with a range of 300, 500, 700, and 1,000 kilometres. Ukraine's production levels and deliveries increased more than 120 times in 2023 part of a broader wartime push to develop and produce drones to narrow the gap with Russia's strike capabilities.

Thank you.

One may say that the way war is being fought on the battlefield has somehow changed.

Markus

[Skybird]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=157eb7e24ef3


It’s a painful loss for Ukraine—the first large settlement it’s lost to Russia in nearly a year—but, as a win, it’s potentially even more painful for Russia. In capturing a few square miles of demolished and depopulated urban terrain, the Kremlin has sacrificed almost exactly an entire mechanized division’s worth of tanks.

As open-source analyst @partisan_oleg pointed out, before the fall of the Soviet Union a 10,000-person motor-rifle division on paper would have 220 tanks. The Russian army still broadly adheres to Soviet force-design.

Since attacking Avdiivka in early October, the Russian 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies have lost 214 tanks that analyst @naalsio26 has counted. Mostly T-72s and T-80s, but also a few high-end T-90s. The Ukrainian brigades in and around Avdiivka meanwhile have lost just 18 tanks.

-----------------------

There is no doubt that the battle has been costly for Ukraine too. But the question is which side can better afford its losses: the Russians or the Ukrainians? We do not know the Ukrainian losses, like we do not know their losses at Bakhmut, or their exact losses over the full war.


Lets hope the Russians curse when they hear these cities' names. The louder, the better.