OT: @SeaQueen - best theoretical deployment of sonobuoys?

[SeaQueen]

Originally Posted by MarkShot

So, what's the best pattern to drop my buoys to locate that sub? I have anywhere from 1-3 helos and around 20 buoys/helo.

Should I drop them outside in? Inside out? Checker board pattern? Barrier lines?

I'm not really able to talk about what they'd actually, do, though, you understand. I can only talk about the mathematics of search theory. Honestly, what they'd actually do is frequently not what's mathematically the best solution, but that's because operators have other constraints that aren't taken into account. This isn't to say that what they'd do isn't informed by the mathematics (because it is) just that they might not be able to actually make it happen that way.

The answer depends on the nature and size of the AOU as well as the assumptions you make about what the submarine is going to do after generating the DATUM. For example, suppose you got a radar hit from a snorkeling submarine and then he disappeared. If you assume that the submarine is equally likely to go in all directions then the AOU would expand circularly. If you assume he's only going to go in a smaller number of directions (roughly in the direction of your surface ships, for example) then it might only be a pie-shaped wedge.

I would generally drop them from the outside in, though, because if the AOU is generated correctly, it ought to represent the outter limit of where the submarine is most likely to actually be. As time goes by, the probability of detection for you gets smaller and smaller by virtue of the area you need to search getting larger, hence the fractional area covered by your sensors is always decreasing. The periphery of the AOU represents where your probability of detection will always be at it's worse and if you can exclude him from being there early (or at least make it unlikely) it just makes it easier earlier to find him, if that makes sense.

[MarkShot]

Thanks, SeaQueen.

What I found after quite a bit of playing around with HCCE is that the most important thing is time:

(1) If you have anything in the air with buoys still on board, then dettach from the group and get them their quickly.

(2) When building your formation, don't put everything in the air. Keep 1 or 2 on ALERT-5 ready to press a contact as soon as you get one.

(3) Get to the spot a little faster ... the game will default to cruise, but instead crank it up to military.

* Manage your helos well such that once you have contact don't let it be broken.

I have not done any analysis, but it looks like due to the three dimensional behavior TIME by AREA that search space grows exponentially with time. So, properly handling time appears that it can halved the scope of the problem. Beyond that, I have been going outside in ... although many Pooners also spoke of creating a buoy barrier between your SAG (the target) and the contact as a defensive measure.

Thanks, again.

[SeaQueen]

That's true. Minimizing the time it takes before you can begin your search is a big deal because it means the AOU surrounding your initial detection will be as small as possible so your odds are greatly improved.

Also, keeping a helo ready to go is always a good idea. I'm not sure if the classic edition of Harpoon has the custom ready times feature, though, so sometimes you have to be careful. Sortie rates can become absurdly high in that game, if I remember correctly. Custom ready times and the DB2000 did a lot to get the numbers more in agreement with reality.

Creating a buoy barrier is not necessarily a bad idea, particularly if you want to protect specific area. It doesn't even necessarily have to be massive, either. You might put a modest barrier out there that had a sort of middle-of-the-road likelyhood of detecting a transiting submarine, and combine it with a submarine barrier on one side and a minefield or a DDG on the other side. The probability of any one of the assets detecting and destroying the submarine might be iffy but all of them together are almost certain.

One of my gripes with Harpoon is that the sonobuoy inventories of warships appear to be basically unlimited so unrealistically dense barriers become a possibility. Another gripe I have is that as far as I can tell, only the aircraft laying the sonobuoy field can monitor it, which isn't realistic and makes it hard to develop tactics for turning over an area from an MPA to a helo, say.

But anyhow, in real life there exist no single ASW silver bullets. It's the combination of a lot of different platforms, each of which might not detect a target with any certainty by itself, but in combination, they make it very difficult.

Originally Posted by MarkShot

Thanks, SeaQueen.

What I found after quite a bit of playing around with HCCE is that the most important thing is time:

(1) If you have anything in the air with buoys still on board, then dettach from the group and get them their quickly.

(2) When building your formation, don't put everything in the air. Keep 1 or 2 on ALERT-5 ready to press a contact as soon as you get one.

(3) Get to the spot a little faster ... the game will default to cruise, but instead crank it up to military.

* Manage your helos well such that once you have contact don't let it be broken.

I have not done any analysis, but it looks like due to the three dimensional behavior TIME by AREA that search space grows exponentially with time. So, properly handling time appears that it can halved the scope of the problem. Beyond that, I have been going outside in ... although many Pooners also spoke of creating a buoy barrier between your SAG (the target) and the contact as a defensive measure.

Thanks, again.