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#2 |
Fleet Admiral
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Check out this extract from this document: http://www.informs-cs.org/wsc03papers/123.pdf
Sound like there just isn't much data around on this and the variables were significant enough to make it difficult to do anything but guesstimate. "Perhaps the biggest unknown factor regarding U-Boat activity concerned the time spent in port, and this remains the biggest unknown regarding the link between the Bay of Biscay simulation and the real-world operation. There was simply not enough data available to support anything but an educated, reasoned guess. In the simulation, U-Boats time in port is given as a random variable between 25-40 days, inclusive. This is derived from (Morse and Kimball 1998) which states that the average time a U-Boat would spend “about 30 days” in a port operating under its capacity (no strict queuing argument is attached to the word capacity in this instance). However, from other sources, most notably (McCue 1990), the French ports were often choked beyond their ability to service all the boats at any given time, especially toward the end of the war when German resources became scarce." |
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