Are blue water conflicts a thing of the past?

LoBlo · 02-03-07, 10:45 PM

For example. The USN activity in Iraq (in the Persian Gulf) can be considered a shallow water op. Relatively close in a shallow body of water. Consequently, the old USSR vs USA scenarios, for example battles in the GUIK gap, can be considered deep water ops in relatively open ocean.

So the question is whether or not all future battles will be "Persian gulf style", that is, in shallow waters near coastlines, or whether or not a deep water conflict is still conceivable. Both will involve the Navy equally.

Henson · 02-04-07, 01:38 AM

The Chinese are building 15 subs a year.

The US is building one.

:hmm:

OneShot · 02-04-07, 07:32 AM

I would say that depends on the opponents and especially the area of operations.

If one party needs to ship lots of stuff over the ocean, maybe even in convoys then the likelihood for blue water battles considerably goes up (if the opponent has blue water capable forces). So I would say it depends ... in a hypothetical fight between China and America I would put some money down on the increase of blue water battles. On the other hand in a fight like Iran vs. America it would most certainly be restricted to Brown Water / Coastal Ops (with the odd exception of course).

Bottom Line : Who knows ...

LoBlo · 02-04-07, 07:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Henson

The Chinese are building 15 subs a year. The US is building one.

I've heard sentiment that the US and China will never have open conflict since they are so economically intertwined... it would be like lumberjacks going to war with woodworkers... they need each other too much.

then again... all it would take is one ultra-nationalist pyscho to take power...

Henson · 02-04-07, 09:50 AM

I sort of agree with the idea that the US and China won't fight, for a couple of reasons. Chief among them is, there's not any good reason to. Yeah, yeah, Taiwan, I know....but no one ever accused the Chinese of being stupid.

What the Chinese are aiming at is exactly what the US has enjoyed in the western hemisphere since the advent of the Monroe Doctrine: regional hegemony. They're telling other imperialist nations to stay out of their backyard, just like the US tells nations to stay out of the western hemisphere. As long as they refrain from overturning free governments or exporting human rights abuses I'm not sure the US has any moral basis for interfering in their peaceful economic and/or military expansion.

In short, they're doing the same dang thing we have done for over a century...how the hell do we get off complaining about it?

LoBlo · 02-04-07, 10:51 AM

I think the complaining really stems from a since of paranoia, the idealogy is so different... I still remember the Beijing (sp?) massacre where in the face of a peaceful protest the military opened up automatic machine gun fire on crowds of teenagers... with military grade hollow-point bullets even. That "I exist to serve the collective" ideology is like the RL Star Trek Borg.... and with the individualist ideology here in American we're bound to always have a baseline of suspicion/chargin...

So we cover up our suspicious with complaining and protest.

Some think that China will eventually have democratic elections... but the last attempt (a couple of years ago) was denied... if/when it happens it won't be anytime soon.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Henson

I sort of agree with the idea that the US and China won't fight, for a couple of reasons. Chief among them is, there's not any good reason to. Yeah, yeah, Taiwan, I know....but no one ever accused the Chinese of being stupid.

What the Chinese are aiming at is exactly what the US has enjoyed in the western hemisphere since the advent of the Monroe Doctrine: regional hegemony. They're telling other imperialist nations to stay out of their backyard, just like the US tells nations to stay out of the western hemisphere. As long as they refrain from overturning free governments or exporting human rights abuses I'm not sure the US has any moral basis for interfering in their peaceful economic and/or military expansion.

In short, they're doing the same dang thing we have done for over a century...how the hell do we get off complaining about it?

fatty · 02-04-07, 10:52 AM

In the next 15-20 years I would say yes, beyond that I don't know.

View Poll Results: Are open ocean battles a thing of the past...?
Yes! No one is going to fight in the open ocean anytime soon, ALL action will be coastal waters	11	14.86%
Yes! But China's blue water capabilities are closer than you might think...	11	14.86%
No... open ocean battles are unlikely, but there's still a possibility...	41	55.41%
Heck if I know... now where did I put that remote control...	11	14.86%
Voters: 74. You may not vote on this poll

02-03-07, 10:45 PM	#1
LoBlo Subsim Diehard Join Date: May 2006 Location: Texas! Posts: 971 Downloads: 78 Uploads: 3	For example. The USN activity in Iraq (in the Persian Gulf) can be considered a shallow water op. Relatively close in a shallow body of water. Consequently, the old USSR vs USA scenarios, for example battles in the GUIK gap, can be considered deep water ops in relatively open ocean. So the question is whether or not all future battles will be "Persian gulf style", that is, in shallow waters near coastlines, or whether or not a deep water conflict is still conceivable. Both will involve the Navy equally. __________________ "Seek not to offend or annoy... only to speak the truth"-a wise man

02-04-07, 07:32 AM	#3
OneShot Grey Wolf Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Germany Posts: 956 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	I would say that depends on the opponents and especially the area of operations. If one party needs to ship lots of stuff over the ocean, maybe even in convoys then the likelihood for blue water battles considerably goes up (if the opponent has blue water capable forces). So I would say it depends ... in a hypothetical fight between China and America I would put some money down on the increase of blue water battles. On the other hand in a fight like Iran vs. America it would most certainly be restricted to Brown Water / Coastal Ops (with the odd exception of course). Bottom Line : Who knows ... __________________ All the things you always wanted to know about Dangerous Waters but never dared to ask!

02-04-07, 01:38 AM	#2
Henson Planesman Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 185 Downloads: 13 Uploads: 0	The Chinese are building 15 subs a year. The US is building one. :hmm:

02-04-07, 09:50 AM	#5
Henson Planesman Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 185 Downloads: 13 Uploads: 0	I sort of agree with the idea that the US and China won't fight, for a couple of reasons. Chief among them is, there's not any good reason to. Yeah, yeah, Taiwan, I know....but no one ever accused the Chinese of being stupid. What the Chinese are aiming at is exactly what the US has enjoyed in the western hemisphere since the advent of the Monroe Doctrine: regional hegemony. They're telling other imperialist nations to stay out of their backyard, just like the US tells nations to stay out of the western hemisphere. As long as they refrain from overturning free governments or exporting human rights abuses I'm not sure the US has any moral basis for interfering in their peaceful economic and/or military expansion. In short, they're doing the same dang thing we have done for over a century...how the hell do we get off complaining about it?

02-04-07, 10:52 AM	#7
fatty The Old Man Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Canada Posts: 1,448 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	In the next 15-20 years I would say yes, beyond that I don't know.