What is CEP?

[SeaQueen]

Originally Posted by Linton

i saw this mentioned in relation to submarine operations and wondered what it meant.Does anybody have any idea?

My suspicion is that it might be circular error probability.

If you're dropping munitions on a target, be it howitzer shells, ballistic missiles, laser guided bombs or whatever, the positioning of the actual locations of impact follows a bivariate normal distribution centered on the aimpoint. In the case of weapons that land more or less vertically on their target, the bivariate normal distribution is symmetric.

In that case, CEP is defined as the circle in which that bivariate normal equal to 0.50. That means that on average, 50% of the ordinance aimed at a given point will fall within a circle with a radius equal to the CEP inscribed around the target.

Does this help?