Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Skybird]

[FOCUS] It's hard to keep up: On Friday, the new US President Donald Trump and his Vice President J.D. Vance humiliated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in front of the cameras. The planned raw materials agreement between the USA and Ukraine was not signed.

Zelensky flew straight on to London, where a crisis summit was held on Sunday after the disaster in Washington. But Trump continued to grumble - and upped the ante. US media reported on Tuesday that the President had stopped all American military aid to Ukraine. This included weapons that were already in transit.

Many interpret this as a clear attempt at blackmail: Either Zelensky signs the raw materials agreement with the United States on Trump's terms - or he will be abandoned militarily. On Tuesday evening US time, Trump gave a speech to the US Congress. In the midst of this mixed situation, it was eagerly awaited, many assumed the worst. And then everything turned out completely differently.

In his speech, Trump struck a mild tone for his standards. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj had declared his willingness to negotiate peace in a letter, he explained. "I appreciate that."

What Trump then quoted was very reminiscent of a post that Selenskyj had published on the social network X. "My team and I are ready to work under the strong leadership of President Trump to achieve lasting peace," the Ukrainian wrote to the White House. The raw materials agreement should now also be signed.

So everything is back to square one? The question inevitably arises as to whether the drama between Friday and Wednesday could have been avoided. But, as is so often the case, the devil is in the details. It is unclear, for example, what Selenskyj will get from Trump for his country's raw materials.

"My impression is that Zelensky wanted to put everything on the line and try again to get security guarantees for his country through," security expert Christian Mölling told the Tagesspiegel. "At the same time, he made it clear where his red line is. The current status is that Zelensky is willing to negotiate - but he hasn't signed anything yet."

It is currently impossible to say whether something different will come out of it for Trump than was the case on Friday. "So far, there is only this letter from Zelensky. We don't know what Trump will make of it and whether he will continue to blackmail Ukraine," says Mölling.

It is also unclear what Zelensky hopes to achieve by concluding the agreement on the second attempt. Is he speculating that the USA will reverse the halt to military aid? Or that his country will continue to receive intelligence information from Washington?

I suspect that the Americans will now simply put massive pressure on Zelensky to simply sign the deal; no matter what clauses are in it.

Only on Wednesday afternoon did it become known that this information sharing, which is so important for Kyiv, is currently suspended - possibly deliberately to make Selensky compliant.

"I think that the Americans will now simply put massive pressure on him to simply sign the deal; no matter what clauses are in it," says Mölling. "Trump has made his torture tools - from humiliation to stopping military aid - clear to Selensky."

In any case, it is questionable to what extent the Ukrainian president can still rely on his unpredictable American counterpart.

"The Trump administration argues that the American companies and workers who are moving to Ukraine for the raw materials deal represent American security guarantees," explains the expert. "But how do we know that in the event of a Russian attack, Trump will not simply fly out all the Americans and Ukraine will end up alone again?"

Klemens Fischer, Professor of International Relations at the University of Cologne, sees last Friday's scandal in the White House and the entire aftermath as a production for the American people. "Trump has shown his voters that Ukraine and especially Selenskyi are supposedly ungrateful and that the Biden administration acted to the detriment of the American people," he says.

Selenskyi is now president by Trump's grace - and the American likes that.

For now, Zelenskyj's conciliatory message on X has probably appeased Trump a little, Fischer believes. Trump accepts Zelenskyi's kneeling as a first step. "He is happy with the image that emerges: Zelenskyi is being disciplined by Trump in front of the world public and has to meet Trump's requirements." At the same time, the scientist emphasizes: "As soon as If Zelenskyi becomes recalcitrant in Trump's eyes, the next humiliating disciplinary action follows. For now, a compliant Zelenskyi is more valuable to Trump because he has publicly forced him to his knees. Zelenskyi is now president by Trump's grace - and the American likes that."

The whole drama was only able to unfold in this way because European states have not had a clear course in recent months, says Fischer.

"It was only the Starmer initiative that untied the knot, with a 'coalition of the willing' neutralizing the expected blockade in the EU." But he adds directly: "Whether Trump's plan works depends above all on one person - and that is Putin."

[Catfish]

^ And Putin will do what he ever did. Welcome all free gifts, and continue with his plan.

Originally Posted by Eichhörnchen

We should've stayed down the pub

Like you proposed and a friend of mine said, you can only endure all this with lots of alcohol. Which is of course a bit cynical, when looking at the suffering in Ukraine.
Indeed we have been busy here, some friends and I have been to Ukraine delivering goods of all kinds in vans, also we are active again in the 'Reservistenverband'. Even have been on the shooting range again, if more for sports. Some new weapons, but not necessarily better. And of course we are getting too old too fast.

Still, this new overall situation makes you sick of course

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Markus

So Ukraine now needs to fight Russia, North Korea, the United States, and China?



"Viel Feind, viel Ehr'."

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Indeed we have been busy here, some friends and I have been to Ukraine delivering goods of all kinds in vans, also we are active again in

I figured something like that from some random comments of yours here and there. Respect!

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

So Ukraine now needs to fight Russia, North Korea, the United States, and China?



"Viel Feind, viel Ehr'."

I was imagine American boots on the ground, not helping Ukraine, but Russia, when I saw the video.

Markus

[Rockstar]

Here’s the full transcript of Macron’s speech:

“Inknow that you are legitimately concerned about the historic events that are shaking up the world order.

The war in Ukraine, which has resulted in almost a million deaths and injuries, continues unabated.

The United States of America, our ally, has changed its position on this war, supporting Ukraine less and leaving doubt as to what will happen next.

At the same time, the same United States intends to impose tariffs on products from Europe.

Finally, the world continues to grow ever more brutal, and the threat of terrorism continues unabated. All in all, our prosperity and security have become more uncertain.

It has to be said that we are entering a new era. The war in Ukraine has now been going on for more than three years. From day one, we decided to support Ukraine and sanction Russia.

And we were right to do so, because it is not only the Ukrainian people who are courageously fighting for their freedom, but it is also our security that is under threat. If one country can invade its neighbour in Europe with impunity, then no one can be sure of anything any more, and the law of the strongest will apply, and peace can no longer be guaranteed on our own continent. History has taught us that.

Beyond Ukraine, the Russian threat is there, affecting the countries of Europe, affecting us. Russia has already turned the Ukrainian conflict into a global conflict. It has mobilised North Korean soldiers and Iranian equipment on our continent, while helping these countries to further arm themselves.

President Putin's Russia violates our borders to assassinate opponents and manipulates elections in Romania and Moldova.

It is organising digital attacks on our hospitals to stop them operating. Russia is trying to manipulate our opinions with lies spread on social networks.

And basically, it's testing our limits. It does so in the air, at sea, in space and behind our screens. This aggression seems to know no bounds, and at the same time Russia continues to rearm, spending over 40% of its budget on it.

By 2030, it plans to have increased its army still further, with 300,000 more soldiers, 3,000 more tanks and 300 more fighter planes.

Against this backdrop, who can believe that the Russia of today will stop at Ukraine?

As I speak and for years to come, Russia has become a threat to France and to Europe. I deeply regret this and I am convinced that in the long term there will be peace on our continent with Russia once again at peace.

But this is the situation I am describing to you, and we have to live with it. Faced with this dangerous world, it would be foolish to remain a spectator.

Without further delay, we must take decisions for Ukraine, for the safety of the French, for the safety of Europeans.

First and foremost for Ukraine. All the initiatives that are helping to bring about peace are moving in the right direction. And this evening I would like to pay tribute to them.

We must continue to help the Ukrainians to resist until they can negotiate with Russia a solid peace for themselves and for us all. That is why the road to peace cannot involve abandoning Ukraine. Quite the contrary.

Peace cannot be achieved at any price and under Russian dictatorship. Peace cannot be Ukraine's capitulation. It cannot be its collapse.

Nor can it mean a ceasefire that is too fragile. And why not? Because here too we have the experience of the past. We cannot forget that Russia began invading Ukraine in 2014 and that we then negotiated a ceasefire in Minsk.

And the same Russia did not respect that ceasefire. And we have not been able to maintain the balance due to a lack of solid guarantees. Today, we can no longer take Russia at its word.

Ukraine has a right to peace and security for itself. And it is in our interest, it is in the interest of the security of the European continent. That is why we are working with our British and German friends and several other European countries.

That's why you've seen me bring several of them together in Paris in recent weeks, and meet them again in London a few days ago to consolidate the commitments that Ukraine needs.

Once peace has been signed, we need to prepare Ukraine so that it is not invaded by Russia again. This will undoubtedly involve long-term support for the Ukrainian army.

It may also involve deploying European forces. These forces would not go and fight today, they would not go and fight on the front line, but they would be there once the peace has been signed to ensure that it is fully respected.

Next week, in Paris, we will be bringing together the Chiefs of Defence Staff of those countries that wish to assume their responsibilities in this respect.

This is a plan for a solid, lasting and verifiable peace, which we have prepared with the Ukrainians and several other European partners, and which I defended in the United States a fortnight ago and throughout Europe.

And I want to believe that the United States will remain at our side, but we must be ready if this is not the case.

Whether or not peace in Ukraine is achieved quickly, given the Russian threat that I have just described to you, the European states must be able to defend themselves better and deter any further aggression.

Yes, whatever happens, we need to equip ourselves more, we need to raise our defence posture, and we need to do this for peace itself, to act as a deterrent.

In this respect, we remain committed to NATO and our partnership with the United States of America, but we need to do more, to strengthen our independence in terms of defence and security.

The future of Europe should not be decided in Washington or Moscow.

And yes, the threat is returning to the East and the innocence of the last thirty years, since the fall of the Berlin Wall, is now over.

Tomorrow in Brussels, at the Extraordinary Council meeting between the 27 Heads of State and Government, the Commission and the President of the Council, we will be taking decisive steps forward.

A number of decisions will be taken that France has been proposing for several years.

Member States will be able to increase their military spending without this being taken into account in their deficit.

Massive joint funding will be agreed to buy and produce some of the most innovative munitions, tanks, weapons and equipment in Europe.

I have asked the government to take action to ensure that this strengthens our armies as quickly as possible and speeds up the reindustrialisation of all our regions.

In the next few days, I will be meeting with the relevant ministers and industrialists in the sector.

The Europe of Defence that we have been advocating for eight years is therefore becoming a reality.

It means European countries that are more ready to defend and protect themselves, that produce together the equipment they need on their own soil, that are ready to cooperate more, to reduce their dependence on the rest of the world.

And that's a good thing. Germany, Poland, Denmark, the Baltic States and many of our partners have announced unprecedented efforts in terms of military spending.

So, in this time of action that is finally opening up, France has a special status.

We have the most effective army in Europe and, thanks to the choices made by our elders after the Second World War, we have nuclear deterrent capabilities.

This protects us much more than many of our neighbours.”

“What's more, we didn't wait for the invasion of Ukraine to realise that the world was a worrying place, and through the two military programming laws that I decided on and that successive Parliaments voted for, we will have doubled the budget for our armed forces in almost ten years.

But given the changing threats and the acceleration I have just described, we will have to make new budgetary choices and additional investments, which have now become essential.

I have asked the government to work on this as quickly as possible. These new investments will require the mobilisation of both private and public funding, without raising taxes.

This will require reforms, choices and courage. Our nuclear deterrent protects us. It is comprehensive, sovereign and French through and through.

Since 1964, it has explicitly played a role in preserving peace and security in Europe.

But in response to the historic appeal of the future German Chancellor, I have decided to open the strategic debate on the protection of our allies on the European continent by our deterrent.

Whatever happens, the decision has always been, and will remain, in the hands of the President of the Republic, the head of the armed forces.

Controlling our destiny, becoming more independent, is something we must work towards not only militarily, but also economically. Yes, economic, technological, industrial and financial independence are essential.

We must also prepare ourselves for the possibility that the United States may decide to impose tariffs on European goods, as it has just confirmed for Canada and Mexico.

This incomprehensible decision, both for the American economy and for ours, will have consequences for some of our industries.

It adds to the difficulty of the moment, but it will not go unanswered by us. So, while we prepare to fight back with our European colleagues, we will continue, as I did a fortnight ago, to do everything we can to convince them that this decision will hurt us all.

And, yes, I hope to convince and dissuade the President of the United States of America.

All in all, these are times that call for decisions unprecedented in many decades. When it comes to our agriculture, our research, our industry and all our public policies, we cannot have the same debates as in the past.

That's why I've asked the Prime Minister and his government, and I invite all the country's political, economic and trade union forces, to join with them in putting forward proposals in the light of this new context.

Tomorrow's solutions cannot be yesterday's habits. My dear compatriots, in the face of these challenges and these irreversible changes, we must not give in to any excesses, neither the excesses of the warmongers, nor the excesses of the defeatists.

France will follow only one course, that of the will for peace and freedom, faithful in this to its history and its principles.

Yes, this is what we believe in, for our security, but it is also what we believe in, to defend democracy, a certain idea of truth, a certain idea of free research, of respect in our societies, a certain idea of freedom of expression that is not the return of hate speech, basically, a certain idea of humanism. This is what we stand for and what is at stake.

Our Europe has the economic strength, the power and the talent to rise to the challenge of these times. And we have the means to take on the United States of America, let alone Russia. So we must act as one, as Europeans, and we must be determined to protect ourselves.

That's why our country needs you, and your commitment. Political decisions, military equipment and budgets are one thing, but they will never replace the fortitude of a nation. Our generation will no longer receive the dividends of peace.

It is up to us to ensure that our children reap the rewards of our commitments tomorrow. So we will face the future together.

Long live the Republic!

Long live France!”

[Gorpet]

Originally Posted by Catfish

^ And Putin will do what he ever did. Welcome all free gifts, and continue with his plan.


Like you proposed and a friend of mine said, you can only endure all this with lots of alcohol. Which is of course a bit cynical, when looking at the suffering in Ukraine.
Indeed we have been busy here, some friends and I have been to Ukraine delivering goods of all kinds in vans, also we are active again in the 'Reservistenverband'. Even have been on the shooting range again, if more for sports. Some new weapons, but not necessarily better. And of course we are getting too old too fast.

Still, this new overall situation makes you sick of course

Where is your YT video ? Otherwise it didn't happen and no citizen socialist are getting anywhere close to real soldiers,where they might get a nipple in their forehead.But when you get to old to fast and to fat.It's Easier to wage war on a keyboard.

[QUOTE=Skybird;2946951]So Ukraine now needs to fight Russia, North Korea, the United States

[Raf1394]

I agree what Macron says.

But i don't always take those statements serious.
Most of the countries don't have a clean history. France also did some bad things in there past.

Countries or governments these days, only make public statements if the specific conflict is in there disadvantage.
There are also other wars/conflicts going on. But nobody talks about them.
The M23 rebels taking over Congo for example... Nobody cares about that.

Jemen conflict, doesn't has a lot of media attention.

[Aktungbby]

Poor M. Macron may well have cocluded that, 'Merika having come to beleagured France's aid in 1918 and 1941, the "third time will not be the charm" in WWIII...

[Eichhörnchen]

Macron has rather put our own PM in the shade lately - I'm not complaining: he's talking tough. I don't know but it begins to look like a bit of a "good cop bad cop" thing emerging

[Exocet25fr]

Don't forget Lafayette.....!

micron is lying, Russians aren't threat the Western Europe, the Western Europe threats Russians........!

French people in his majority doesn't want a war.......!

Même pas peur.....!

Errare humanum est, perseverare diabolicum

[Catfish]

re Rockstar's quoted speech by Macron
Excellent speech, and Macron already said something similar a few years ago, which I welcomed. I was really astonished no other politician or else in Europe reacted in any way. Sure Macron and France have their own interest (whish is only legitimate) but chancellor Scholz just ducked and pretended not to hear it lol

[Eichhörnchen]

Moscow making threats now - they're getting the message

[Exocet25fr]

^
Now, of course!, after this new PROVOCATION !

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/top-r...threat/3501697

[Eichhörnchen]

Not provocation - a promise of a commitment to self-defence