Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Bilge_Rat]

what people do not seem to realize is that is does not matter what Zelensky wants. All of Ukraine, military, economy, government is being propped up by the US, not just the direct military aid, but spending by other agencies and international organizations like the IMF.

If Trump shuts off the money flow, Ukraine will collapse in short order unless the EU decides to pour in Billions of Euros to compensate.

But then that brings us back to the same basic question since the beginning of the war, namely what is the aim of the West in this war? The basic strategy so far as been hope: hope that the sanctions would cause the Russian economy and/or government to collapse; hope that the Ukrainian military would win on its own. That strategy is a failure.

If Europe really wants Ukraine to win, it would have to intervene militarily on a large scale, including ground troops and go to war with Russia, hoping it does not turn into a nuclear conflict.

Is Europe willing to take that step? If not, why continue to prolong this war?

Despite what our “leaders” are saying in public, no one believes Russia is planning to invade Europe.

[Skybird]

^ That give me an opportunity to repeat once again one of my most favourite quotes by General Sharon: "Hope is no strategy."

With one thing you are wrogn, I think. There are Europeans and European politicians who take the risk of a Russian attack on NATO very serious. Amongst them the three small Baltic states, Poland, probably also Finland, Sweden. The so-called front states, so to speak. And I think their arguments and reasons are convincing. Putin calls the collapse of the USSR the "biggest desaster in moden history" (his words), and since twenty years he never has hidden that he wants to re-establish the borders and the order of political spheres of influence as they were in the cold war. Many did not believe he would attack Ukraine. He did. He has committed acts or terrorist mass murder against his own people to stage excuses to reattack Chechnya, and attack Georgia.

Be careful to assume Russia would not attack again in the future. Their military production is bigger than the whole military production of all Europe. Europe is not closing the gap - Europe falls more and more behind.

More European states need nuclear weapons. Poland. Finland, Germany, Italy. It must be individual states, not the EU - too many cooks spoil the soup. Europeans must aim at becoming the dominant actor in NATO, not the US, to take over the role of the US in NATO. That is a long term project, but it makes no sense to assume when we were unwilling or unable to finance NATO as it is now, then we would be able to bring up the money for parrallel double military structures in form of an EU army additional to NATO where leaders from 30 countries would share command. There is a military structure. Its NATO. The problem is that Europe let America dominate in it. This must change, and dramatically, and tisi cannot be done by endless talking and political claim to power, but by drastically increase European military ability and weight in NATO. DRASTICALLY. In principle, Europe must in the long term take over NATO and by that making US membership optional, but not decisive anymore.

I doubt they will do it. I see both a lack of ability and a lack of willingness.

[Jimbuna]

Ceasefire and long-term peace agreement will not be remarkable success, - Kellogg on war in Ukraine

The United States does not intend to repeat the mistakes made during the Minsk negotiation process.

This was stated by Trump's special representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, at the Munich Security Conference, Censor.NET reports citing RBC-Ukraine.

He explained that the problem with Minsk-2 was that many people who were at the negotiating table did not have the opportunity to join the peace process.

"I am honestly telling you what will happen. We looked at the problem of Minsk-2. There were a lot of people at the table and they had no opportunity to join the peace process - it was not successful. We will not repeat Minsk," Kellogg said.

He emphasized that the new agreement will not be "Minsk-2". According to Kellogg, the definition of success will be when the ceasefire is violated for the first time and how all parties react.

"We need to make sure that Ukraine's security is about achieving the right goals. It will not be Minsk-2. It will be a stable long-term peace, an environment we can work with. A ceasefire and a long-term peace agreement will not be a remarkable success. The definition of success will be the first time the ceasefire is violated and how all sides respond," said Trump's special envoy. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3535992

[Jimbuna]

I will not take issue of Ukraine’s membership in NATO off table - Zelenskyy

Ukraine will never give up its membership in NATO.

This was stated today during a speech at the Munich Security Conference by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Censor.NET reports.

"I don't believe in security guarantees without America. It will be weak. America will not provide guarantees if European guarantees are not strong. I will also not take Ukraine's membership in NATO off the table," he stressed.

However, according to Zelenskyy, Putin's whims have the power to block NATO's decision.

"Our people and our army are stopping Putin. Putin lost 250,000 soldiers, more than 600,000 were wounded. We have completely destroyed the North Korean troops that Putin sent to the Kursk region. And for 6 months now, we have been staying on the territory of the Russian Federation, even though it was the Russian Federation that wanted to create a buffer zone," he added.

He also asked European leaders whether their armies would be able to fight in the same way in the event of a Russian attack. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3535962

Trump: Vance’s speech in Munich was great

The speech by US Vice President J.D. Vance at the Munich Security Conference was excellent.

This opinion was expressed by US President Donald Trump in an interview with CNN, Censor.NET reports citing UP.

Speaking about Vance's speech in Munich, Trump said he thought it was "excellent."

He is also convinced that the US Vice President's words were "well received."

"And I think it's true that Europe is losing its wonderful right to free speech," Trump said.

He later added that Europe "has to be careful" and said that the continent "has a big immigration problem."

In his speech at the Munich conference, Vance focused on criticizing European partners.

In particular, Vance said that the biggest concern of the Trump administration regarding the security situation in Europe is not external enemies, but the situation with democracy in the EU. Europe must step up to ensure its own defense.

As reported, Vance said that journalists "twisted" his words about the possibility of sending US troops to Ukraine. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3535990

[Skybird]

Fact is nobody can demand membership in NATO. You can only ask for it, and then accept the answer, a Yes or a No. NATO states have no legal or moral obligation at all to let in everybody who asks. They must not even give reasons for their decision.

Just saying.

[mapuc]

Skybird wrote
'Be careful to assume Russia would not attack again in the future. Their military production is bigger than the whole military production of all Europe.'

Some thoughts on this-If a peace treaty is made, would Russia have to keep on producing military equipment after such a deal ?

I could see a certain decrease in their production to fill up what they have lost in the war.

Could also be so that the production is being kept on a high rate even after the war are over.

Markus

[Dargo]

If Russia would stop war production their economy is done in months, they have no other option. But there will be no peace with Russia, Russia does not want peace they want to go back to Yalta February 1945. Russia has never honoured any treaty in his history when it was not enforced up on them by force. And on all this defeatism on Europe production the defeatist forget Europe is rich enough to buy production in other countries, a win-win for Trump.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Skybird wrote
'Be careful to assume Russia would not attack again in the future. Their military production is bigger than the whole military production of all Europe.'

Some thoughts on this-If a peace treaty is made, would Russia have to keep on producing military equipment after such a deal ?

I could see a certain decrease in their production to fill up what they have lost in the war.

Could also be so that the production is being kept on a high rate even after the war are over.

Markus

For once I agree with Dargo, their economy is war economy now and depends on war production to not collapse. In other words, its running hot. But I think after a ceize fire that gives them time to breath again and maybe even Trump lifting some sanctions (mind you, he already said he thinks they would like to come back into the G9 again, that was a clear hint what he, Trump wants...), they can - and will! - continue with war production, just with greater ease then. Means from a European perspective: things will become even worse.

[Catfish]

Imho Trump paves the path to war with his foreign policies. Regarding Putin's plans, Poland and the baltic states will be next, in 5-10 years.
Appeasement will not work.
Europe has to do it itself, question is whether they will be able to in this short time.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

For once I agree with Dargo, their economy is war economy now and depends on war production to not collapse. In other words, its running hot. But I think after a ceize fire that gives them time to breath again and maybe even Trump lifting some sanctions (mind you, he already said he thinks they would like to come back into the G9 again, that was a clear hint what he, Trump wants...), they can - and will! - continue with war production, just with greater ease then. Means from a European perspective: things will become even worse.

I am not certain Trump will lift any sanction on oil, natural gas and related it would shoot itself in the foot the US has on the moment increase export of their LNG to Europe for 3 years do not think he will want to lose that export.

[Dargo]

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Skybird wrote
'Be careful to assume Russia would not attack again in the future. Their military production is bigger than the whole military production of all Europe.'

Some thoughts on this-If a peace treaty is made, would Russia have to keep on producing military equipment after such a deal ?

In our reasoning: no. In their reasoning: yes. Whose reasoning is what decides this: ours - or theirs?

I could see a certain decrease in their production to fill up what they have lost in the war.

Could also be so that the production is being kept on a high rate even after the war are over.

Putin sees Russia at war with the West. All the West and all of NATO is hanging at Russia's throat, so his narrative. Russia is the victim of the West, the West is the attacker, so the narrative. Russia defended itself when invading Ukraine, so his narrative. Russia must reclaim what Putin thinks is its glory and fame that got lost by the betrayal of Gorbachev.

[Skybird]

[Die Welt] According to its Ukraine representative Keith Kellogg, the USA does not want to see any European representatives at the negotiating table during talks on peace in Ukraine. At the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, when asked whether he could confirm to the audience that Ukrainians and Europeans would be at the table during talks, Kellogg said: "The answer to this last question (regarding the Europeans), as you have formulated it, is no." However, the Ukrainians would "of course" be at the table, he said.


The administration of the new US President Donald Trump has recently given mixed signals about its planned approach in connection with the desired end to the war between Russia and Ukraine.
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How shocking!

[mapuc]

Is Europe needed at the table ? It take two to dance and not three.

Markus