Hamas launches war on Israel

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Catfish

A leader should know what to demand, just like a good captain. You should never demand anything when you know there will be no obeying.

True that

[Dargo]

The uprising in Syria against dictator Assad's government is spreading. Meanwhile, militant groups in the south and east of the country have also taken up arms. The Syrian army appears to be offering little resistance. In the northwest, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebels took at least two towns near Homs today: Rastan and Talbiseh. According to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, this Islamist militant group is just five kilometers from Homs. Verified images confirm this.

In the south, insurgents have taken over the town of Daraa and towns in the surrounding area. Images show them raising the flag of free Syria. An army base was attacked near the city. The rebels control the entrance gate. It is unclear whether the army has also been defeated there. Jordan has closed its border crossing with Syria near the town of Nassib. A source in the Syrian army says rebels have shelled army checkpoints there. Men can be seen online storming checkpoints near the border post.

In the east, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have taken full control of Deir el-Zor, a city on the Euphrates. The SDF is a coalition of the Kurdish YPG and Arab militias. The group has the backing of the United States. The city reportedly fell into the hands of the SDF without a fight. The foreign ministers of Syria, Iran and Iraq met in Baghdad today for consultations. Syrian minister Sabbagh said the developments were a serious threat to the stability of the entire region. Whether the three have reached concrete agreements is not known. According to an Iraqi security source, the SDF is also advancing towards the Syrian town of Albukamal, on the border with Iraq.

The capture of Homs is an important strategic move for the rebels. Upon capture, the capital Damascus will be cut off from the coast, where Assad's Russian allies have a naval and air force base. The HTS' ultimate goal of toppling President Assad is getting closer. Meanwhile, thousands of Syrians have fled the city to escape the approaching violence of war. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Syrian government forces have now withdrawn from Homs. Director Rami Abdel Rahane states that Syrian soldiers have now retreated to the suburbs. The Syrian defense ministry denies this. Syrian rebel commander Hassan Abdul Ghany has called on the Syrian army's top military officers to defect to the rebel side, according to Reuters news agency. He did so in a video statement broadcast on Friday.

The regime is faltering, but it is not yet falling. In the more than 50 years that the Assad family now rules Syria, predictions that they would fall have never come true. Even in the early days of the 2011 uprising, Assad's fall seemed imminent, but the regime struck back hard with Iranian and Russian help. Yet, for several reasons, Assad is in even worse shape this time around than he was then. For instance, morale in the regime army is low and there is also great discontent among Assad's traditional supporters. Look, for instance, at the Alawites, the minority from which the regime itself stems. When the uprising broke out in 2011, they went to war en masse to defend Assad, but this time tens of thousands of them are fleeing from Homs towards the Alawite coastal areas. That region appears to be keeping away from the battleground for now, and there are reports that the regime is struggling to recruit even here. Assad therefore has little to offer. The regime runs on a war economy full of drug trafficking and extortion. Government services are virtually non-existent. And this is precisely where the rebels offer an alternative: HTS Islamists managed to establish a relatively functional government in Idlib. His allies also see this. Russia and Iran rescued Assad before, but are now annoyed by his stubbornness and incompetence. In the Assads' family dynasty, there are no real alternatives, people who can change course or sit down with the rebels. A successful palace coup or truce with the rebels thus seems unlikely. Assad will fight, flee or fall. What it will depend above all on his foreign allies.

From rebel-held areas, there are many images of popular relief. Political prisoners are freed, statues of the Assad family are toppled, people take to the streets cheering. But they are cheering primarily for the departure of the hated regime - not for the arrival of HTS. The difference between the reactions in Aleppo and Hama was striking. In the latter, conservative Sunni city, people were dancing in the streets after the Islamist rebels' arrival. In Aleppo, people reacted more cautiously. That city then also has more minorities, such as Kurds and Christians, who are more hesitant about what an HTS regime could mean for them. HTS is trying to allay fears. Their leader Abu Mohammed Jolani appeared in front of the Aleppo citadel on Wednesday and indicated that Christians need not fear. After taking Hama, he made yet another appeal to his fighters not to retaliate against regime supporters. And in the city of Salamiyah, HTS entered talks with the Ismaelite minority (a current within Shiism) to negotiate the departure of regime forces. These signals are important, but they are also part of a charm offensive. It is far too early to judge whether Jolani will put his statements into practice. Moreover, the question is to what extent he can keep his troops in line: after all, many rebels are fighting a regime that has killed or expelled their own family members in recent years.

This Saturday, Turkey, Russia and Iran will meet in the Qatari capital Doha. These are the most active players in Syria, and they are all now trying to strengthen their negotiating position before Donald Trump enters the White House in January. For now, Turkey benefits from the rebel offensive. On the one hand, the expulsion of Assad may eventually create space for the return of refugees. On the other hand, Ankara-led SNA rebels already managed to capture territory north of Aleppo from YPG Kurdish militants. A limited offensive in which these gains are cashed in is more in Ankara's interest than an all-or-nothing battle all the way to Damascus. But the Turks do not have nearly as much influence on HTS as they do on the SNA. If Jolani decides to lay siege to the capital, it is highly questionable whether Ankara can rein him in. Tehran on Friday announced it would send more drones, missiles and military advisers to Syria, but Iran's options are limited. Too far-reaching military intervention is asking for blows from incoming President Trump. Moreover, Hezbollah has been weakened by Israel, and it remains to be seen to what extent pro-Iranian militias in Iraq will join the fight. Some factions have been doing this for years, and they will want to help Assad, but the Iraqi government is not waiting for a large-scale mobilization that could pull Iraq into a new war.

In an interview with CNN on Thursday, Jolani said HTS is only a means to overthrow Assad. Once that job is done, HTS can disband ‘any time’ to make way for civilian governance, Jolani said. Exactly what that administration will look like, or what the place of Islamic law in it will be, was left open. Jolani called only for strong institutions and ‘a legal framework that protects the rights of all’. It is hard to imagine that the power-hungry Jolani would step aside after any regime fall. Yet, HTS has already proved in Idlib that it can set up a government that has some autonomy and delivers relatively effective governance. But in a homogeneous and conservative province like Idlib, this is a lot easier for HTS than in a diverse country like Syria.

Syria's ruling army has faced not only a complete breakdown in command, but also a severe shortage of manpower caused by internal reforms, corruption and desertion. Many commanders and officers in the combat zone were missing when the rebels opened the attack in Aleppo. The reformed army, on the advice of ally Russia, is Russian-based. Because Russian doctrine requires military leadership to be behind the lines, units in Aleppo had to make their own decisions as their battalions and brigade commanders were missing. Some units fought, others withdrew. He also noted that the army has been plagued by desertions for years. In the past week, too, there were reports of soldiers deserting and returning home. There were also arrests of commanders, leaving units adrift and morale falling. On Sunday, for instance, a commander in Hama was arrested for withdrawing his brigade from an area without permission. Rebels then quickly took it. Another major reason for the government army's impotence is the loss of a good deal of support from Hezbollah, Iran and even Russia. As a result, the army has to fend for itself. 'This has led to units, which for years received close Russian command support, suddenly being forced to carry out a defense operation entirely on their own. The US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) points to another reason for the meteoric advance of the rebels, who on paper are not as numerous as the army: entire villages appear to be surrendering, after negotiations with the rebels, after which the fighters can advance further without fighting. At least three Christian and Shia villages did this near Hama in recent days. The ISW then predicted on Thursday that rebels would be at Homs by Friday.

[mapuc]

Is Israel committing genocide on the Palestinian people?
Some claim they are doing this in their war against Hamas.
While others say they are waging a war of survival against Hamas and Hezbollah

If you follow the definition made by UN on genocide it is doubtful whether Israel is committing genocide.

https://www.un.org/en/genocide-prevention/definition

[Skybird]

It looks as if the Syrian army is completely falling apart, collapsing. This could indeed be the end of the Assad regime. I am not yet fully convinced, but it could be. The rebels are almost blitzing across Syria. Homs is their next target. And then Damascus is left. Desertation in the Syrian army is reported to be high, and growing.

The good in that? The Russian naval base may come in doubt, too.


Hezbollah, Iran, Russia all are distracted.

[Catfish]

Why exactly did Russia start a war against Ukraine?
Because of Putin.

[Jimbuna]

Israel eliminates chief of Hamas' aerial unit behind October 7 attack

The IDF eliminated the head of Hamas' aerial unit in Gaza City. He was one of the organizers of the aerial invasion of Israeli territory on October 7, 2023, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

According to the report, as a result of a joint precision operation by Israeli forces, terrorist Nidal Al-Najar, head of Hamas' aerial unit in Gaza and the leader of its air defense unit, was killed on December 3, 2024.

Al-Najar was one of the organizers of the air assault on Israeli territory on October 7, 2023.

Additionally, during the ongoing large-scale war, the terrorists played a key role in coordinating attacks against Israel and IDF forces operating in central Gaza, including using explosive drones and UAVs targeting Israeli troops.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...5e2278b7&ei=14

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Is Israel committing genocide on the Palestinian people?
Some claim they are doing this in their war against Hamas.
While others say they are waging a war of survival against Hamas and Hezbollah

If you follow the definition made by UN on genocide it is doubtful whether Israel is committing genocide.

https://www.un.org/en/genocide-prevention/definition

Israeli forces stormed Kamal Adwan hospital in Beit Lahia in northern Gaza last night. The hospital staff, patients and displaced Palestinians who had taken refuge there were all forced out. Most were later allowed to return, but some were turned away by the military. Before the raid, there were airstrikes and heavy shelling on and around the hospital. Abu Safiya claims hundreds were killed and wounded. This cannot be verified: independent observers and aid workers do not enter the area, which has been under siege by Israeli forces since early October, if at all. Indeed, images show many bodies.

If this is not a war crime or genocide, I do not understand.

[Skybird]

[Neue Zürcher Zeitung] If the central Syrian city [Homs] falls, this could herald the end of the Asad regime. This is because Homs is located on a strategically important highway that connects Damascus with the Mediterranean coast and Asad's Alawite homeland. If the city is lost, the rebels will have a clear path to Damascus. The Damascus ruler's troops should therefore be preparing to advance by now at the latest.

However, there is little to suggest that the Syrian army will succeed. The demoralized, hollowed-out troops seem either unable or unwilling to oppose the onslaught of the rebel forces supported by Turkey and led by the Islamist organization HTS. Even a Russian airstrike on an important bridge halfway from Hama to Homs was unable to stop the rebels.

But Asad is facing further disaster: inspired by the success of the rebels in the north, opponents of the regime are now also rising up in the south of the country. Within a very short space of time, they attacked police and military positions in Daraa and Suweida and allegedly took control of Syria's border crossing to Jordan. In the east, Asad's troops also cleared the city of Deir al-Zur. As a result, the noose around Damascus is tightening ever tighter.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

[Neue Zürcher Zeitung] If the central Syrian city [Homs] falls, this could herald the end of the Asad regime. This is because Homs is located on a strategically important highway that connects Damascus with the Mediterranean coast and Asad's Alawite homeland. If the city is lost, the rebels will have a clear path to Damascus. The Damascus ruler's troops should therefore be preparing to advance by now at the latest.

However, there is little to suggest that the Syrian army will succeed. The demoralized, hollowed-out troops seem either unable or unwilling to oppose the onslaught of the rebel forces supported by Turkey and led by the Islamist organization HTS. Even a Russian airstrike on an important bridge halfway from Hama to Homs was unable to stop the rebels.

But Asad is facing further disaster: inspired by the success of the rebels in the north, opponents of the regime are now also rising up in the south of the country. Within a very short space of time, they attacked police and military positions in Daraa and Suweida and allegedly took control of Syria's border crossing to Jordan. In the east, Asad's troops also cleared the city of Deir al-Zur. As a result, the noose around Damascus is tightening ever tighter.

Reports in Syrian opposition channels indicate a decision to carry out a special military operation from several axes to enter Syria's capital. Shyt is about to hit the fan I didn't expect the battle for Damascus until several weeks. A special military operation the russians could only dream about. I do not see any and this is literally any friend helping Assad yeah they talk today but... that will be all. With HTS making buddy buddy with Putin and Iran retreating, it will be a lonely Christmas for Assad if he even makes it.

[Dargo]

Less than 30 km remain to Damascus rebels from the south entered the cities of Ghabaghib and Kanakir, and Syrian troops of the Assadi regime are retreating from Zakiyah, located 20 km from the capital. Homs stands out as the geographic, economic, and military heart of Syria. If the rebels gain control of Homs, it could pave the way for a rapid advance toward Damascus joining the forces from the South, making the city's fate a critical factor in the coming days. Note they do not have to take Damascus, a siege will be enough to let the city surrender. According to Russian war bloggers, Syrian government forces are retreating without fighting.

Originally Posted by Syrian opposition commander Hassan Abdulghani

Our forces have entered the city of Sanamin, north of Daraa, and declared it liberated, bringing us within 20 km of the southern gate of Damascus.

Saga how Assad is losing control of Syria when 95.19% of Syrians voted for him in the election!! Lavrov and his Iranian counterpart meeting in Iran right now in order to discuss the future of Syria while Damascus and Homs are getting liberated is Epic. Ukraine, Syria, Abkhazia, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, Romania. The Russian master plan to resurrect the empire is falling apart in front of our eyes. Assad asked Turkey to intervene in what was happening, asked for weapons from Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Iraq, but was refused. Lavrov dismisses media claims of Russia allegedly withdrawing ships from its Tartus base in Syria, clarifying that "naval exercises are actively underway in the Mediterranean Sea". Must be a regrouping. Allegedly, Syrian Army soldiers at the Lebanese-Syrian border are abandoning their posts and flee to Lebanon. Russian forces leaving the Hmeimim base in Latakia and evacuating their S-300 and Tor-M1 air defense systems to the port of Tartous.

"We could see the end of Assad's rule in Syria in the coming hours," a senior US official told Reuters.

Syrian army positions in rural Damascus are falling apart, one by one. It is going fast. Currently, fighting is raging around Homs, the second most important city after Damascus where President Assad is still in power. The Syrian army is carrying out airstrikes there. This morning, it became clear that Assad's forces have moved out of much of southern Syria to reinforce positions around Homs. This has left the provinces of Daraa and Sweida under rebel control. The authorities of Egypt and Jordan urged Assad to also leave the country and form a government-in-exile. Jordan strongly denies this. The Syrian army is reportedly retreating in the region around the capital Damascus. So says the NGO Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the organisation that monitors Syria's civil war through an informant network. Government forces have withdrawn to Artoz and are thus some 10 kilometres from the capital, it sounds.

According to the NGO, rebels are surrounding several villages in the Damascus area. They also reportedly want to free prisoners from a military prison near the capital. The rebels advancing from the south say themselves that they have begun the encirclement of the capital. They refer to the ‘final phase’ of the encirclement, according to rebel commander Hassan Abdel Ghani. The latter had earlier addressed followers of the various religious strands via messaging service Telegram, assuring that everyone can have confidence in it and should support the uprising. ‘The era of sectarianism and tyranny is over forever,’ he said. The Syrian army denies and says troops ‘present in all zones of rural Damascus’ are not withdrawing. The area in question is Rif Dimashq province. Further north, fighting is taking place near Homs, according to the Observatory. Large reinforcements for government forces are reported, which would halt the rebels' advance there. Russian and Syrian air and artillery attacks killed seven civilians near Homs, the NGO said.

Iraqi authorities have allowed hundreds of Syrian army soldiers to cross the border. They were fleeing fighting with rebels, the French news agency AFP heard from sources in Iraq's security services. The soldiers included wounded people. The Syrian regime's soldiers ‘fled the fighting’ and arrived in Iraq via Al-Qaïm border crossing, a senior security official told AFP. The latter added that wounded people were taken to hospital from the border town in western Iraq. A second security source speaks of nearly 2,000 troops, ‘officers and soldiers’ who crossed the border with Baghdad's permission. The border crossing is on the banks of the Euphrates, amid the large desert area in northern Syria. As the crow flies, the border crossing is some 130 kilometres south of the town of Deir Ezzor.

[Skybird]

Rebels troops reported to stand in Homs. Syrian army pulls out of the southern territories, without fighting.

I think thats it. Its as good as over. The past 48 hours went much faster than I expected. 5x acceleration or so. Damascus is just a question of time, I now think. No soldier is willing to risk his life for Assad anymore.

[Catfish]

Never thought I would see this to happen. It is not over though yet with Assad, and Russia still has its interests.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...le-2024-12-07/

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Never thought I would see this to happen. It is not over though yet with Assad, and Russia still has its interests.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...le-2024-12-07/

After this weekend Assad is over Russia already made a deal with turkey that his forces HTS ASN will not attack Russian forces if they stay out of this rebellion. Turkey probable also made a deal that Russia can keep their bases in Syria. Rebels have reached the outskirts of Damascus, AP and AFP news agencies report. This makes the situation for the Syrian army increasingly dire. The SDF also in contact with the Russians Russian military convoy was escorted from the city of Deir ez-zor under the protection of the SDF towards Qamişlo city

With Assad gone, this is not over in Syria:
North and East SyriaÂ’s Manbij canton, in the north-east of the Aleppo region, is currently facing the thr

[Jimbuna]

@Dargo

Anything in excess of two consecutive posts trips the filter. Far better to add additional text etc. via the Edit function.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Never thought I would see this to happen. It is not over though yet with Assad, and Russia still has its interests.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...le-2024-12-07/

If and when Assad is gone they'll probably start fighting each other.