Hamas launches war on Israel

[mapuc]

Been wondering. Didn't we have a Syria thread ?
Seem to recall it.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Been wondering. Didn't we have a Syria thread ?
Seem to recall it.

Markus

Do not know, but it is all related to the geo politic is all connected with October 7, 2023, all with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Been wondering. Didn't we have a Syria thread ?
Seem to recall it.

Markus

The last post in the latest Syria thread was Nov 2022 so we may as well do as Dargo suggests and carry on.

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

MAP UPDATE: The situation in Syria as of 05/12/2024.

Homs also connects Damascus to the western heartland of the Alevis, the Muslim minority to which Assad belongs. For all these reasons, Homs will be hard-fought. It seems that Hama has been given up relatively easily by the government army to better protect Homs. If Iran can deliver substantially more reinforcements to ally Assad. The regime in Tehran has every interest in keeping the Syrian president in power. For example, to enable land supplies from Iran to Lebanon, where the pro-Iranian movement Hezbollah has been weakened by the war with Israel. But the advance is not without risks. On the one hand, just south of Hama, the regime still has the so-called ‘Tiger troops’, an elite unit of the Syrian army that is more loyal and better armed than divisions made up of conscripts. On the other hand, the rebels are at risk from their own success: if they spread their forces over too large an area, they become vulnerable to counterattacks in places they have already captured. The latter risk is now in play east of Aleppo, where the SDF's predominantly Kurdish militants are approaching a rebel-held military airfield. That air base is on a major access road to Aleppo.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

A leader should know what to demand, just like a good captain. You should never demand anything when you know there will be no obeying.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Catfish

A leader should know what to demand, just like a good captain. You should never demand anything when you know there will be no obeying.

True that

[Dargo]

The uprising in Syria against dictator Assad's government is spreading. Meanwhile, militant groups in the south and east of the country have also taken up arms. The Syrian army appears to be offering little resistance. In the northwest, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebels took at least two towns near Homs today: Rastan and Talbiseh. According to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, this Islamist militant group is just five kilometers from Homs. Verified images confirm this.

In the south, insurgents have taken over the town of Daraa and towns in the surrounding area. Images show them raising the flag of free Syria. An army base was attacked near the city. The rebels control the entrance gate. It is unclear whether the army has also been defeated there. Jordan has closed its border crossing with Syria near the town of Nassib. A source in the Syrian army says rebels have shelled army checkpoints there. Men can be seen online storming checkpoints near the border post.

In the east, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have taken full control of Deir el-Zor, a city on the Euphrates. The SDF is a coalition of the Kurdish YPG and Arab militias. The group has the backing of the United States. The city reportedly fell into the hands of the SDF without a fight. The foreign ministers of Syria, Iran and Iraq met in Baghdad today for consultations. Syrian minister Sabbagh said the developments were a serious threat to the stability of the entire region. Whether the three have reached concrete agreements is not known. According to an Iraqi security source, the SDF is also advancing towards the Syrian town of Albukamal, on the border with Iraq.

The capture of Homs is an important strategic move for the rebels. Upon capture, the capital Damascus will be cut off from the coast, where Assad's Russian allies have a naval and air force base. The HTS' ultimate goal of toppling President Assad is getting closer. Meanwhile, thousands of Syrians have fled the city to escape the approaching violence of war. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Syrian government forces have now withdrawn from Homs. Director Rami Abdel Rahane states that Syrian soldiers have now retreated to the suburbs. The Syrian defense ministry denies this. Syrian rebel commander Hassan Abdul Ghany has called on the Syrian army's top military officers to defect to the rebel side, according to Reuters news agency. He did so in a video statement broadcast on Friday.

The regime is faltering, but it is not yet falling. In the more than 50 years that the Assad family now rules Syria, predictions that they would fall have never come true. Even in the early days of the 2011 uprising, Assad's fall seemed imminent, but the regime struck back hard with Iranian and Russian help. Yet, for several reasons, Assad is in even worse shape this time around than he was then. For instance, morale in the regime army is low and there is also great discontent among Assad's traditional supporters. Look, for instance, at the Alawites, the minority from which the regime itself stems. When the uprising broke out in 2011, they went to war en masse to defend Assad, but this time tens of thousands of them are fleeing from Homs towards the Alawite coastal areas. That region appears to be keeping away from the battleground for now, and there are reports that the regime is struggling to recruit even here. Assad therefore has little to offer. The regime runs on a war economy full of drug trafficking and extortion. Government services are virtually non-existent. And this is precisely where the rebels offer an alternative: HTS Islamists managed to establish a relatively functional government in Idlib. His allies also see this. Russia and Iran rescued Assad before, but are now annoyed by his stubbornness and incompetence. In the Assads' family dynasty, there are no real alternatives, people who can change course or sit down with the rebels. A successful palace coup or truce with the rebels thus seems unlikely. Assad will fight, flee or fall. What it will depend above all on his foreign allies.

From rebel-held areas, there are many images of popular relief. Political prisoners are freed, statues of the Assad family are toppled, people take to the streets cheering. But they are cheering primarily for the departure of the hated regime - not for the arrival of HTS. The difference between the reactions in Aleppo and Hama was striking. In the latter, conservative Sunni city, people were dancing in the streets after the Islamist rebels' arrival. In Aleppo, people reacted more cautiously. That city then also has more minorities, such as Kurds and Christians, who are more hesitant about what an HTS regime could mean for them. HTS is trying to allay fears. Their leader Abu Mohammed Jolani appeared in front of the Aleppo citadel on Wednesday and indicated that Christians need not fear. After taking Hama, he made yet another appeal to his fighters not to retaliate against regime supporters. And in the city of Salamiyah, HTS entered talks with the Ismaelite minority (a current within Shiism) to negotiate the departure of regime forces. These signals are important, but they are also part of a charm offensive. It is far too early to judge whether Jolani will put his statements into practice. Moreover, the question is to what extent he can keep his troops in line: after all, many rebels are fighting a regime that has killed or expelled their own family members in recent years.

This Saturday, Turkey, Russia and Iran will meet in the Qatari capital Doha. These are the most active players in Syria, and they are all now trying to strengthen their negotiating position before Donald Trump enters the White House in January. For now, Turkey benefits from the rebel offensive. On the one hand, the expulsion of Assad may eventually create space for the return of refugees. On the other hand, Ankara-led SNA rebels already managed to capture territory north of Aleppo from YPG Kurdish militants. A limited offensive in which these gains are cashed in is more in Ankara's interest than an all-or-nothing battle all the way to Damascus. But the Turks do not have nearly as much influence on HTS as they do on the SNA. If Jolani decides to lay siege to the capital, it is highly questionable whether Ankara can rein him in. Tehran on Friday announced it would send more drones, missiles and military advisers to Syria, but Iran's options are limited. Too far-reaching military intervention is asking for blows from incoming President Trump. Moreover, Hezbollah has been weakened by Israel, and it remains to be seen to what extent pro-Iranian militias in Iraq will join the fight. Some factions have been doing this for years, and they will want to help Assad, but the Iraqi government is not waiting for a large-scale mobilization that could pull Iraq into a new war.

In an interview with CNN on Thursday, Jolani said HTS is only a means to overthrow Assad. Once that job is done, HTS can disband ‘any time’ to make way for civilian governance, Jolani said. Exactly what that administration will look like, or what the place of Islamic law in it will be, was left open. Jolani called only for strong institutions and ‘a legal framework that protects the rights of all’. It is hard to imagine that the power-hungry Jolani would step aside after any regime fall. Yet, HTS has already proved in Idlib that it can set up a government that has some autonomy and delivers relatively effective governance. But in a homogeneous and conservative province like Idlib, this is a lot easier for HTS than in a diverse country like Syria.

Syria's ruling army has faced not only a complete breakdown in command, but also a severe shortage of manpower caused by internal reforms, corruption and desertion. Many commanders and officers in the combat zone were missing when the rebels opened the attack in Aleppo. The reformed army, on the advice of ally Russia, is Russian-based. Because Russian doctrine requires military leadership to be behind the lines, units in Aleppo had to make their own decisions as their battalions and brigade commanders were missing. Some units fought, others withdrew. He also noted that the army has been plagued by desertions for years. In the past week, too, there were reports of soldiers deserting and returning home. There were also arrests of commanders, leaving units adrift and morale falling. On Sunday, for instance, a commander in Hama was arrested for withdrawing his brigade from an area without permission. Rebels then quickly took it. Another major reason for the government army's impotence is the loss of a good deal of support from Hezbollah, Iran and even Russia. As a result, the army has to fend for itself. 'This has led to units, which for years received close Russian command support, suddenly being forced to carry out a defense operation entirely on their own. The US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) points to another reason for the meteoric advance of the rebels, who on paper are not as numerous as the army: entire villages appear to be surrendering, after negotiations with the rebels, after which the fighters can advance further without fighting. At least three Christian and Shia villages did this near Hama in recent days. The ISW then predicted on Thursday that rebels would be at Homs by Friday.

[mapuc]

Is Israel committing genocide on the Palestinian people?
Some claim they are doing this in their war against Hamas.
While others say they are waging a war of survival against Hamas and Hezbollah

If you follow the definition made by UN on genocide it is doubtful whether Israel is committing genocide.

https://www.un.org/en/genocide-prevention/definition