1 US carrier and 18 US combatants sunk in 10 minutes

[Kapitan]

These exercises most not as complex are done fairly regularly in many cases we would wince at the results.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Otto Harkaman

No I disagree there needs to be a moral purpose here and the populace will be more involved with a good air force opposed to a missile only arsenal that might as well be manned by robots. Yes a good missile and air defense but the flexibility of a good air force is unbeatable.

Taiwan is not able to maintain a signficantly sized air force that could hope not to be numerically overwhelmed by China, and if they send high tech planes in lower numbers, its against the odds once again. Also, China can and will bombard the island's installations and bases into oblivion, it has the number of missiles to do so, and an ever growing navy. Military reserves that are not stored unconventionally and hidden from the enemy will have little to no chance to survive the first days.

Taiwan needs to be able to fight off an amphibious assault on the beaches, in the straits. Its a safe bet that China will seal off the straits on the sea and in the air when it starts its assault. Any ships, planes or submarines penetrating it most likely will not survive long. China most likely will manage to land somewhere, and then has the terrain against it. Taiwanese fighters then fighting back depend on weapon stores - with ATGMs and SAM - bein scattered in huge number across the island, wherever they might need to go. Air bases are just targets. I would give them almost nil chance. Taiwan is small. China has the ability to surround it from all sides and bombard it from all sides. Its not the Ukraine. And as the war games showed the US is unlikely to break blockades after a brief starting time. Then nothing will get in in supplies.


Reduce Chinese numbers while they are in transit in the strait. Bog the remains down as long as possible at the beaches. Wear them down inside the island if Chinese forces manages to break out of the beachheads. Do not expect to get relief and supplies from outside for a long time to come, China will likely be able to prevent that.

Missiles, drones, ammo. Before anything else. One would imagine: submarines, but again, submarines need bases, so - dont waste money there. Spend it on missiles, drones, ammo. They need to keep Chinese air force and naval power at bay. They do not need to run head-on confrontations on a one-on-one basis. They m ust not run out of ammo. Losses in their supplies due to Chinese fire will be immense. Taiwan needs to be able to compensate for that with even bigger reserves.

This is an old conflict in their military, the one - the conservative - camp saying like you: we need an impressive navy and a capable air force, the other camp - more unconventional - says what I say, too. If Trump wants deals on missiles, drones and ammo, okay, I'm fine, let him sell antiship and antiair and antitank missiles aplenty and let US economy make profts with it. If he insists on Taiwan wasting time and money on ships and tanks and airplanes becasue sdellign prices are higher, then this is counter-productive for the security of Taiwan.

[Dargo]

Taiwan's spending on defense has increased around 80 percent in the past eight years, Taipei allocated a record $19 billion for 2024 and next year's budget is set to hit a new high, as it seeks to bolster a more agile defense approach. Taiwan is waiting on an order of 66 new F-16V fighter jets that are expected to begin to arrive before the end of the year.

[Skybird]

One such F-16 equals the costs of 20-40 Harpoons, depending on the version of the F-16 bought. And there are cheaper anti-ship missiles available. The French Exocet of the last two blocks for exmapel cost seven times less than a Harpoon. The latest block of the Exocet has a range of 200 km and thus can cover the strait of taiwan whcih is around 150 km wide.


Keep the F-16s. Give me equivalent financial value in Exocets and Harpoons. That would be HUNDREDS of anti-ship missiles.

[Jimbuna]

Add to that a large number of air defence missiles to counter the missile offensive that would surely come.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Add to that a large number of air defence missiles to counter the missile offensive that would surely come.

Yes, sure, absolutely my argument.
But the primary objective of course is denying China safe passage across the strait.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Yes, sure, absolutely my argument.
But the primary objective of course is denying China safe passage across the strait.

I doubt that would be possible.

[Skybird]

Its enough to raise the costs and turn a holiday voyage into an adventure trip. Ships swim. Sometimes they sink. Just drill or hammer a hole into them, and you'll see.



You need to flood Chinese anti-missile defences, however. Thats why I say Taiwan needs an abundance of missiles.

[Otto Harkaman]

Japan, US to form missile plan in case of Taiwan emergency, Kyodo says

• The U.S. Military will establish temporary missile bases in Japan and the Philippines for a Taiwan contingency, according to sources familiar with Japan-U.S. Relations.
• Japan and the U.S. Are formulating their first joint operation plan for responding to Taiwan and China issues by December.
• The U.S. Army will also position long-range fire units in the Philippines as both nations enhance defense cooperation amid threats from China and North Korea.

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