1 US carrier and 18 US combatants sunk in 10 minutes

[Otto Harkaman]

The most realistic solution seems to arm Taiwan to the teeth so the Chinese hesitate to attack. Other than that is a slow or fast conquest.

Taiwan needs to establish an air force on par with Israel for the threat of a first strike like the 6 Day War.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Otto Harkaman

The most realistic solution seems to arm Taiwan to the teeth so the Chinese hesitate to attack. Other than that is a slow or fast conquest.

Taiwan needs to establish an air force on par with Israel for the threat of a first strike like the 6 Day War.

And make it a member of the Indo-Pacific Partners (IPP).

[Skybird]

Missiles, missiles, missiles.Drones, drones, drones. More of both than China could ever hope to take out. Dont plant trees on Taiwan. Plant missiles instead.

Fighters, ships, tanks, will just get picked up and taken out one by one. China is numerically hopelessly superior, any air force or navy joining the fight will simply get wiped out. Like Russia can afford high losses in Ukraine, China can over Taiwan.

Taiwan uses to build its most modern chip production sites in the imminent vicinity of important military bases. So that any strike at these bears the uncalculated risk to take out these rroduction centres, too, and since Taiwan refuses to build the best of its best chip and wafer production outside Taiwan (they dont do it in Europe and they dont do it in the US, its just older second and third grade stuff they agree to build in overseas), such destruction would hurt everybody: the wiorld, the West, China as well.

However, Xi has made it a priority to become able to replace this top technology from Taiwan as well, with Chinese production. And sooner or later China will be abkle to do it, its just a quesiton of time. Then the best protection maybe that Taiwan has, is neutralized, the silicon defensive shield will no more be. And then things become interesting at the latest.

Taiwan would be insane to put trust in internaitonbal diplomatic mumbo jumbo. The last candidate doing that, were Ukraine, and before Honkong. Both pay for their naivety.

After Putin's attack on Ukraine, nothing should surprise us anymore. Possible that Xi attacks just for reason of some historic jubilee, absolutely imaginable. He is the most powerful Chinese leader since many centuries, and works on establishing a family dynasty, a new emperor house. Such scope of goals and timeplans is beyond what Western politics usually can grasp and understand. Especially a Trump who always thinks just in "deals". Xi does not do just "deals". Xi has a meeting with destiny itself. At least that is what he thinks. And what he thinks is what motivates him , not what we want him to tick by.

And with tiem apssing by, with every year and every month, China become sstronger and the US gets weaker and so does the whole West. Or does anyone think the Europeans will play a deciisve role in any war over Taiwan or the South Chinese Sea? Heck, we cant even keep our own house in order and then we play games on the other side of the planet? Dont make me laugh.


Europe is now nothing but a whining club of degenerate old nations, mourning their past empires and Europe's lost former significance. Not even a shadow of its former status, but only the echo of a memory that this shadow was what it ended with.

[Otto Harkaman]

No I disagree there needs to be a moral purpose here and the populace will be more involved with a good air force opposed to a missile only arsenal that might as well be manned by robots. Yes a good missile and air defense but the flexibility of a good air force is unbeatable.

[Kapitan]

These exercises most not as complex are done fairly regularly in many cases we would wince at the results.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Otto Harkaman

No I disagree there needs to be a moral purpose here and the populace will be more involved with a good air force opposed to a missile only arsenal that might as well be manned by robots. Yes a good missile and air defense but the flexibility of a good air force is unbeatable.

Taiwan is not able to maintain a signficantly sized air force that could hope not to be numerically overwhelmed by China, and if they send high tech planes in lower numbers, its against the odds once again. Also, China can and will bombard the island's installations and bases into oblivion, it has the number of missiles to do so, and an ever growing navy. Military reserves that are not stored unconventionally and hidden from the enemy will have little to no chance to survive the first days.

Taiwan needs to be able to fight off an amphibious assault on the beaches, in the straits. Its a safe bet that China will seal off the straits on the sea and in the air when it starts its assault. Any ships, planes or submarines penetrating it most likely will not survive long. China most likely will manage to land somewhere, and then has the terrain against it. Taiwanese fighters then fighting back depend on weapon stores - with ATGMs and SAM - bein scattered in huge number across the island, wherever they might need to go. Air bases are just targets. I would give them almost nil chance. Taiwan is small. China has the ability to surround it from all sides and bombard it from all sides. Its not the Ukraine. And as the war games showed the US is unlikely to break blockades after a brief starting time. Then nothing will get in in supplies.


Reduce Chinese numbers while they are in transit in the strait. Bog the remains down as long as possible at the beaches. Wear them down inside the island if Chinese forces manages to break out of the beachheads. Do not expect to get relief and supplies from outside for a long time to come, China will likely be able to prevent that.

Missiles, drones, ammo. Before anything else. One would imagine: submarines, but again, submarines need bases, so - dont waste money there. Spend it on missiles, drones, ammo. They need to keep Chinese air force and naval power at bay. They do not need to run head-on confrontations on a one-on-one basis. They m ust not run out of ammo. Losses in their supplies due to Chinese fire will be immense. Taiwan needs to be able to compensate for that with even bigger reserves.

This is an old conflict in their military, the one - the conservative - camp saying like you: we need an impressive navy and a capable air force, the other camp - more unconventional - says what I say, too. If Trump wants deals on missiles, drones and ammo, okay, I'm fine, let him sell antiship and antiair and antitank missiles aplenty and let US economy make profts with it. If he insists on Taiwan wasting time and money on ships and tanks and airplanes becasue sdellign prices are higher, then this is counter-productive for the security of Taiwan.

[Dargo]

Taiwan's spending on defense has increased around 80 percent in the past eight years, Taipei allocated a record $19 billion for 2024 and next year's budget is set to hit a new high, as it seeks to bolster a more agile defense approach. Taiwan is waiting on an order of 66 new F-16V fighter jets that are expected to begin to arrive before the end of the year.

[Skybird]

One such F-16 equals the costs of 20-40 Harpoons, depending on the version of the F-16 bought. And there are cheaper anti-ship missiles available. The French Exocet of the last two blocks for exmapel cost seven times less than a Harpoon. The latest block of the Exocet has a range of 200 km and thus can cover the strait of taiwan whcih is around 150 km wide.


Keep the F-16s. Give me equivalent financial value in Exocets and Harpoons. That would be HUNDREDS of anti-ship missiles.