Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[mapuc]

I understand it was a message to the West 'Don't mess with us '

Markus

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I understand it was a message to the West 'Don't mess with us '

Markus

But the West is not in awe of this Russia launched hundreds of Iskanders on Ukraine also a missile as others (Kinzjals, Kh-101) that can have a nuclear load. But then 10 times cheaper than a IRBM. It is a tepid attempt to instill fear in the West, purely a demonstration of power. A Russian information campaign with explicit threats and nuclear muscle to discourage Western military support for Ukraine. The only new thing about Thursday's attack was the missile on itself, Putin is escalating the war anyway without caring about decisions from the West. Time after time, he refused to strike back when Western allies ramped up their support for Ukraine. Putin pushed the goalposts further each time the West saw through his blustering attempts. Putin has become increasingly entangled in his own implausible red lines. It may now be clear that Putin's red lines are simply a bluff aimed at scaring off the West and isolating Ukraine. Over the past two and a half years, his attempts to deter his international opponents have been exposed time and again. The use of empty threats highlights the weakness of his position. If Western leaders can finally overcome their fears of escalation, they will find that Putin is in a much weaker position than he would have us believe. In this way, continued attempts to dissuade the West from further aid to Ukraine may well have the opposite effect. Why would we believe anything of a Russia that has already destroyed Ukraine air force including F-16s, all HIMARS, Patriot or ATACMS batteries tenfold that still can not win strategical after +1000 days.

Russia's new "Kedr" ballistic missile hit Dnipro, says Ukrainian intelligence: the missile flew from the Astrakhan region to Dnipro in 15 minutes, carried 6 warheads with 6 sub munitions each, and reached speeds over Mach 11. Russia may have up to 10 of these missiles do not expect Russia will use more but if they do, it is ok also it weakens Russia's nuclear strategical defense how weaker it becomes the sooner China will take back Outer Manchuria.

Oops:

DOD Adjusts Nuclear Deterrence Strategy as Nuclear Peer Adversaries Escalate

[Dargo]

Russia’s Economy Is Spoiling as Putin Struggles to Balance Guns and Butter

As President Vladimir Putin doubles down on military spending, Russia’s economy is curdling, leaving Muscovites feeling the squeeze at the checkout. Butter — a simple staple — has turned into a luxury, with prices soaring by almost 30% in 2024 amid galloping inflation and interest rates at 20-year highs. This isn’t just theory — people are now stealing butter to resell on the black market, and supermarkets have resorted to anti-theft casings typically reserved for caviar or fine whiskey. Prices are skyrocketing on other basics, too: potatoes are up 56%, eggs are once again in short supply, and the ruble has plunged to a one-year low, further eroding the purchasing power of ordinary Russians. This is more than just a budget crunch. It is a stark symbol of an economy buckling under the weight of Putin’s war-driven spending spree.

The Kremlin’s solution? Importing overpriced essentials from Iran, India, and Turkey, while Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev “monitors” prices with no plans to cap them. Meanwhile, inflation is being driven not by standard market dynamics but by relentless wartime spending that is pushing the economy to the brink. My mother-in-law learned this firsthand on a recent visit to Dublin. Last month, she was shocked to find that Brest-Litovsk butter in Moscow now costs 250 rubles ($2.47) — nearly the same price as premium Kerrygold in Ireland.

Butter prices in Russia have skyrocketed, sparking a wave of supermarket thefts as inflation accelerates amid the highest interest rates in 20 years. Some Muscovites are turning to armed robbery to obtain such a basic good as prices soar beyond the reach of many. Surveillance footage dated Oct. 29 from a Pyaterochka supermarket on Leningradskoye highway captured two men attempting to steal 25 packs of butter. As they tried to escape, a scuffle broke out at the store's exit: one robber struck a store assistant repeatedly, while the other threatened her with a knife. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/...-butter-a86958

[Jimbuna]

"We are exhausted. HIMARS is almost nonexistent,": Ukraine’s Armed Forces lack infantry and artillery to deter Russia’s army - The New York Times

The Ukrainian army lacks infantry and artillery to counter Russian troops, who are ready to suffer "staggering casualties."

The New York Times writes about this, citing soldiers and commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Censor.NET reports with reference to NV.

According to them, Ukrainian troops are facing a lack of combat infantry and experienced officers who could effectively lead recruits. This has weakened Ukraine's defense lines, allowing Russia to make its biggest gains of the war. The military said it was speaking publicly about the problems in hopes of conveying the urgency of the moment to military and civilian leaders, as well as the public.

"The brigades that have been fighting for a long time are simply exhausted. We are exhausted. People need to mobilize and serve. There is no other way," said a captain named Viacheslav.

Ukraine is facing a shortage of medium- and long-range weapons that are needed to effectively strike Russian logistics centers, command posts, and other important targets, the NYT reports.

"I hardly hear the HIMARS. They are almost non-existent... If we had more ammunition, it could compensate for the lack of people," said 33-year-old drone operator Sergeant Major Dmitry.

Commanders report that due to the lack of artillery, drones account for the majority of enemy casualties on the frontline (80% or more), making drone operators important targets.

"It's a constant struggle for survival: every day is a matter of luck," said Dmytro.

According to the soldiers, although the drones help, they are not able to fully stabilize the defense lines and stop the Russian offensive. Nevertheless, despite the difficulties, Ukrainian soldiers continue to make the enemy pay a high price for every advance. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3521413

[Skybird]

https://www-morgenpost-de.translate...._x_tr_pto=wapp

In the fall of 2022, 35,000 Russian soldiers were surrounded near Kherson: the bridges over the Dnipro were destroyed. The makeshift crossings were under constant fire. At that time, US intelligence learned "that there was a real danger of a nuclear strike." It was discussed at the Russian tactical leadership level. The Americans sent two signals. They made it clear to Russia that they would intervene in such a case; and to Ukraine that they should tolerate the Russians' withdrawal. Reisner refers to a British newspaper that says that the then Prime Minister Liz Truss was studying weather reports at the time: she wanted to know whether there would have been nuclear fallout over Great Britain in the event of a nuclear explosion.

This means that the West will fall back every time Russia claims something too unacceptablele that it woudl seriously put its war goals into question. Which translates into Rujssia will wint he war any way, becasue any serosu threat to this outcome would make the Russias rais ethreats from whcib the Wets then would flal back. That way, the West has given up the war for beginning on. If you will fall back any time the enemy will tell you he goes nuclear if you do not let him win or put his intention to win into serious threat, then you must not even get started.


This also means: the Ukraine has lost, and is lost. I therefore see no point in continuing the slow and prolongued death of Ukraine. They should negotiate to Russia's terms and give the occupied territories up. I hate to say this, but thats how I have come to see it over the past months, since late summer.



The West makes me sick.



I would claim (and in fact do claim since summer 2022) that this was Berlin's and Paris' and Brussels' and Washington's intention from beginning on. To behave just "as if", for alibi purposes ("we tried, but the Russians were too determined..."), while just weakening Russia's military and let Ukraine pay for it with continuing self-destruction. Boiling the frog. Nobody in Europe wnats the ukraine into the European club, it would mean a massive shifting of the centre of power from the West to the East of Europe. And that was never to be accepted.



A club of liars.



I see no reallstic chance for Ukraine to "in", or to take back the occupied territories.


Russian forces on Ukrainian soil now count over 700,000, still growing. Those many propaganda videos by Ukraine on how they do thsi and that to some Russian unti here or there - in the big picture mean practically nothing, are propaganda to keep morale burning. I doubt that it works with the exhausted troops on the front. That might be the reason why Ukrainian desertations grow higher from month to month.



Babble Olaf says there should be a just peace negotiated. Well, Russia doe snto need to take care for justice or fairness. It can more or less dictate the conditions.



I hate this outcome, but again: the War is decided. Ukraine lost. The West pissed his pants. The only question now is how many more Ukrainians must die and how much more damage to cities and infrastructure it takes until Ukraine is ready to admit this grim truth.



I do not expect Trump to do anythgi s urrpsing that would massively alter the way the war is going, and then making the Ukraine winning. He will not do such a massive thing. The Pentagon btw is in a working mode of preparing for the war with China. Thats why the are boiling the Russian frog. But they possibly got the oppsoite of ehat they epcted: not a weakening of Russia, but a unifying of the anti-Western front.


I think that future historians will take the Russian assault on Ukraine as the turning point in time when the inherent slow collapse of the Western cultural sphere and its dominant relevance in the world turned open and obvious.


The next highly relevant event smashing the West will be China's challenge to the American carrier group concept. I am not putting that much confidence into these carrier groups as the Americans do. They are nice for suprerssing oinfeiror enemies. Equal enemies on same eye level thats a completely different story then. And every missile defence can be over saturated, every carrier wing can be outnumbered. Chinese losses would be high. American carriers would be gone. Who can digest this outcome better, China or the US? I think the answer is obvious. Smart weapons and AI do not care for the training expertise of crews and officers. And a simple balloon showed to be enough to raise serious problems to American defences.



The West is in decline. Thats what it all means.

[Skybird]

And more good news.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg07zw9vj1o


And Europe continues to sleep deep and soundly.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Otto Harkaman]

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

https://www-morgenpost-de.translate...._x_tr_pto=wapp





This means that the West will fall back every time Russia claims something too unacceptablele that it woudl seriously put its war goals into question. Which translates into Rujssia will wint he war any way, becasue any serosu threat to this outcome would make the Russias rais ethreats from whcib the Wets then would flal back. That way, the West has given up the war for beginning on. If you will fall back any time the enemy will tell you he goes nuclear if you do not let him win or put his intention to win into serious threat, then you must not even get started.


This also means: the Ukraine has lost, and is lost. I therefore see no point in continuing the slow and prolongued death of Ukraine. They should negotiate to Russia's terms and give the occupied territories up. I hate to say this, but thats how I have come to see it over the past months, since late summer.



The West makes me sick.



I would claim (and in fact do claim since summer 2022) that this was Berlin's and Paris' and Brussels' and Washington's intention from beginning on. To behave just "as if", for alibi purposes ("we tried, but the Russians were too determined..."), while just weakening Russia's military and let Ukraine pay for it with continuing self-destruction. Boiling the frog. Nobody in Europe wnats the ukraine into the European club, it would mean a massive shifting of the centre of power from the West to the East of Europe. And that was never to be accepted.



A club of liars.



I see no reallstic chance for Ukraine to "in", or to take back the occupied territories.


Russian forces on Ukrainian soil now count over 700,000, still growing. Those many propaganda videos by Ukraine on how they do thsi and that to some Russian unti here or there - in the big picture mean practically nothing, are propaganda to keep morale burning. I doubt that it works with the exhausted troops on the front. That might be the reason why Ukrainian desertations grow higher from month to month.



Babble Olaf says there should be a just peace negotiated. Well, Russia doe snto need to take care for justice or fairness. It can more or less dictate the conditions.



I hate this outcome, but again: the War is decided. Ukraine lost. The West pissed his pants. The only question now is how many more Ukrainians must die and how much more damage to cities and infrastructure it takes until Ukraine is ready to admit this grim truth.



I do not expect Trump to do anythgi s urrpsing that would massively alter the way the war is going, and then making the Ukraine winning. He will not do such a massive thing. The Pentagon btw is in a working mode of preparing for the war with China. Thats why the are boiling the Russian frog. But they possibly got the oppsoite of ehat they epcted: not a weakening of Russia, but a unifying of the anti-Western front.


I think that future historians will take the Russian assault on Ukraine as the turning point in time when the inherent slow collapse of the Western cultural sphere and its dominant relevance in the world turned open and obvious.


The next highly relevant event smashing the West will be China's challenge to the American carrier group concept. I am not putting that much confidence into these carrier groups as the Americans do. They are nice for suprerssing oinfeiror enemies. Equal enemies on same eye level thats a completely different story then. And every missile defence can be over saturated, every carrier wing can be outnumbered. Chinese losses would be high. American carriers would be gone. Who can digest this outcome better, China or the US? I think the answer is obvious. Smart weapons and AI do not care for the training expertise of crews and officers. And a simple balloon showed to be enough to raise serious problems to American defences.



The West is in decline. Thats what it all means.

Cry me a river with your defeatism the West is far greater in its economy, military and nuclear deterence a couple new missles of Russia we can out produce in short time. Russian economy is the size of the New York City economy. Yes, you heard that right. Not even the State of New York. New York City GDP equals that to Russia’s. Actually, with all the sanctions and price caps on Russian oil, Im sure New York GDP now is higher than Russian. Considering Russian economy is about 60% exports of what they dig out of the ground, considering their minimal wage is like $ 100 per month, millions of people living below poverty line, Russia has no place anywhere near economical charts of developed countries. The funny part is that the USSR produced far more manufactured goods (as a percentage of GDP) compared with Putinistic Russia. The communists were 'striving' to buy and produce technologies, and tried to be technologically independent. Putin's Russia is not even able to produce efficient oil and gas extraction equipment. Russia needs the West, the West doesn’t need Russia! Even a small European nation like the Netherlands scores a GDP of 1,0 trillion (Russia GDP $2,24 trillion) with just 17 million population and limited natural resources. The difference between Norway and Russia in average living standards is 90 percent, highest in the world between two countries with common border (UN/OECD,2018). And we are in decline sure dream on. 1 Russian Ruble equals 0,0092 Euro wow what a glorious progress.

[Skybird]

Jajajaaa... Always the same song of ignorring the reality that is laid out right before your eyes, but does not look like you want it to be. Well, reality is more convincing than you. And reality is that Russia succeeds faster and faster in the derstruction of Ukraine. Your acceptance of this reality is not needed for it to be like it is. Reality simply is fact. And the facts speak against you since many, many months.

Take me by my word. Russia keeps the five occupied oblasts. The only question left is how much more destruction Ukraine will sustain before the government quits.

Because by the end of it all, wars get won not by words and ideas and hopes, but battles won, sufficient reserves to endure it, ground taken an dheld, and destruction applied to the enemy. Russia looses many men, yes. Obviously it can diugest that - every month it sends another 30-35 thousand in, additonal to those already there. The losses Ukraine suffers, industrially, economically, militarily in regards to material and men, cannot be replaced that easy. And the numerical superiority of Russia is not stable, but it grows even further every month.


Realism is no defeatism at all, but sense of responsibility. Hope is no strategy. Propaganda is no surrogate for lacking supplies.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Jajajaaa... Always the same song of ignorring the reality that is laid out right before your eyes, but does not look like you want it to be. Well, reality is more convincing than you. And reality is that Russia succeeds faster and faster in the derstruction of Ukraine. Your acceptance of this reality is not needed for it to be like it is. Reality simply is fact. And the facts speak against you since many, many months.

Take me by my word. Russia keeps the five occupied oblasts. The only question left is how much more destruction Ukraine will sustain before the government quits.

Because by the end of it all, wars get won not by words and ideas and hopes, but battles won, sufficient reserves to endure it, ground taken an dheld, and destruction applied to the enemy. Russia looses many men, yes. Obviously it can diugest that - every month it sends another 30-35 thousand in, additonal to those already there. The losses Ukraine suffers, industrially, economically, militarily in regards to material and men, cannot be replaced that easy. And the numerical superiority of Russia is not stable, but it grows even further every month.


Realism is no defeatism at all, but sense of responsibility. Hope is no strategy. Propaganda is no surrogate for lacking supplies.

This no hope but facts you are stuck with ukraine lost terretory but that does not determine a defeat or victory for the West. Ukraine in the Western bloc is key strategical goal no matter what Ukraine suffers, industrially, economically, militarily that can and will be rebuild like we did after WW2 with Germany the West is already doing that. More on the Russian superiority a country that depends 80% on pariah countries for its war production and largly on China to keep up its economy. Russia has an annual military budget of $48 billion and Ukraine's budget is $5.4 billion. NATO's eastern block has an annual military budget of $30 billion. Other European NATO countries have a budget of $246 billion roughly x5 that of Russia. The combined budget of Sweden and Finland is $10 billion. The total military budget of NATO (including the U.S. and Canada) however amounts to more than $1 trillion.

[Skybird]

That are academical finger exercises. And while you practice them, Ukraine more and more gets bombed into oblivion and its forces more and more must fall back and dont know in and out anymore. Atrition war. And Ukraine is at the losing end of it. Necessarily. Its a smaller people, a smaller country, a smaller production capacityo f which much is destroyed already and anorhg rbgi share is hampered, and its powerplants almpast all are DESTROYED. And you play number games about Rubles in the future and speculations about Russia'S future economyin the future...? Thats hypertheoretical and disconnected form t he rpesen reality. It simpy, doe snot matter what will be in two years in Russia. Ukraine gets bombe dinto oieces right now. And the nRussian ever pump up the volume and so far nothign the West has done seriosuly impressed them. Not to mention: stopped them. The pump up the volume instead.



Russia produces military stuff currently in three month what all of Europe produces in a full year. Russia produces four times more miliutary stuff per time than all of Europe together. That is no theory. No future. That is NOW. And nobody in Europe has answered that so far. Nor seems to be capable. Nor seems to be willing.



What will happen with Russia and Ukraine in the years after the war, does not interest me at present, thats just entertainment and speculation. How Ukraine can survive the imminent present - that is the problem, and it commands any other problem to step aside for the time being. They are running out of breath very, very rapidly.



Right your way of arguing and speculation about a future is the reason why the West does not get its acts together in this confict.



When you have your head under water and cant get air, I hardly believe you would in these seconds then mind to plan your next year's summer holiday and wondering how many Mexican Pesos you get for your Euros.