Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Dargo]

The Russian army is facing two problems: a shortage of ammunition and a surplus of ‘dedushki’, or grandpas

Russia is forced to send increasingly older military personnel to Ukraine. The average age of recruits is around 50. Younger colleagues voice criticism. ‘They can't cope.’ There are two main problems facing the Russian army: a shortage of ammunition and a surplus of dedushki, or grandpas. This is what a Russian parliamentarian who regularly travels to the frontline tells independent Russian news platform Vjorstka. Sources within the army and Moscow city hall also confirmed to the medium that the age of soldiers at the front has been significantly higher than before since this year.

According to the parliamentarian, there is a steady increase of ‘grandfathers’ at the front, as soldiers aged 50 or older are called. These are words confirmed by a source at the Moscow municipality, which states, based on recruitment statistics, that the age of new recruits from the capital is on the rise. Early this year it was around 40, but now the men leaving for the front are 50 on average. ‘There are even sixtysomethings among them,’ he says. There are also reports from the occupied territories themselves that ‘grandpas’ are joining the ranks at the front in increasing numbers. A soldier fighting in the Donetsk region of Ukraine tells Vjorstka that his battalion has lost roughly five hundred men since the beginning of the summer because they were wounded or killed. ‘They send us replacements. But half are over 50.’

In a video he himself comments on, another soldier tells a similar story. The footage shows a 62-year-old man in full military dress trudging through the snow as if he had just had hip surgery. ‘There are only old men going to war,’ the accompanying criticism echoes. ‘This is the kind of fighters they are recruiting for us.’ According to all interviewees, the older soldiers are not fit for combat because of their physical condition. The average army outfit can easily weigh tens of kilos. With that weight on their backs, soldiers have to lug for kilometres, move quickly to change combat positions or dig trenches. ‘They can't cope,’ concludes one of the younger soldiers in a written message to Vjorstka. ‘They are all sick. Either their legs hurt, or their heads. They are slow. They are mowed down.’

That the Kremlin is forced to deploy older and older recruits suggests that the Russian army is increasingly facing a personnel shortage. That the enthusiasm for entering the army among young men is not great was already evident in September 2022, when Putin declared a partial mobilisation and tens of thousands of men fled Russia. Putin ordered a month ago, for the third time since the start of the war, that the Russian armed forces should bolster its ranks with 180,000 more men. It is unclear where those soldiers are to come from. Not surprisingly, the Kremlin is also trying to entice men with bonuses: in numerous regions, recruits receive signing bonuses of several thousand euros if they take up arms. Possibly it is a reason for the dedushki to put their lives on the line. Because there is no doubt that more older men are now being killed as well, according to data from the Russian independent medium Mediazona, which in collaboration with the BBC counts Russian deaths in Ukraine based on public data. This year alone, at least 2475 men aged 45 or over died: about half of all soldiers killed whose age could be confirmed.

https://www.demorgen.be/oorlog-in-oe...pa-s~b2231b2d/

[Jimbuna]

Netherlands to allocate €271 million for artillery shells for Ukraine

Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof said that the Netherlands will allocate 271 million euros for large-caliber artillery shells for Ukraine.

He wrote about this on the social network X, Censor.NET reports.

"Denmark, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands are committed to jointly supporting Ukraine in the fight against Russian aggression. A year ago we launched an initiative to supply ammunition, and today we are taking the next important step. We will supply more large-caliber artillery ammunition. The Netherlands will allocate 271 million euros for artillery shells. By doing so, we will help Ukraine with the supply of ammunition in 2025 and encourage the European defense industry to further expand," the statement said. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3515424

Norway will provide Ukraine with six F-16s and help strengthen Ukrainian air defense - Umierov

During the NATO-Ukraine Council, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umierov held bilateral talks with Norwegian Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram.

According to Censor.NET, this is stated in a statement by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

"We discussed the current situation at the front and our needs, in particular in long-range weapons. We reached specific agreements on strengthening our air defense. A separate focus is the aviation component. In particular, strengthening our capabilities with F16 fighters," said the head of the Ukrainian defense ministry.

Norway was also invited to join the Danish model of direct financing of Ukrainian defense companies.

"Separately, I offered Norway to take "patronage" over one of the AFU brigades, similar to France's, which includes training and manning. New announcements are coming soon," Umierov added. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3515413

[Dargo]

Netherlands Acquires Six DITA Howitzers for Ukraine’s Defense

The Netherlands has ordered 6 new 155 mm DITA self-propelled howitzers from the Czech Republic for Ukraine. This is reported on the website of the Ministry of Defense of the Netherlands. The Dutch Defense Minister announced the new aid for Ukraine during a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels. In addition, the Minister also stated that the previous 9 ordered DITA systems had already been delivered to Ukraine this summer.

“Ukraine has a huge need for weapons and ammunition. Russia is deploying a huge number of personnel to the battlefield. We must continue to help Ukraine defend itself. That’s why, together with the Czech Republic and Denmark, we are working hard to deliver armored howitzers and ammunition next year,” said the Defense Minister, Ruben Brekelmans. https://mil.in.ua/en/news/netherland...ine-s-defense/

Orban said that the Victory Plan scares him and called on Scholz and Macron to start talks with Russia

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has said that the Victory Plan presented by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the Ukrainian parliament on 16 October scares him. ‘What he outlined yesterday in the Ukrainian parliament is more than frightening. I am one of those who call on the European Union to change its current strategy,’ Orban wrote, Censor.NET reports citing LigaBusinessInform.

According to him, the EU ‘entered this war with a poorly organised, poorly executed strategy based on poor calculations’. The Hungarian prime minister believes that the EU should change its war strategy to a peaceful strategy, and for this purpose, the bloc should seek a ceasefire in Ukraine and negotiations. He urged German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron to ‘start negotiations with the Russians as soon as possible on behalf of the entire European Union so that we can find a way out of this situation’. Source: https://censor.net/ua/n3515448

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Netherlands to allocate €271 million for artillery shells for Ukraine

The price of standard 155mm ammunition has quadrupled since pre-war times and is now around 8000 euros per round. 271 million is therefore equivalent to about 34,000 rounds of standard 155mm ammunition.

Current estimates of Ukraine's daily consumption of 155mm rounds range from 2000 to 6000, depending on the intensity of fighting on any given day.

271 million would therefore pay for 6 to 17 days.

I am not criticising the Netherlands. I just want to reiterate how small the total amount Ukraine is actually receiving is. This only delays Ukraine's defeat - it does not prevent Russia from winning.

Russia is currently firing 10-16 thousand heavy artillery shells a day alone, and even more on days of extremely intense fighting.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The price of standard 155mm ammunition has quadrupled since pre-war times and is now around 8000 euros per round. 271 million is therefore equivalent to about 34,000 rounds of standard 155mm ammunition.

Current estimates of Ukraine's daily consumption of 155mm rounds range from 2000 to 6000, depending on the intensity of fighting on any given day.

271 million would therefore pay for 6 to 17 days.

I am not criticising the Netherlands. I just want to reiterate how small the total amount Ukraine is actually receiving is. This only delays Ukraine's defeat - it does not prevent Russia from winning.

Russia is currently firing 10-16 thousand heavy artillery shells a day alone, and even more on days of extremely intense fighting.

...and Russia have their problems too-Their factory can't keep up with the ammo production-The ammo they get from NK and Iran is far from enough.

It will only be a matter of time when Russian artillery has to decrease their amount of daily firing shells.

If I remember correctly it was said in the news here in Denmark some month ago, that Russian weapon factory could produce was it 6 or 8.000 rounds per day.

Markus

[Skybird]

^ Two things.


For months and years we have been told that Russia could not do this, could not keep up. And yet, to this day, they continue to advance and they can do so very well.

For a long time now we have been told that Ukraine has blown up this arsenal and that refinery, this logistic hot spot and that military command centre, this armoured column here and that troops agglomeration there. And that Russian finances are about to collapse. Has that had any effect on the Russian advance, let alone their war effort?

The Ukrainians do not have what it takes to deliver strategic blows that are so heavy-weighted that they would really force Russia to change its war ambitions. This lack of punch is the problem, and it can be explained. The term "shooting for the gallery" comes to mind. Nice epee fencing by Ukraine, it really knows the ballet steps. What is needed are blows into the Russian production and industry and energy sector and so forth - not with an epee but the two-handed war hammer or a morning star.

Right the kind of things the West does prevent ukraine to carry out. I cannot imagine how frustrated Selensky must be. His recent PR tour was an utmost desaster for him and Ukraine. He got practically - nothing of what he demanded most.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

^ Two things.


For months and years we have been told that Russia could not do this, could not keep up. And yet, to this day, they continue to advance and they can do so very well.

For a long time now we have been told that Ukraine has blown up this arsenal and that refinery, this logistic hot spot and that military command centre, this armoured column here and that troops agglomeration there. And that Russian finances are about to collapse. Has that had any effect on the Russian advance, let alone their war effort?

The Ukrainians do not have what it takes to deliver strategic blows that are so heavy-weighted that they would really force Russia to change its war ambitions. This lack of punch is the problem, and it can be explained. The term "shooting for the gallery" comes to mind. Nice epee fencing by Ukraine, it really knows the ballet steps. What is needed are blows into the Russian production and industry and energy sector and so forth - not with an epee but the two-handed war hammer or a morning star.

Right the kind of things the West does prevent ukraine to carry out. I cannot imagine how frustrated Selensky must be. His recent PR tour was an utmost desaster for him and Ukraine. He got practically - nothing of what he demanded most.

I didn't say the Russian weren't advancing, 'cause they are even if it's only a few meters per day, they are advancing. It is their daily use of ammo and weapons that cost Russia-The Russian factories can't keep up with amount being used and/or destroyed. This is why I say it would only be a matter of time before they have to decrease their daily use of 152 mm shells, just like Ukraine have too.

Otherwise I agree with you on the Ukraine matter.

Markus

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Skybird

[...]
For months and years we have been told that Russia Ukraine could not do this, could not keep up. And yet, to this day, they continue to advance defend and they can do so very well.

Corrected this for you ..
Yes I know what you mean, but you are being defeatist and negative in a way Putin sure must be proud of you.
"Soaring" seems to mean you feel above all else and let yourself down from time to time to comment. Understanding this does not mean to like it

[...]
The Ukrainians do not have what it takes to deliver strategic blows that are so heavy-weighted that they would really force Russia to change its war ambitions. This lack of punch is the problem, and it can be explained. The term "shooting for the gallery" comes to mind. Nice epee fencing by Ukraine, it really knows the ballet steps. What is needed are blows into the Russian production and industry and energy sector and so forth - not with an epee but the two-handed war hammer or a morning star.

I cannot imagine how frustrated Selensky must be. His recent PR tour was an utmost desaster for him and Ukraine. He got practically - nothing of what he demanded most.

But I fully agree with the above, the west/we is not helping. Indeed we have the chuzpe to forbid the fighting ukrainians to strike and effectively hit Putin's war logistics

Two questions:
1. When Ukraine's nuclear arsenal was withdrawn into what the former soviet union had become, wasn't there a guarantee by Russia and the West that they would care and defend in case of an attack against Ukraine?
What happened to this guarantee? (Poland and England after WW2 comes to mind),
2. When NATO does neither help nor gives any sign of accepting Ukraine in its rows, how are chances that Ukraine develops it own nuclear arsenal?

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Corrected this for you ..
Yes I know what you mean, but you are being defeatist and negative in a way Putin sure must be proud of you.
"Soaring" seems to mean you feel above all else and let yourself down from time to time to comment. Understanding this does not mean to like it


But I fully agree with the above, the west/we is not helping. Indeed we have the chuzpe to forbid the fighting ukrainians to strike and effectively hit Putin's war logistics

Two questions:
1. When Ukraine's nuclear arsenal was withdrawn into what the former soviet union had become, wasn't there a guarantee by Russia and the West that they would care and defend in case of an attack against Ukraine?
What happened to this guarantee? (Poland and England after WW2 comes to mind),
2. When NATO does neither help nor gives any sign of accepting Ukraine in its rows, how are chances that Ukraine develops it own nuclear arsenal?

1- Yes you can read about it in the Budapest Memorandum
2- This would take decades to develop.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

There are no opponents of Ukraine joining NATO - Umerov

There were no opponents of joining NATO during the discussions regarding the invitation of Ukraine to the Alliance.

This was stated by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov after meetings with the defense ministers of NATO member countries, Censor.NET reports with reference to Ukrinform.

"I will say very honestly: there was no question. I thought that there would be a question of whether someone wants or does not want - there is no such thing. Everyone wants Ukraine to be in NATO. The bigger question was how can we help now and how quickly can we do it. These are internal questions, they will speak internally. But I didn't hear anything against it in the hall, by feeling," he said.

Umyerov said that the issue of Ukraine's accession to NATO has always been considered out of time, but Ukraine should advance its action plan.

"We must live according to our plan. We want to be a country in NATO, a country in the European Union, and I hope that in the future we will also become a country of the G20," the minister concluded. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3515548

Scholz did not support central points of Zelenskyy’s "Victory Plan" due to fears of further escalation of war

The Federal Chancellor of Germany criticized the victory plan presented by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the EU summit in Brussels.

As Censor.NET informs, this is reported by Suddeutsche Zeitung.

The chancellor justified his position with fears of further escalation. Scholz said that he is responsible for ensuring that the war between Russia and Ukraine does not become a war between Russia and NATO.

He added that nothing would change his decision to deny Kyiv the supply of Taurus cruise missiles.

"I don't think such supply is right, and it will remain that way," Scholz said.

He also intends to block the quick invitation of Ukraine to NATO. He referred to the resolution of the last NATO summit in Washington when the Alliance decided on the invitation - then the USA and Germany were against it. The resolution emphasized that an invitation to NATO can be given only after all allies agree to it and all the conditions of admission are met. Such conditions include reforms in the fields of democracy, economy, and security. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3515544

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Scholz did not support central points of Zelenskyy’s "Victory Plan" due to fears of further escalation of war

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

2- This would take decades to develop.

Markus

They must not do it from scratch, but can fall back on past designs that they just modify. A simple free falling nuclear bomb to be dropped form an airplane - or being transported in a suitcase... - can be done quite fast if you have weapon-ready plutonium. Difficult are ballistic missiles as carriers. I seem to recall Ukraine was a powerhouse of nuclear weapons production in the USSR. And nuclear reactors they have until today.
Another option is nuclear artillery grenades. But i have no idea whether these are simple or difficult to do. These existed during the cold war for sure.

[mapuc]

Markus

[Jimbuna]