Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

^ ???

His Royal Smirkiness: El Cancler Olaf the Little, savior of Russian interests and pacifier of the stubborn rebels. Three times vaccinated and six times boostered against learning effects, unmoved keeper of the eternal truth that only he knows, and silhouette of the shadows Putinesque threats cast against the cave wall.

[mapuc]

Ok, I misinterpreted his facial expression - He otherwise looked very pleased in how the situation has developed so far.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by ET2SN

Not picking on Jim too much, but if a NATO member stations some of their troops/military in Ukraine it makes things complicated (Article 5) if those troops come under attack.

"Nothing prevents NATO members from joining such an undertaking individually or in groups, but the organisation (NATO) would get involved only if all 31 members agreed." ~NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg

[Dargo]

In the Mariupol and Avdiivka directions, the Armed Forces of Ukraine shot down two more Su-34 fighter-bombers of the Russian crash force, this is three that bite the mud today. What is A-50 doing? 13 Russian Su-34s in just 11 days, these warplanes have been mercilessly bombing the front lines, including civilian areas. Russia had about 140 Su-34 Fighter Bombers at the start of the war +25 Su-34s were lost in 2022 and 2023. In total, Russia lost about 25% of its Su-34s during the war, and has about 106 Su-34s remaining and of those left not all will be operational through cannibalism and shortage of pilots every plane losses a pilot that need to be replaced by a trained pilot.

India is seeking a substitute for Russian oil due to sanctions Refinery managers familiar with the situation reported to Bloomberg that tightening U.S. sanctions are hindering oil trade between India and Russia, forcing the country to explore other suppliers. In particular, oil supplies to India from Saudi Arabia increased by 22% this month compared to January.

The last hours of the calendar winter... and not a single blackout due to Russian missile attacks this time around in Kyiv and the entire Ukraine. Ukraine made it through the second winter of war and export through the Black Sea on pre invasion volumes.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrsky named the main tasks currently facing the Defense Forces. "My main task is to effectively use the combat capabilities of the weapons and military equipment of our units to inflict maximum losses on the enemy and destroy a significant part of his artillery and armored vehicles; to maintain the occupied positions and restore the position where we retreated", - he declared.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Ok, I misinterpreted his facial expression - He otherwise looked very pleased in how the situation has developed so far.

Markus

He always smirks, he is a teflon-coated Grinsekatze. Who said you misinterpreted something there?

That's the problem with this stubborn dog. He is completely satisfied with everything he does, dripping with smug self-satisfaction and unwaveringly convinced that he knows everything better than anyone else. And when it explodes in his hand - he is unconvincingly convinced that he has succeeded and succeeded better than anyone else, and that everything he does is simply fantastic. In that respect, he is in no way inferior to Trump.

The guy's a disaster. He always was. And he NEVER has said that Russia should lose the war. NEVER. Which implies that he is okay with Ukraine paying the price.

[Skybird]

Colonel Reisner thinks its possible F-16s are already in action.

https://www-n--tv-de.translate.goog/...en&_x_tr_hl=de

[Dargo]

^I hear that Ukraine has a new wunder anti-air missile system, the Blyat-200.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

His Royal Smirkiness: El Cancler Olaf the Little, savior of Russian interests and pacifier of the stubborn rebels. Three times vaccinated and six times boostered against learning effects, unmoved keeper of the eternal truth that only he knows, and silhouette of the shadows Putinesque threats cast against the cave wall.

Ah right, appreciate the explanation

[Jimbuna]

Putin warns West against sending troops to Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Western countries against sending troops to Ukraine.

The consequences of such a decision would be "tragic", he said.

In his annual state of the nation address, President Putin accused the West of trying to drag Russia into an arms race.

At the same time, he said that Russia needed to strengthen its defences on its western border now that Sweden and Finland were joining Nato.

President Putin said the West "provoked" the conflict in Ukraine and "continues to lie, without any embarrassment, saying that Russia allegedly intends to attack Europe".

Probably referring to comments by French President Emmanuel Macron earlier this week that sending Nato ground troops to Ukraine "could not be excluded", President Putin said: "The consequences for possible interventionists will be... tragic."

"We also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory," he added.

"All this really threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons and the destruction of civilisation. Don't they get that?"

Several Nato countries, including the US, Germany and the UK, ruled out deploying ground troops to Ukraine.

President Putin also boasted about Russia's sophisticated weapons - like hypersonic aircraft and unmanned underwater vehicles - and said that Russia's strategic nuclear forces are in a "state of full readiness".

Notably, President Putin explicitly referred to the two years of fighting in Ukraine as a "war", despite his repeated insistence that Russia's invasion should be described as a "special military operation".

He said that an "absolute majority" of Russians supported his decision to invade Ukraine, and that the Russian people were now united against what he called Western attempts to weaken the country.

He also hit out at accusations from the US that Russia is developing nuclear weapons for use against satellites in space.

The speech came just over two weeks before Russia's presidential election, in which President Putin is widely expected to win a fifth term in office.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the address could "to a large degree be seen as [Putin's] election programme".

Indeed, much of the address focused on domestic issues ranging from the modernisation of the tax system to pensions and incentives aimed at boosting Russia's dwindling birth rate.

He also talked about the need to improve the health of the nation, announcing a series of measures aimed at boosting Russia's life expectancy, which at 70 is currently one of the lowest in Europe.

Urging people to focus on physical activity and cut down alcohol consumption, he joked: "Stop drinking and start skiing!"

The speech lasted a record two hours and was attended by all senior politicians, the CEOs of oil and gas firms Rosneft and Gazprom, as well as religious leaders of all denominations.

It was broadcast on giant screens across Moscow, and several cinemas in Russian cities reportedly screened it free of charge.

As expected, there was no mention of the death of Alexei Navalny, the opposition leader who died in a Siberian penal colony two weeks ago and who many saw as President Putin's greatest opponent.

Navalny, who will be buried in Moscow on Friday, died under circumstances yet to be fully established on 16 February. His widow Yulia has insisted that President Putin was responsible.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68435163

[Dargo]

^That nuclear threat felt like an obligation, his focus was mostly on domestic politics. Macron's statement sending ground troops to Ukraine was immediately knocked back by NATO boss Jens Stoltenberg and other Western leaders. It was a gift for Putin only too happy to unwrap. The US has made it very clear that in case Russia uses any nuclear weapon it will cripple the Russian army in Ukraine and China also has told Putin this is a no-go escalation Russia will become the pariah in the world.

[Skybird]

The US army has made clear - what exactly? As i recall it, Biden told some words to Putin long time ago. Well. That certainly left an impression. Russia has obliterated several big cities since then. And the US never gave Ukriane what it needed tio secure victory over Russia - only the bare minimum needed to not immediately lose.

I concluded already weeks ago that the West decided to let Ukraine fall. The only question is how high they dare to push the price for Russia's army. But there is a treshhold that the West will not overstep, i am quite certain of that by now.

It is moving at like i said already two years ago. In the end the West will betray Ukraine.

I also said back then that I think Russia will use nukes if it does not get the minimum it wants to get in Ukraine. How ever it defines "minimum". Probably the five already occupied oblasts.


Zelensky dreams of much more than he can get. His people realised that meanwhile. Thats why his star is sinking. A poll they reported on last week now already had his approval rating no longer at just below 60%, but at around 50%, falling.

[Skybird]

[Focus]"What the British and French are doing in terms of target control and accompanying target control cannot be done in Germany" - this quote from the Chancellor is causing debate. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's statements on the targeting of cruise missiles in Ukraine by the UK and France have met with sharp criticism from experts and allies.

Scholz has made a serious technical error, German security expert Maximilian Terhalle, visiting professor at the London School of Economics and Political Science, told the German Press Agency on Thursday. "He has laid the axe to the cohesion of NATO" and endangered cooperation with Ukraine, said Terhalle. It was a gross mistake to make the intelligence findings of the closest allies public.

CDU politician Matthias Hauer summarized the situation on X (formerly Twitter) as follows: "French angry. British angry. Putin satisfied."

Conservative MP Tobias Ellwood, the former head of the defense committee in the British parliament, expressed similar sentiments. "This is a blatant misuse of intelligence deliberately designed to distract from Germany's reluctance to equip Ukraine with its own long-range missile system," Ellwood told the Telegraph newspaper. Russia would exploit Scholz's statements to further fuel the escalation.

On Monday, the Federal Chancellor declared his opposition to the delivery of German Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. "What the British and French are doing in terms of target control and accompanying target control cannot be done in Germany," Scholz had said. "What other countries do, which have other traditions and other constitutional institutions, is something that we cannot do in the same way."

There is speculation that the French and British are programming the Scalp and Storm Shadow cruise missiles supplied to Ukraine themselves and that the UK at least has personnel stationed in Ukraine for this purpose. This has never been officially confirmed.

The British Ministry of Defense then told Der Spiegel: "The use of Storm Shadow and the target selection process are a matter for the Ukrainian armed forces. The UK, along with other allies, is providing a range of equipment to Ukraine to assist them in countering Russia's illegal and unprovoked aggression." In response, German government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit said he saw no contradiction to the Chancellor's statements.

A spokesman for British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told journalists on Tuesday: "Apart from the small number of personnel we have in the country to support Ukraine's armed forces, we have no plans for a large-scale deployment."

France has also never officially communicated whether French soldiers are helping to program cruise missiles in Ukraine. The training of Ukrainian soldiers by France takes place in France or in neighboring countries of the country attacked by Russia, it was said so far. The reaction to Scholz's statements has now been cautious. "As far as the German Chancellor's statements are concerned, we would like to remind you that everyone acts within the framework that they consider appropriate," said the Paris Foreign Ministry on Thursday. "Our goal is the same: To make Russia fail."

[sh3rules]

Originally Posted by Dargo

^I hear that Ukraine has a new wunder anti-air missile system, the Blyat-200.

😄



Ok, that made me laugh. We're speculating here but, could Su-34s really be that helpless against F-16s? Or is it because the Russian pilots are going in blind with their A-50s being too far away from the front line? Or has Russia already lost its best pilots?

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by sh3rules

��



Ok, that made me laugh. We're speculating here but, could Su-34s really be that helpless against F-16s? Or is it because the Russian pilots are going in blind with their A-50s being too far away from the front line? Or has Russia already lost its best pilots?

Or they just did not expect Vipers to be in the air already, and got ambushed, out of the blue, unprepared. The F-16 is not only versatile, but also is a formidable air fighter - and has capable weapons for air combat BVR.
Its a believable scenario, I think.
Mind you, two A50s got shot down recently, too. And not exactly inside Ukrainian air space, but quite significantly away. I would assume their crews knew the range of Patriots, so that answer given by some I do not believe too much.

[Skybird]

ZDF Analysis: Russia can maintain the war at its current level for another 2-3 years. that would meet my estimation - or wild guess - that Ruissia, before the assault on Ukraine, was able to fight wars up to half a decade long.

https://www-fr-de.translate.goog/pol...en&_x_tr_hl=de

(...) At the moment, the Russian war economy seems to be able to compensate for the worn-out material. According to research by ZDF, Russia is unable to increase its current combat power - but the supplies are sufficient to maintain the current troop strength. Tanks are currently a major point of wear for Russia. Although Russia can draw on a huge stock of old Soviet machines, these need to be modernised and refurbished in order to be suitable for front-line operations. And even the stockpile from Soviet days cannot compensate for endless losses.

Russia has lost more tanks in the Ukraine war than the active tank fleet had at the beginning of the invasion in February 2022, writes ZDF. Russia can send 80 to 120 tanks to the front per month to compensate for this, with only 15 to 20 of these being new. The rest are modernised Soviet vehicles from the Cold War. According to current estimates, this production rate cannot be increased, as Russia has reached its maximum tank output.

The two tank plants, one in Nizhny Tagil for new production and one in Chita for tank repairs, are working at full capacity. Although it would theoretically be possible to build new plants, this would take years. At the current rate of wear and tear, Russia could theoretically hold out for another two to three years and maintain its current level of supply. (...)