Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

A thought
If Russia loses 800-1000 men each day how much time does they have on their side ?

Some have said Russia has time on their side. Maybe they have, but losing so many men each month must start to hurt or will.

It depends on how high Ukraine'S losses are in relation to that. Their manpower is not unlimited, in fact they have a serious recruiting problem already, much more serious than Russia's. And their current soldiers are often in service already since - well, since it all began. They must be worn out. Their best ones are all dead or wounded, are gone. Over the past three decades their total population shrunk from low 50 millions to low 40 millions, and further scores fled from Ukraine since the war began. The age limit has been constantly reset to higher ages. If Russisa would loose lets say five times as many men and material as Ukraine, than that might be unsustainable over time, probably. But I seriously doubt their losses compare like that. I expect something more in the range of 1.5:1 to 2:1. The battlefield is transparent now, Russia has the lead in electronic warfare and numbers of drones (they always were world leaders when it came to jamming). And this situation is not good enough, I would estimate. The ratio must be such that Russia's superior industrial and manpool capacity gets effectively depleted in relation to that of Ukraine, and this at a sufficient pace to achieve the effect that Russia cannot sustain the war anymore before Ukraine breaks down. And I do not see signs that this is the case. Instead it seems to be the other way around, despite the high Russian losses the war wears out Ukraine more than Russia. Time is on Russia's side. Western tiring is on Russia's side. US politics is on Russia's side. European indifference is on Russia'S side. Russia'W welath in resssporuces and its autarky in providing the daily needs of living for its population, its de facto autarky, is counting for Russia. Its ability to not get seriously handicapped by sanctions, is on Russia's side.

Thats a lot of strategic hard factors that are on Russia's side. Wanna win the war? Dangerously damage these variable and prevent them from being in Russia'S favour anymore. Give Ukraine the tools to do this - and in huge numbers. Until then, a blown up Russian tank or a won small firefight here or there, or a meadow more held by the end of the day, or a bunker busted, means little, means nothing.


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More signs for cracks in the leadership.


https://www-fr-de.translate.goog/pol..._x_tr_pto=wapp

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

^ I am not surprised one bit.

Havent some people said that Russia would be incapable to do this ^ ?

If Western production sleeps on, we will have serious, very, very serious problems for which there will be no remedy: because when they become obvious to even the blindest man in the room, we will no longer have a precious resource: time.

Si vis pacem para bellum. As long as there is still time left. You hear that, you deaf, blind, dumb Europe?

Note that the Russian Ruble buys so much more commodities in Russia and so much more factory labour in Russia than the dollar or Euro buys in Western contexts. Dont get fooled by their "small" defence budget", you have to scale it to its economic context. And then all of a sudden it is very HUGE.


Even if they reactivated many old tanks this year, accounting for the high numbers this year, they nevertheless have massively boosted the prodfuciton of brandnew tanks, namely T-90 which is now given a priority, and the upgraded T-80BVM. These teeth will be felt by Ukraine next year and thereafter, since Russia boosts its production capacity even further.

[Jimbuna]

I wouldn't trust a single word coming out if his mouth.

This is nothing more than a cynical attempt to split the western alliance.

Surprising claim by Putin: Wants to cooperate with Europe

Russian President Vladimir Putin has not turned away from the European nations and continues to clarify his position to them, demonstrating that it is more beneficial for them to emerge from under US dominance. This is at least what Putin wants to signal.

According to Ura News, Russia is ready for mutually beneficial cooperation and the restoration of relations with European states, he announced during the ceremony of presenting credentials by foreign ambassadors, with a particular focus on working with Germany.

Putin accepted credentials from 21 newly arrived foreign ambassadors in a traditional ceremony held in the Grand Kremlin Palace's Alexander Hall. In his welcoming speech, the president emphasized the current complex global situation and the turbulent state of the world. He pointed out that a new, fairer multipolar world order is replacing the old unipolar system.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...37ac6260&ei=19

[Catfish]

When Putin talks about cooperation with Europe it is clear he will attack at some point.

[Aktungbby]

...'twill be interesting to see if he is the Time's nominated "person of the year" yet again (since 2007)...but all of this global unipolar vs multipolar nonsense: global warming, WWII, pandemics etc. is really inconsequential; with civilization scheduled to end around 2040 anyway...

[mapuc]

Not looking good at all



Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

^ I am not surprised one bit.

Havent some people said that Russia would be incapable to do this ^ ?

If Western production sleeps on, we will have serious, very, very serious problems for which there will be no remedy: because when they become obvious to even the blindest man in the room, we will no longer have a precious resource: time.

Si vis pacem para bellum. As long as there is still time left. You hear that, you deaf, blind, dumb Europe?

Note that the Russian Ruble buys so much more commodities in Russia and so much more factory labour in Russia than the dollar or Euro buys in Western contexts. Dont get fooled by their "small" defence budget", you have to scale it to its economic context. And then all of a sudden it is very HUGE.


Even if they reactivated many old tanks this year, accounting for the high numbers this year, they nevertheless have massively boosted the prodfuciton of brandnew tanks, namely T-90 which is now given a priority, and the upgraded T-80BVM. These teeth will be felt by Ukraine next year and thereafter, since Russia boosts its production capacity even further.

Russia release cherry-picked and fabricated data releases spewed out by the increasingly unreliable Kremlin agencies, falsely certifying Putin’s fable of triumph. There is no shortage of reasons why this factory releases should be treated as dubious when not verified against cross-channel checks and alternative benchmarks. Russia has a long history of manipulating official statistics to please its leaders, “bending over backward to correct bad numbers and burying unflattering statistics” under the pressure the Kremlin has exerted to corrupt statistical integrity. If they come to this 2000 bet you they will attack in column easy targets for Ukraine or end up in their own minefields (local commanders do not know where their own mines lay because the mine laying units are gone elsewhere not leaving location of minefields) if they can survive this they run into Ukraine defence lines good luck to them.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Catfish

When Putin talks about cooperation with Europe it is clear he will attack at some point.

Precisely

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Russia release cherry-picked and fabricated data releases spewed out by the increasingly unreliable Kremlin agencies, falsely certifying Putin’s fable of triumph. There is no shortage of reasons why this factory releases should be treated as dubious when not verified against cross-channel checks and alternative benchmarks. Russia has a long history of manipulating official statistics to please its leaders, “bending over backward to correct bad numbers and burying unflattering statistics” under the pressure the Kremlin has exerted to corrupt statistical integrity. If they come to this 2000 bet you they will attack in column easy targets for Ukraine or end up in their own minefields (local commanders do not know where their own mines lay because the mine laying units are gone elsewhere not leaving location of minefields) if they can survive this they run into Ukraine defence lines good luck to them.

I wonder whether I will ever see the day when you will stop to underestimate the Russians!?

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I wonder whether I will ever see the day when you will stop to underestimate the Russians!?

When they take Berlin. Again

[mapuc]

Only time will tell, if Skybird is correct or if Dargo is correct in their statement about Russian possibility to mass produce tanks and other war material in good quality.

On the battlefield they seems to run into some massive slapping
(Ukrainian is taking some slapping too)

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I wonder whether I will ever see the day when you will stop to underestimate the Russians!?

When the second-strongest military of the World is degraded by number 15 to the second best in Ukraine, I can not comply to your request.

Russian soldiers get dropped off by BMPs around 300 to 600 meters from Ukrainians, depending on how daring the driver is, and then straight away the BMP leaves without giving any fire support maybe three of them try and run straight back and follow the BMP another two, on average, might get in some ditch and not move again until it's over, and those which actually have some balls will go for the assault, but they don’t make it far. For its economy, Russia is in majority depended (build up) by/on the west investments if a turbine in their gas system goes fubar they only can fix it with the help and material of the west same goes for the oil we run these systems for years. What else is to expect from kleptocrats, a country led by organized crime can only be going to hell with Putin at the wheel.

[Skybird]

All nice and well. And still Russia has Ukraine by it's balls and throat, slowly strangling it.

Not the other way around.


The West does not do what could and must be done to change this.