Iranian Bet.

[TteFAboB]

The U.N. Security Council passed a weakened resolution Monday giving Iran until Aug. 31 to suspend uranium enrichment or face the threat of economic and diplomatic sanctions.

So far Iran has responded with a no.

With all the upgrades to Subsim, the happy twinkle twinkle little stars, the red reputation card, the next logical step is to turn Subsim into an illegal Gambling den.

Place your bets.

[Ducimus]

Un has more bark then bite and Iran isn't going to comply to ANYTHING that can be construed as favorable to the west.

[August]

I think they'll tell the UN to stick it. Sanctions will be imposed which will soon be bypassed and they'll continue to develop the bomb behind the scenes.

[scandium]

Forget developing the bomb. If I were the leader of Iran, I'd be looking at the massive U.S. footprint in Iraq, which had its own little UN saga of sanctions and resolutions in the 10 years leading up to it, and the surprise Israeli demolition and occupation of Lebanon that is legitimized by the border skirmish instigated by a group that has ties to Iran, and then I'd start looking at my other member of the Axis of Evil triad (NK) and coming to two conclusions:

1. Since developing their nuclear weapons they've been able to give the finger to the world and commemorate this past 4th of July with their own little fireworks display inspite of the empty threats levelled at them beforehand;

2. The country was poor before developing the nuke and this hasn't changed anything on that front, but NK has always done a little trade here and there on the conventional weapons front;

Thus, one does not need to be an evil genius to conclude that its in Iran's best interests to covertly pay NK some big bucks (Iran has them, NK needs them) for a couple of nukes if only as a deterrent to threats against their own sovereignty. What happens afterward who knows, but if I were the Iranian leader that's where I'd be putting all of my efforts right now.

[August]

Originally Posted by scandium

Forget developing the bomb. If I were the leader of Iran, I'd be looking at the massive U.S. footprint in Iraq, which had its own little UN saga of sanctions and resolutions in the 10 years leading up to it, and the surprise Israeli demolition and occupation of Lebanon that is legitimized by the border skirmish instigated by a group that has ties to Iran, and then I'd start looking at my other member of the Axis of Evil triad (NK) and coming to two conclusions:

1. Since developing their nuclear weapons they've been able to give the finger to the world and commemorate this past 4th of July with their own little fireworks display inspite of the empty threats levelled at them beforehand;

2. The country was poor before developing the nuke and this hasn't changed anything on that front, but NK has always done a little trade here and there on the conventional weapons front;

Thus, one does not need to be an evil genius to conclude that its in Iran's best interests to covertly pay NK some big bucks (Iran has them, NK needs them) for a couple of nukes if only as a deterrent to threats against their own sovereignty. What happens afterward who knows, but if I were the Iranian leader that's where I'd be putting all of my efforts right now.

Like i said before Scandium, NK differs from Iraq in that it has China as it's big brother. Anyone who attacks NK risks war with China without prior approval. Something that China has never done regarding a border state, ever. I'll bet the west also has private Chinese assurances that they'll keep their NK border dog under control.

But who does an attacker of Iran face other than Iran? What nation is going to say to the US, or NATO, or Israel for that matter, that if you nuke Iran we'll nuke you?

No, the mullahs might be insane but they certainly aren't stupid. I think they'll continue to covertly work on either building or obtaining a bomb but as soon as they get it they won't just use it as a deterrent against attack. They'll try to covertly give it to somebody else to detonate in one or more western, or more likely Israeli, cities and then claim to be innocent witnesses of Allahs power against the infidel.

[STEED]

Originally Posted by TteFAboB

The U.N. Security Council passed a weakened resolution Monday giving Iran until Aug. 31 to suspend uranium enrichment or face the threat of economic and diplomatic sanctions.

September 1st
Deadline extended to October 31st

October 31st
U.N. sends a final warning to Iran. Iran sticks two fingers up to the U.N.

November 15th
U.N. has big meeting and talks lasting to the 1st December

December 1st
U.N. sends a stronger worded letter to Iran. Iran calls the U.N. warmongers

December 20th
U.N. backs down and puts the whole thing on the back burner until the year 2014


Don't mess with the U.N. or they will send you a letter.:p

[Skybird]

Iran will outsit the UN. One day, eventually there will be sanctions, more or less inefficient ones, that will be bypassed at the same time. China and India will massively work against Western attempts to isolate Iran, and strengthen their ties with it thankfully - every drop of Iranian oil the west ignores, these two will pick up without complaining. All the time Iran will keep on working on the bomb, and finally get it. The US will not massively attack Iran, they should have learned their Iraq lessons. An air campaign will not be sufficient to shut down Iran's program, causing them minor irritations and minor delays only. A ground war is out of question. only the use of nukes would do the job, and that political will to use them I do not see. Also, even nukes need target coordinates, and several key installations are unknown in their exact positioning. You see, guys, Iran simply is in the far stronger position in this, and time is working for Iran.

[Fish]

Originally Posted by August

They'll try to covertly give it to somebody else to detonate in one or more western, or more likely Israeli, cities and then claim to be innocent witnesses of Allahs power against the infidel.

I don't think so, they know Israël will flatten there country then.

[STEED]

Iran is sitting on the oil and they can do what they want.

Granted for how much longer is anyone guess. :hmm:

[Fish]

Originally Posted by STEED

Iran is sitting on the oil and they can do what they want.

Granted for how much longer is anyone guess. :hmm:

For as long as we have fusion reactors working.

[STEED]

Originally Posted by Fish

For as long as we have fusion reactors working.

Good Point.

[tycho102]

Originally Posted by Fish

For as long as we have fusion reactors working.

We don't need fusion reactors. The studies that conclude there's only enough uranium for 150 years depend on current disposal policies: Use the core, then bury what's left of it for 1000 years.

We've got plenty of uranium to run reactors, it's that no one wants to process out the plutonium and U235 for fear of it being stolen to make a bomb. Which is a pretty moot point now that Pakistan, China, North Korea, and Iran have been handing out the industrial specifications.

Man, preventing proliferation is sooooooo 1949.

[scandium]

Originally Posted by tycho102

Man, preventing proliferation is sooooooo 1949.

Indeed, and in fact the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty has become little more than something else for your president to wipe his @ss with (along with Kyoto, the antiquated Geneva Conventions, your Constitution, and well you get the idea). Case in point:

March 2, 2006

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/...n1352424.shtml

(CBS/AP) On his first trip to India, President Bush and his Indian counterpart agreed Thursday on a landmark nuclear energy agreement that deepens ties between the world's oldest and largest democracies.

Mr. Bush acknowledged it will be difficult to persuade Congress to support the agreement, in which the United States would share its nuclear know-how and fuel with India. But he said he's confident it will be approved so India can power its fast-growing economy without expanding world demand for oil.

Under the terms of the agreement, India will open 14 of its 22 nuclear reactors to international inspection, as well as all future reactors, reports CBS News senior White House correspondent Bill Plante. This deal does nothing to stop the growth of India's nuclear weapons program, but U.S. officials are betting that India's growing demand for electric power will mean a lot of nuclear reactors and billions of dollars in business for U.S. companies if Congress is willing to change the laws.

Critics in Congress say the White House is making an exception for India, which has refused to sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

"Proliferation is certainly a concern and a part of our discussions, and we've got a good-faith gesture by the Indian government that I'll be able to take to the Congress," Mr. Bush said.

Yep, nothing like a handshake to guarantee that only good things can come of these 22 nuclear reactors in India - especially when India is even willing to allow 14 of them to be inspected; I mean its not like there's any instability in that part of the world for us to worry about or anything. Oh and the best part:

July 29, 2006

http://www.boston.com/news/world/art..._of_duplicity/

WASHINGTON -- Massachusetts congressman Edward Markey yesterday accused the Bush administration of delaying an announcement that the United States plans to impose sanctions on two Indian companies for assisting in Iran's missile program.

Markey, a Malden Democrat, said the administration is withholding the announcement for fear that it would jeopardize chances of getting congressional approval for a controversial proposal to sell nuclear technology to India.


The measure, which would make India the only country in the world to receive sensitive nuclear technology from the United States without signing the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, was overwhelmingly approved by the House of Representatives late Wednesday. It now goes to the Senate.


The State Department is not expected to release the report on which Indian firms have been sanctioned until next week. But Reuters quoted two US officials yesterday saying that two Indian firms were being sanctioned for selling missiles-related technology to Iran.

But the US also has a $15 billion dollar weapons deal (F-16s) on the table with India's arch-rival, and fellow non-signatory to the NNPT (along with Israel), Pakistan, so its really just economics... billions and billions of dollars worth, so its all good I suppose.

Anyway, sorry for swipe at Bush but this guy just makes my head spin -- I mean which country are we at war with this week, Eurasia or Oceana.... I just can't keep track anymore.

[Spoon 11th]

Originally Posted by tycho102

We don't need fusion reactors.

Who's we? What about the future generations? Or is the world coming to an end before you die?

Thorium can also be used to make nuclear fuel. Much more abundant than uranium.

[TteFAboB]

That's it. Deadline is knocking on the door. The time has come.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060831/...madinejad_dc_1

Ahmadinejad refused to comply. So whoever placed a bet on that won. Now we'll have to wait a few days (weeks? Months?) and see if any sanctions are imposed, for now there's only talks.

Congratulations to the winners so far.