Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[mapuc]

How much of it is true and how much is disinformation regarding the coming landing operation in Crimea ?

I would also send lots of disinformation about my coming military operations to the enemy, mixed with true information.

Markus

[Catfish]

"Moscow sees forecast confirmed – Kremlin cheers - USA drops Ukraine"

If anyone stops supporting Ukraine we will have a russio-european war in the next decade.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

How much of it is true and how much is disinformation regarding the coming landing operation in Crimea ?

I would also send lots of disinformation about my coming military operations to the enemy, mixed with true information.

Markus

To make a landing in Crimea Ukraine needs several landing equipment to get infantry and heavy material on a bridgehead Ukraine to my knowledge does not have that, so this is disinformation.

'Russians don't manage to stop it, they do manage to slow it down': military expert on Ukraine offensive

Ukraine's "spring offensive" only started in the summer and the results have been poor, to the frustration of the West. Will anything happen now that autumn begins? 'It is also slow because the West is dawdling with arms deliveries,' says military expert Peter Wijninga (Hague Center for Strategic Studies).

How come the front line barely shifted in recent months?
This is mainly because the Ukrainians lack sufficient resources to go faster. They are conducting this offensive almost entirely on foot. They have to overcome Russian resistance nests on foot, clear minefields.... All that has taken a very long time. And as a result, Ukraine's progress is drawing down in a few hundred meters a day and not in kilometers, as the West would prefer. "The impatience among Western government leaders is therefore growing. Cracks are appearing in political support. For example, the US dawdled on the delivery of the ATACMS (long-range missiles, BDB). Poland is halting its arms deliveries for the time being due to tensions over the grain boycott against Ukraine, and the elections in Slovakia may bring in a pro-Russian government there. It all points to Western patience running out. But the West itself has been too slow in sending heavy weapons."

Is the slow progress of the Ukrainian offensive also due to the Russians?
"Yes. The fact that Ukrainian soldiers on the front line were advancing on foot was also a result of Russian minefields. The Ukrainians had started their attack with armored vehicles and tanks, but pretty soon got stuck in minefields, after which they also came under fire. Only then is a minefield effective, and the Russians did that very well. "That's why the Ukrainians decided to dig out the mines by hand, flat on their bellies. They did that on a large scale and meanwhile they organized a major air offensive with artillery, missiles and drones against the Russian lines and against supply lines behind the lines. That combination still allowed them to advance a long way, but very slowly."

So they accomplished something after all?
"That's right. So they created a bulge in the front in the south between Robotyne and Verbove. At Verbove, moreover, they created a breach 2.5 kilometers wide. This was accomplished with soldiers overcoming tank trenches on foot and removing dragon's teeth, which is a huge job. Ukraine, meanwhile, also carried out constant bombardments of Russian positions. "Near Verbove, though, they have not yet managed to advance to the next line because the Russians are resisting pretty well there. The question now is whether the Ukrainians can reach Melitopol before winter. That is now their main objective on that axis of attack. Thus, they would interrupt Russian supply lines from Crimea, contributing to Crimea's isolation."

Isn't the offensive in danger of stalling now that the mud of autumn and the frost of winter are coming?
"That's guessing. The rain in autumn usually makes it too muddy for the armor and tanks. The frost then allows those vehicles to run in the winter. But due to climate change, there is a chance that the rains will come later and there will not be enough frost. Operations will not shut down in winter, but it will be slower because of the cold and rain."

Aren't the Russian counteractions also a lot less successful than the Kremlin hoped?
"Indeed. The Russians are not succeeding in stopping the Ukrainian offensive, they are succeeding in slowing it down. They have their defenses in the south reasonably well in place. But their counterattacks at Kuyansk, at Zaporizhzhya and at Bakhmut have been stalled. This is because they have few precision weapons and are poorly organized. They have poorly trained their people, the bureaucracy is cumbersome and in terms of logistics they do not have their affairs in order. "And above all: the strong motivation that the Ukrainians do have is lacking in the Russian soldiers. They do not see the point of this war. But anyone who knows Russian military history knows that such soldiers continue to fight slavishly anyway. The West has lost sight of that. Nevertheless, 'Know your enemy as yourself!' is of great importance in war."

You indicate that the West is too slow in providing support. But a lot has already been realized, hasn't it?
"Yes, but Ukraine is facing a superpower that can militarize a huge potential of people. Ukraine cannot do that and really has to rely on the quality of their weapons and their timely delivery. That is where the West regularly fails to deliver. Germany still hasn't decided on the Taurus (long-range precision weapons, BDB) and F-16s from Belgium are now also uncertain (the army top brass previously deemed it impossible, but the option is still being explored, BDB), the US is dragging its feet over the ATACMS. "That wavering plays into Putin's hands. Who knows that if he just persists, the West will hesitate even more. The West also failed to train Ukrainian civilians. They had to become trained soldiers within six weeks, which is far too short."

Is Western criticism of the slow Ukrainian offensive misplaced?
"It could be more modest. It is rather easy from the comfort of your armchair to lecture this country. It is facing a superpower, must try to lose as few targets as possible, and is therefore cautious. It is too arrogant and patronizing to say impatiently that things are going too slowly. Besides, what do you think you would achieve by doing that? In the long run, more and more people might think, 'This support is pointless.'"
https://www.demorgen.be/oorlog-in-oe...sief~bd5232f6/

Putin appointed new general (Элон Маск) for Crimea.


While others are making declarations relating to the future, we are acting in consultation with the Ukrainian side. The first Leopard tanks (The first Leopard 2A4 which was damaged at the front.) refurbished at Bumar-Labędy (Poland) have been received by the Ukrainian side, work continues on the next vehicles. https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...44237314269573

Russia's Gas Production Collapses to Late-Stage USSR Levels

Russian gas production so far this year has slumped to levels not seen since the 1970s. The country's state energy giant Gazprom said in its latest report that gas production in the first half of 2023 was 179.45 billion cubic meters (bcm). Gazprom added that this represents a year-on-year decrease of nearly a quarter (24.7 percent), and a 26.5 percent drop in gas supplies to the domestic and foreign markets... https://www.newsweek.com/russia-gas-...levels-1831087

Originally Posted by Catfish

"Moscow sees forecast confirmed – Kremlin cheers - USA drops Ukraine"

If anyone stops supporting Ukraine we will have a russio-european war in the next decade.

As for the support of Poland and Slovakia both countries gone sell ammo and repair for Ukraine those industries they need to keep up their economy so their rhetoric of we do not ... is rhetoric when it comes to earning money.

[mapuc]

Markus

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

When I read between the lines in what some of our politicians are saying about giving military aid to Ukraine, is that they don't want Russia to win the war.

What about China-Are they interested in a defeated Russia ?

Markus

[Dargo]

The European Union has reached a consensus regarding Ukraine's membership in the bloc, which is "only a matter of time," Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Oct. 2, as reported by European Pravda. "Everyone is determined to move forward with maximum speed, considering all the reforms that Ukraine has carried out, is carrying out, and will carry out," Kuleba said at a press conference following a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Kyiv... https://kyivindependent.com/kuleba-e...embership-bid/

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

When I read between the lines in what some of our politicians are saying about giving military aid to Ukraine, is that they don't want Russia to win the war.

What about China-Are they interested in a defeated Russia ?

Markus

Do not think China would want that this would weaken their anti-Western policy.

[Ostfriese]

China very likely doesn't want either side to win. A protacted war would offer them the most - Russia weakened, the West distracted.

[tonschk]

America’s Withdraw and Step Back on Ukraine Aid Puts Europe in a Bind

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/as-...-help-b3e899aa

Europe keeps Kyiv’s budget afloat, but its weapons arsenals can’t fill a shortfall if U.S. supplies wane


European Union foreign ministers met in Ukraine on Monday in a rare gathering outside the bloc. The ministers pledged solidarity with Kyiv after the U.S. passed a stopgap funding measure omitting aid for Ukraine.


KYIV, Ukraine—European leaders face a question they had hoped to avoid: If the U.S. steps back from leading Western support for Ukraine, could they fill the gap?


.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Ostfriese

China very likely doesn't want either side to win. A protacted war would offer them the most - Russia weakened, the West distracted.

Interesting, never saw it this way...A war which keeps on year in year out-A win for the Chinese.

No Europe can not fill in the missing gap if USA withdraw from helping Ukraine military...

Now is it in EU(Europe's interest) to see a Winning Russia ?

Of course not-So what is the solution to this problem ?

European soldiers in Ukraine ?

Not now, maybe in a couple of years from now.

Markus

[Skybird]

This is a week of good signals for Putin.

1. The US will at least in the forseeable time no longer give financial support to Ukraine.
2. In Slovakia, a Putin-friend has won the election.
3. Hungary since always and Poland since latest have raised questions marks on the EU support for Ukraine. They even did not attend EU's foreign ministers meeting in Kyiv. (Two other that were missing, missed due to Corona infection).

Additionally

4. Hungary still blocks Sweden's NATO membership. Turkey has said it will support it, but its still not passed.

The message to Putin: just hold on, passes time comes win. Russia's economy, often claimed close to death, grows. The Ruble and Yuan regimes spread in the world. The dollar is in retreat, slowly, but constantly. Russia has shown to be economically resilient, it does not collapse, it has adapted, the sanctions hurt a bit, but do not wreck it, and Putin has switched the country to full war production - something the Europeans still are too dumb and too stupid to even consider.

Meanwhile the offensive of Ukraine has overcome three defence lines - without anything further having come from that so far, the russians nevertheless seem to have somewhat locked them down in place and endlessly delay their further advance, causing slow bleed-out.

The tides are turning again. Against Ukraine. Last year I said that nearing the end of 2023 the West will start loosing interest. And that is what is happening now. Zelenski may not have been given his good-bye yet, but some have started to demonstratingly throw glances at where his coat hangs.

And Europe? Is about to miss the closing window of opportunity, by its own fault, by its own endless hesitating, by its own stupidity.

Things do not go well. Putin can win this, his chances have grown. Not next year, but at the end of this all. Solidarity with Ukaine is crumbling. Thats what he played for.

[Jimbuna]

[Catfish]

^ ^ Are you sure you mean Slovenia. Betonov will not be amused
All else is, unfortunately, correct.

[Jimbuna]