Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[tonschk]

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https://www.economist.com/leaders/20...urse-is-needed

The war in Ukraine has repeatedly confounded expectations. It is now doing so again. The counter-offensive that began in June was based on the hope that Ukrainian soldiers, equipped with modern Western weapons and after training in Germany, would recapture enough territory to put their leaders in a strong position at any subsequent negotiations.

This plan is not working. Despite heroic efforts and breaches of Russian defences near Robotyne, Ukraine has liberated less than 0.25% of the territory that Russia occupied in June. The 1,000km front line has barely shifted. Ukraine’s army could still make a breakthrough in the coming weeks, triggering the collapse of brittle Russian forces. But on the evidence of the past three months, it would be a mistake to bank on that.

[Skybird]

For once a good link by tschonk, I was just about posting it myself.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

For once a good link by tschonk, I was just about posting it myself.

Now, if the Ukrainians got what they asked for wouldn't this be a gamechanger in their offensive ?

From what I have read the Ukrainian has only got less than half of what they asked for.

Then we have the manpower-Here they have to fix this by them self.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Now, if the Ukrainians got what they asked for wouldn't this be a gamechanger in their offensive ?

From what I have read the Ukrainian has only got less than half of what they asked for.

Then we have the manpower-Here they have to fix this by them self.

Markus

No warfare has no Holy Writ planning an offensive can always go horrible wrong same as it did in WWI, WWII and other wars the plans did not bring the result they wanted to achieve for several reasons. This goes for both sides, mistakes are made Russia did not expect the Ukraine spirit to resist (If they looked at their own history they could know this.) Ukraine did not expect the Surovikin line so heavily mined and costly to break. War is not a matter of destroying the enemy materially and physically (although that may play a role), but of unsettling the enemy psychologically (the psyche of the enemy leaders, therefore, becomes a centre of gravity).

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

Russians use their artillery sparringly due to shortage of barrels

"As artillery officers from the headquarters of the Northern Military District told us, now the artillery barrel production resource is about 80%, and this explains the low artillery support of our defending units. They save the resource of barrels to deter the enemy in the event of a big breakthrough.

New barrels are not arriving, since the technology for their mass production is almost lost. Now they are removing barrels from equipment that is located at storage bases that have a service life of at least 50%.

Of course, we will fulfill our tasks, but where is the role and place of Shoigu-Gerasimov in forecasting this issue before the start of the SVO.

Now, because of this miscalculation, the guys are paying with their lives, and the troops have switched from offensive to defensive." https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/statu...2vGk0GkDA&s=19

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Does Putin really think Russians are THAT gullible?

In a move that has left many scratching their heads, Russian state media recently aired a video praising President Vladimir Putin's policies in Kaliningrad.
The catch? The footage was actually of the Polish city of Elblag, not Kaliningrad.

This isn't the first time Russian state media has made such a glaring mistake. From false claims about shooting down 'shadow missiles' to manipulated photos of deceased soldiers, the list is growing.

But this latest incident has many wondering: does Putin really think Russians are that gullible? [...]

After seeing what russian anchormen spill out in russian tv and what some russian moms said about their sons who died (despising them! and saying something like "I will breed more so the war can be won") i honestly think russians are becoming insane.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Russians use their artillery sparringly due to shortage of barrels

"As artillery officers from the headquarters of the Northern Military District told us, now the artillery barrel production resource is about 80%, and this explains the low artillery support of our defending units. They save the resource of barrels to deter the enemy in the event of a big breakthrough.

New barrels are not arriving, since the technology for their mass production is almost lost. Now they are removing barrels from equipment that is located at storage bases that have a service life of at least 50%.

Of course, we will fulfill our tasks, but where is the role and place of Shoigu-Gerasimov in forecasting this issue before the start of the SVO.

Now, because of this miscalculation, the guys are paying with their lives, and the troops have switched from offensive to defensive." https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/statu...2vGk0GkDA&s=19

Haven't Russia made some agreement with North Korea ? Seem to recall something about NK sending lots of shells to Russia.

Markus

[Exocet25fr]

Russia's Medvedev promises new conquests as Zelenskyy aims to attract arms allies

"By defending our fellow citizens in Donbass and ‘New Russia’, we are defending Russia itself and fighting for our homeland, our sovereignty, for our spiritual values ​​and our unity,” Putin said.

At the end of September 2022, after the organisation of so-called ‘referendums’ deemed fictitious by Kiev and the West, Vladimir Putin approved the annexation of the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Lugansk in the east, as well as those of Zaporizhia and Kherson in the south.

These annexations have triggered condemnation from Ukraine and its Western supporters, who consider them to be “illegal”.

30 September was declared as a “reunification day” by Vladimir Putin.

However, Russia only partially controls these regions and faces a counter-offensive from Ukraine, which seeks to retake them.


https://www.euronews.com/2023/09/30/...vances-in-bakh

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

From what I have read the Ukrainian has only got less than half of what they asked for.

Not even that. Depending on weapon category, they got short of a third to just one fifth of what Salushnji asked for.

They have a manpower problem, too, no doubt. They fight against a high numerical superiority of Russian troops, with Russia having a much bigger population.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Not even that. Depending on weapon category, they got short of a third to just one fifth of what Salushnji asked for.

They have a manpower problem, too, no doubt. They fight against a high numerical superiority of Russian troops, with Russia having a much bigger population.

If some of you are correct in what you have stated during our discussion, even Russia has a limitation on how many soldiers they can mobilize.

Putin would never take reserves from Moscow or St. Petersborg.

Even if Putin could take reserves from the entire country he need to keep an amount as a back-up reserve.
It would be suicide to send all you have of manpower into the war in Ukraine and let the backdoor be unguarded.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Haven't Russia made some agreement with North Korea ? Seem to recall something about NK sending lots of shells to Russia.

Markus

You can only shoot so many shells till barrels needs to replaced/refurbished their shortage of barrels and losing daily great numbers of artillery does not help Russia today.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

You can only shoot so many shells till barrels needs to replaced/refurbished their shortage of barrels and losing daily great numbers of artillery does not help Russia today.

I stand corrected-Never gave it a thought

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

If some of you are correct in what you have stated during our discussion, even Russia has a limitation on how many soldiers they can mobilize.

Putin would never take reserves from Moscow or St. Petersborg.

Even if Putin could take reserves from the entire country he need to keep an amount as a back-up reserve.
It would be suicide to send all you have of manpower into the war in Ukraine and let the backdoor be unguarded.

Markus

Note on those new conscripts they are not sent to Ukraine directly after training, they need themselves sign contract to go. Finnish border ‘pretty empty’ of Russian troops, says Helsinki, so that tells you a lot of the effect of the Russian forces this is not only on the Finland borders btw. you can have a thousand of soldiers in the fight but when you lead them bad or do not provide them with the needed tools and support they can not win how many you send Russia has lost this long ago it only delaying its defeat. Russia can never win in Ukraine if in a scenario they would Russia would bleed to dead securing it and for its economic rebuild Ukraine would guerrilla Russia for decades (They did this after WWII for years against the mighty Red Army even after Stalin's dead Ukraine will never surrender).

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Note on those new conscripts they are not sent to Ukraine directly after training, they need themselves sign contract to go. Finnish border ‘pretty empty’ of Russian troops, says Helsinki, so that tells you a lot of the effect of the Russian forces this is not only on the Finland borders btw. you can have a thousand of soldiers in the fight but when you lead them bad or do not provide them with the needed tools and support they can not win how many you send Russia has lost this long ago it only delaying its defeat. Russia can never win in Ukraine if in a scenario they would Russia would bleed to dead securing it and for its economic rebuild Ukraine would guerrilla Russia for decades (They did this after WWII for years against the mighty Red Army even after Stalin's dead Ukraine will never surrender).

Sounds like they are in a deadlock, where both side hasn't what it need to win the war in the near future or never.

And I must say time is against Ukraine-I read more and more negative comment among my friends when it comes to give aid to Ukraine.

Markus