US Politics Thread 2021-24

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

I heard you have to sign some form when you travel to the US, with one question being "Do you intend to kill the president?"
Does this form change regularly?

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Catfish

I heard you have to sign some form when you travel to the US, with one question being "Do you intend to kill the president?"
Does this form change regularly?

I’ve been involved in immigration enforcement before and that’s a new one on me, so I seriously doubt it. But we do have on average 6,900 immigrants crossing our southern border everyday. You could ask them.

[mapuc]

Very soon there will be no American politics to discuss- US government is facing a shutdown. If they can't agree on raising how much they may borrow-To pay the wages and bills.

Markus

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Very soon there will be no American politics to discuss- US government is facing a shutdown. If they can't agree on raising how much they may borrow-To pay the wages and bills.

Markus

Payday is on the 29th of Sept if shut down occurs it will be on the 1st of Oct. I kinda think there will be continuing resolutions before that to keep most of it open for business. That’ll give’em two more weeks before the next payday to iron out the rest of it. It’s a cryin’ shame they can’t figure this out sooner though. It’s even more of a shame media doesn’t do anything to inform citizens what’s in the bill they’re actually arguing over. All we get to see in the news is the party drama, bad behavior and name calling.

[Buddahaid]

Trumps business license certificates for NY have been cancelled and the businesses are to go into receivership.

https://themessenger.com/politics/ne...-letitia-james

[Torvald Von Mansee]

Originally Posted by Buddahaid

Trumps business license certificates for NY have been cancelled and the businesses are to go into receivership.

https://themessenger.com/politics/ne...-letitia-james

[Otto Harkaman]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Very soon there will be no American politics to discuss- US government is facing a shutdown. If they can't agree on raising how much they may borrow-To pay the wages and bills.

Markus

This is where politics and money meet, were things are decided by political clout influencing fiscal decisions, brinkmanship is just part of the game. Its not a crisis, its an important moment for governance.

[Rockstar]

It's the election 2024 variant.

Main symptoms are similar to the common cold and may include universal mail-in ballots.



Seems we should expect even more rate hikes, bank and small business closures, IMO eventually leading to one or maybe a small number of centralized banks such as JPMorgan, BoA, Chase making it easier regulate and control. Also, Powell made the statement inflation is well anchored, meaning this trashed economy isnÂ’t over by a long shot.

Kevin O’Leary Says a Coming Real Estate Collapse Will Lead to ‘Chaos’ — Here’s What You Need To Know

Story by Gabrielle Olya

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/real...1hcjo1#image=1

“Shark Tank” star Kevin O’Leary believes that the commercial real estate sector is on the brink of collapse, and will bring with it ripple effects that will be detrimental to investors and small business owners. He expanded on this “unique situation” while appearing on a recent episode of “Kudlow.”

The Shift Away From In-Person Work Will Lead To More Bank Failures

Although many large-scale companies are shifting back to in-office work, many small businesses are not making this return. This means that many office buildings are remaining vacant.

“Many of these office spaces are in sub-grade markets, but even in cities like Boston, you find lots of vacancies — up to 40% of buildings,” O’Leary said. “The challenge is, in every other real estate cycle when you have a correction — which is about to happen here because of rising rates — we’ve got to refinance these buildings. Many of them have no equity left in them.”

This will cause serious issues for the regional banks that are invested in these buildings.

“These banks are going to fail because up to 40% of their portfolio is in commercial real estate,” O’Leary said.

Commercial Real Estate Will Need To Be Converted for Other Uses — but This Can Be Challenging

O’Leary said we are in a “unique” situation right now because the commercial real estate market is not expected to ever bounce back to where it was pre-pandemic.

“What’s unique, that’s just coming onto the radar screen, [is that] most of these cannot be used again as office [space] because the economy has changed,” he said. “No one saw this coming. But up to 40% of people that work in small businesses don’t return to offices anymore. So we have to repurpose this.”

OÂ’Leary notes that these properties could theoretically be converted into storage spaces or even housing, but this is easier said than done.

“You can’t do that without zoning changes and policy [changes],” he said. “It’s very difficult. So it may be better long term to actually tear these buildings down and rebuild [them for a] new purpose — data centers, industrial climate-controlled storage. That’s where we have to do it, but who’s going to pay for it? That’s what the question is because we’re talking about a trillion dollars in aggregate here. So there’s big problems and it’s going to manifest itself in these regional [banks] over the next 36 months.”

OÂ’Leary also noted that many of these buildings are no longer economically viable.

“Most of these buildings were built over the last 30 years and [have mortgages with] interest rates of less than 4%,” he said. “Now the Fed has raised rates to 5.5% terminal rate, which means these mortgages are going to be refinanced at 9% to 11% — so a 3x cost. So many of these buildings won’t be economically viable.”

The Issues With Commerical Real Estate Will Hurt Small Business Owners

As regional banks feel the effects of the commercial real estate collapse, this will be carried over to small business owners who normally seek loans from these banks.

“The spin-off, which is causing chaos right now, is those loan books at those regional banks,” O’Leary said. “Regional banks have closed to small businesses because they have capital call requirements, put on them because of the pressure on this commercial real estate, so they’re not making loans. […] So we’ve got the pressure at the regional banks, commercial real estate collapse and small business not getting any capital. This is all bad news.”

Since 1979, wages for the bottom 90% of earners had grown just 15%.

For the top 1%, it increased 138% for the top 1%, per the Economic Policy Institute.

CEO pay slightly declined in 2022

But it has soared 1,209.2% since 1978 compared with a 15.3% rise in typical workersÂ’ pay

By Josh Bivens and Jori Kandra • September 21, 2023

Overview • Read the Report

Summary: CEO pay dipped in 2022 but remains enormous compared with the pay of other workers. CEOs are granted massive compensation packages by corporate boards because of their bargaining power, not because of their skills. CEOsÂ’ exorbitant payouts have far outpaced the pay of typical workers over decades.

Key findings

CEO pay is linked strongly to the stock market—and market declines in 2022 led to an uncharacteristic dip in CEO pay.

Cumulatively, however, from 1978–2022, top CEO compensation shot up 1,209.2% compared with a 15.3% increase in a typical worker’s compensation.

In 2022, CEOs were paid 344 times as much as a typical worker in contrast to 1965 when they were paid 21 times as much as a typical worker.

To illustrate just how distorted CEO pay increases have gotten: In 2021, CEOs made nearly eight times as much as the top 0.1% of wage earners in the U.S.

Why this matters

Exorbitant CEO pay is not just a symbolic issue—it has contributed to rising inequality. CEOs are getting paid more because of their leverage over corporate boards, not because of contributions they make to their firms. Escalating CEO pay in recent decades has likely pulled up the pay of other top earners. This concentration of earnings at the top leaves fewer gains for ordinary workers.

How to fix it

Policies that limit CEOsÂ’ ability to collude with corporate boards to extract excessive compensation are needed to prevent the U.S. from becoming a winner-take-all society. These policies could include reinstating higher income tax rates at the very top, using tax policy to incentivize lower CEO pay, allowing shareholders to vote on CEO compensation, and using antitrust enforcement and regulation to rein in the market power of the largest firms.

Couple that to deficit spending, the FED printing money willynilly in turn devaluing the dollar thereby causing inflation and some states basically allowing it to happen

You get this

[mapuc]

Saw a video clip from Philadelphia, where a group of people was looting some stores and then the police came and started to "trying" to arrest some of the looters.

Is it only Afro-Americans who does this ? 'cause there were only people with dark skins in the video.

Markus

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Saw a video clip from Philadelphia, where a group of people was looting some stores and then the police came and started to "trying" to arrest some of the looters.

Is it only Afro-Americans who does this ? 'cause there were only people with dark skins in the video.

Markus

Free IPhones!

[mapuc]

I've lost all respect for these people.

The riot/looting should be due to some shooting by the police in a traffic control.

If they had demonstrated in normal order-I would have respected them, however this behavior is a scandal.

Markus

[Rockstar]

OH My look at all the Sanctuary City bleeding heart virtue signaling Democrat XENOPHOBES up in arms crying about the horrors of migrants being shipped to their neighborhoods. Your rally to stop the wall done bit ya’all in the arse, didn’t it?

[Rockstar]

Makes sense to me. Betcha he gets indicted next. lol




Compared to Democrat Fetterman’s insights.

“The Chinese government and other US adversaries should own zero, zero agricultural land in our country. I believe that.”

“I mean, they're taking back our pandas. You know, we should take back all their farmland.”

[Gorpet]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Saw a video clip from Philadelphia, where a group of people was looting some stores and then the police came and started to "trying" to arrest some of the looters.

Is it only Afro-Americans who does this ? 'cause there were only people with dark skins in the video.

Markus

No, It's Americans and since your a NATO member we are going to send you some Americanisms.And we expect to see some videos back.

[Rockstar]

The reality of Bidenomics

Biden Economic Advisors Are Economically Illiterate

FX HEDGE
SEP 26, 2023

Biden administration spin doctor Jared Berstein is at it again, demonstrating his complete ignorance of both economic theory and fact — an alarming trait for the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers. Yet, we shouldn’t be surprised since Berstein isn’t even an economist; his degrees are in music, philosophy, and social work.

Don’t be shocked – when has this administration ever hired any competent people?

Berstein’s role seems to be less an advisor to the president than an advisor to the press, handing out talking points which the willing sycophants can spout each day about how great the economy is. “Don’t believe your lying eyes or your empty wallets, folks – come on, man!” Things are going swimmingly, and inflation is just a conspiracy, as AOC now says.

So, we’re left with a radical disconnect: an administration that touts isolated economic numbers and conspicuously narrow measurements, versus a two-thirds disapproval of the economy and horrific survey data, including consumer sentiment, confidence, and expectations.

It’s very simple to reconcile the disconnect: Berstein and other Biden administration officials are manipulating data and often flat-out lying.

A prime example is Mr. Bernstein’s whitewashing of our nation’s burgeoning credit card debt, which has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time. Even as interest rates soar, Americans are increasingly relying on credit cards to make ends meet. Ordinarily, higher interest rates discourage credit utilization and people pay more (or all) of their credit charges each month fall because it’s too expensive to carry a balance



The fact that we’ve seen the opposite today speaks to the desperate situation of the consumer. Because real earnings have fallen so precipitously, people are relying on credit cards to maintain their standard of living. And it’s not yachts and caviar driving the spending for most Americans, but necessities. In fact, multiple financing companies have popped up in the last year that only make loans for groceries – people literally can’t afford to eat.

So, now we have a situation where people are spending more than they earn, and therefore can’t afford to pay their credit card balances each month. That causes their balance to steadily grow. But with rising interest rates, their balances are skyrocketing because the financing charges are exploding. If people couldn’t pay off their entire balance, they certainly can’t pay the interest too.

For example, most Americans don’t have enough savings to cover a $400 emergency, so let’s start there and put it on the credit card. The typical American family’s weekly paycheck has ballooned $230 under the Biden administration, but it buys $100 less, leaving a monthly deficit of $430. Let’s assume the family cuts back $230 per month, which means we’re running a monthly deficit of $200.

That deficit is the amount on the credit card we can’t afford to pay off, so it’s added to the balance each month. All we can afford is the minimum payment, but at least we avoid penalties. If the credit card still had a low rate, the balance would be just under $2,900 after one year.

But rates aren’t low anymore – they’re at record highs. Now, the card’s balance is $3,400 after 12 months, $500 more in interest compared to when rates were low. We’re already running a $200 monthly deficit, so there’s no hope of paying an additional $500 on top of it.

But when confronted with these facts, Mr. Bernstein brushes them off, claiming that the financing costs for consumers have declined relative to disposable personal income, which is not true.

To facilitate his lie, Berstein performs two sleights of hand. First, he compares today to pre-pandemic levels, because if he compared today to when Biden took office, the data would show we’re worse off. But, by including the last year of the Trump administration, Berstein can take credit for his predecessor’s success.

Second, Berstein switches from his original claim to comparing disposable personal income with credit card debt levels, but not credit card financing costs. While $1 trillion in credit card debt is alarming, it’s apples and oranges to compare a stock (credit card debt) to a flow (income).

To illustrate, imagine if instead of paying your mortgage off in 30 years, you had to do it in just one. The former is probably affordable, and the latter almost certainly isn’t. That’s because the flow of mortgage payments is less than the flow of your income in the former case, but more than your income in the latter case. But in both instances, the stock of your mortgage debt was identical.

The graph below shows Berstein’s silly comparison of credit card debt as a portion of disposal personal income via the dashed blue line. Today, it is a fraction of 1% less than the pre-pandemic ratio, demonstrating that Berstein is technically correct about his nonsensical comparison. But the solid green line adjusts credit card balances for the interest rate, transforming the stock into a flow, and making the comparison to income actually meaningful.



Two things immediately just out because of this transformation. Going from left to right, the first two years of the Trump administration had lower financing costs on credit card debt relative to incomes because interest rates were low. As rates rose, the same proportion of debt to income caused financing costs to rise 25% relative to the rise in incomes.

In other words, credit card financing charges ballooned not because credit card debt rose relative to incomes, but because interest rates rose. But that jump is nothing compared to what’s happened under Biden. The faster rate hikes to combat 40-year-high inflation have sent credit card interest rates to record highs. In about the last year, financing costs on credit cards have exploded 40% relative to incomes.

When you compare apples to apples, you get a better sense of what’s truly going on. People are genuinely hurting because they are getting trapped into financial death spirals of burgeoning credit card debt. The speed at which this is escalating is clear from the graph and that helps explain the very rapid rise in nonperforming credit card debt, meaning delinquencies and defaults.

Like the stock vs. flow discussion, credit card nonperformance hasn’t gotten a lot of attention because the level is still very low, having been artificially depressed for three years but all kinds of fiscal and monetary stimulus as well as various debt repayment moratoria, all of which left consumers flush with cash. But although the level is still low from a historical perspective, it is rising fast – very fast.

But that’s no concern for Berstein and the rest of the Biden administration since there’s no good way to spin rising rates of credit card default. We’ll just brush that under the rug and hope it “seasonally adjusts” out at a future date…