Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

https://www.nzz.ch/international/nor...&_x_tr_sl=auto

Translation do not work.

For me it's no problem what is readable the rest is behind a sign-up-wall.

I thought it was Nord Stream 1 who got blown up

Edit
it was both
End edit

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Translation do not work.

Aaaaaaah.....
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Who is behind the Nord Stream 2 blow-up? The trail leads increasingly clearly to Ukraine, but German experts and politicians remain skeptical

The Ukrainian army is said to have planned the attack on the pipeline - American and German intelligence services were informed months beforehand. Did the German government fail to protect critical infrastructure?

"Ukraine is the prime suspect." That was the assumption of a former senior official of Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the BND, on May 25. In a background interview with journalists, he addressed the attacks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines last September. The former intelligence man cited his contacts in the security agencies, which he said were now investigating almost exclusively in that direction some nine months after the blast.

Russia's motives are weak, he said, and it would make more sense for Ukraine to blow up the pipeline: Moscow's main source of foreign currency would thus be drained, and the EU's most powerful member, Germany, would be forever disengaged from its fatal energy partnership with Russia.

An article published on Tuesday evening European time by the "Washington Post" supports this assessment: With reference to the so-called Pentagon Leaks, the American newspaper reported that an unnamed European intelligence service is said to have learned from a source in the Ukrainian general staff three months before the explosions about a Ukrainian plan to blow up the Nord Stream 1 pipeline in June 2022. The CIA was then informed, he said, and in turn shared the knowledge with the German government.
However, intelligence and maritime security experts warn against jumping to conclusions. It remains completely unclear whether Ukraine was behind the attacks. German foreign policy experts from government and opposition parties echo these doubts - and warn against possible Russian disinformation.
Gerhard Conrad, a former senior BND official, believes that the research by the Washington Post has a high degree of credibility. "The fact that there was a detailed report on a Ukrainian plan to carry out an attack on Nord Stream 1 in June is, in my view, now sufficiently proven," Conrad tells the NZZ. "This is additional evidence, but nothing more. In the end, as we know, the plan was not carried out in June."

Conrad adds that there are still strong indications that Russia was involved in the act. For example, he says, a Russian ship with special equipment for underwater operations had been in the vicinity of the explosion site just a few days earlier for no apparent reason and with its transponder turned off. Also, from Ukraine's point of view, it would make little sense to completely destroy Nord Stream 1 but leave one leg of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline intact.
This is also pointed out by frigate captain Göran Swistek, who today works as an expert on maritime security for the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. He still considers the Russian state a likely perpetrator. At the beginning of investigations after terrorist attacks, he says, the question always arises as to who has the capabilities and motivation for such an operation.

When it comes to capabilities, everything points first to Russia: "For example, Russia has invested massively in the development of underwater drones in recent years and has shown a strong interest in mapping the North and Baltic Seas," Swistek says in the interview. "In addition, blasting required specific expertise in pipelines, which was most readily available in Russia."
When asked about motivation, Swistek also believes Russian involvement is more likely: "Russia had a specific interest. Chaos in the energy markets before winter and uncertainty in European societies." For Ukraine, on the other hand, there was a clear disproportion between effort and return.

In an interview with the NZZ, the foreign policy spokesman of the FDP parliamentary group in the German Bundestag, Ulrich Lechte, also questions the benefits: "Why should Ukraine have attacked the pipeline at a time when the Germans were already supplying Kiev with weapons, no more gas was running through Nord Stream 1 and politicians were already announcing that they would look for alternatives to Russian gas?"

Lechte does not want to rule out anything in principle in the case. But the foreign policy expert considers the variant that Ukraine is supposed to have initiated the detonation "completely absurd." Especially since this took place at a time when the whole of Europe was supporting the country.

"We must not forget that Russian intelligence services in particular are currently pursuing advanced Cold War forms of work - with disinformation and false-flag operations," warns former BND employee Gerhard Conrad.
"It is even conceivable, and thus first to be clarified, that the alleged Ukrainian plan was Russian disinformation fed as game material to the European intelligence service cited by the 'Washington Post' in order to steer the trail of its own later attack on Ukraine," Conrad explains. "The script for the attack would then have been written in Moscow itself right away and implemented with modifications at the operationally appropriate time."

CDU member of the Bundestag Roderich Kiesewetter also points this out: "The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine is also an information war," says the opposition politician. "It may be that false leads were deliberately laid. That's why I advise caution."
So whether Ukraine carried out the attack or not remains doubtful. But one thing is almost certainly clear: the German government was aware of a plan to blow up the pipelines three months before the attack. Why didn't it act?
"After the intelligence reports became known, the government could have shown a stronger presence with warships, but also with ships of the Federal Police," says former frigate captain Swistek. "In addition, the German government could have exerted political influence on Ukraine."

Gerhard Conrad agrees. The former employee of Germany's foreign intelligence service suspects that, after dutifully informing the Parliamentary Control Committee, the German government probably hoped for the best and trusted that Ukrainian plans would remain "on hold," as the cited intelligence report puts it. "For other measures, moreover, it would have been imperative to have the agreement of the European service, which led the possible source in the Ukrainian General Staff and was responsible for its security."

FDP foreign policy expert Lechte concedes that Germany could possibly have intensified surveillance measures in the Baltic Sea, but he cannot see a fundamental failure on the part of the German government. "Anyone who knows the business of intelligence services knows that sometimes false information is deliberately fed into the system," says the FDP politician. "If politicians were to act immediately after every such report as if it were the truth, we would have hopeless chaos in the world."

Even after the sensational "Washington Post" report, the public is as smart as ever about the fundamental aspects of the Nord Stream sabotage. Frigate Captain Göran Swistek hopes that examinations of the explosives detected by Swedish investigators will help clarify the origin of the perpetrators. Still, he remains skeptical: "I don't believe we'll get a clear picture in the coming days and weeks."

[NZZ German Link]
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What would be interesting to know is whether the remaining fourth pipeline that did not blow up intentioanlly was spared, or whether it was tried to explode it but it failed for technical mishaps, or whether those doing the deed for some reason ran out of time at the end to complete the preparation.

[Skybird]

The flooding has consequences for the occupiers along the Dnjipro, they had to fall back by severla kilometers, and many of their minefields and entrenchements have been lost. I wonder how man such mines now are scattered across the landscape, wildly, uncharted, ending up in the most unsuspicous places.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

A group of Nato countries may be willing to put troops on the ground in Ukraine if member states including the US do not provide tangible security guarantees to Kyiv at the alliance’s summit in Vilnius, the former Nato secretary general Anders Rasmussen has said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...alliance-chief

Markus

[Dargo]

Ukraine launched attack at various points on the front, first Leopard 2 seen

There are increasing indications that the Ukrainian army has launched attacks in several locations to retake occupied territory. Russian military bloggers have been reporting heavy fighting at several locations along the southern frontline for the past three days. Meanwhile, the first photos of a modern Leopard 2 tank active on this southern frontline have also been published. These tanks have been donated to Ukraine by Western countries in recent months. Ukraine had already announced a major offensive to drive out the Russian army this spring, but for tactical reasons is not giving details of the plan of attack. Military analysts reckon that there will be heavy fighting, especially along the southern line between Kamjanske (on the Dnipro River) and Voehledar. A breakthrough on this line might allow the Ukrainian army to make an advance towards the occupied city of Melitopol and eventually launch an attack on Crimea as well.

Heavy fighting is now taking place on several fronts. On Thursday, there are many reports of attacks near Orichiv, just east of Kamjanske. Earlier this week, Ukraine carried out attacks on the front west of Voehledar. Fighting north near Bakhmut has also intensified in recent days. As far as is known, the waves of attacks have not yet resulted in extensive ground gains. Ukrainian citizens are urged not to share details on social media. As a result, most information about the attack waves has come from Russian military bloggers. These mostly extreme-nationalist bloggers are often critical of the Russian military. But their information, especially when there are reports of a Ukrainian advance, has so far often proved reliable. Several bloggers currently speak mainly of intense fighting in various locations. The offensive has begun, says former commander of the Dutch land forces Mart de Kruif. 'Indeed, we can say that we have already passed the initial phase of the offensive. In recent weeks, Ukraine already had operations deep behind the front to eliminate logistical hubs. Across the entire width of the front, the next phase is now beginning: fighting on and around trenches.' Ukraine's attack is also likely to involve newly delivered Western tanks. On Thursday, a pro-Russian Telegram channel published some images of a Leopard 2 tank. The drone footage shows a column of five vehicles, including two Leopard 2 tanks. The army vehicles were deployed near the town of Orichiv in Zaporizhzhya province on Wednesday. The location of the images has been verified and there are no indications that they have been tampered with.



Former commander De Kruif thinks he saw a Leopard 2A4, but does not dare say for sure. If it is true, says lieutenant colonel and engineer officer Carel Sellmeijer, you also have to wonder what it means. 'It could indicate that the Ukrainians are undertaking a serious attack there, but it could also be used for deception, so that the Russians actually think that the big offensive is taking place there, and they send a lot of army units to that spot.' https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-ach...zien~bdcd2124/

[Skybird]

I think all these attacks still are probing attacks only, to find a tasty weak spot. Its like it was expected to be in the beginning.
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Ukraine says Russian troops withdrew further than previously thought from their now flooded defence lines. Up to 15 km. Toxic mud is said to flow down the stream and settle on the gropund to poison the water going into the Black sea for long time to come. The losses in fertile farming ground are catastrophic, the toxinbes wander with the ground water and so affect also areas not flooded. The UN - I think it was the UN - said the losses of harvestable grains could be in the billions of tons.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I think all these attacks still are probing attacks only, to find a tasty weak spot. Its like it was expected to be in the beginning.
-------------
Ukraine says Russian troops withdrew further than previously thought from their now flooded defence lines. Up to 15 km. Toxic mud is said to flow down the stream and settle on the gropund to poison the water going into the Black sea for long time to come. The losses in fertile farming ground are catastrophic, the toxinbes wander with the ground water and so affect also areas not flooded. The UN - I think it was the UN - said the losses of harvestable grains could be in the billions of tons.

Lieutenant-Colonel Tom Simoens (Royal Military School, Brussels) also said this morning he could deduce from the reports "with a certain degree of certainty" that the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun. "It has been months since, from during the previous counter-offensives in the autumn of 2022, there was so much activity on the battlefield," he said. "The Russian sources may be colored, but they don't spread these reports for no reason either," Simoens said. Stepping up the attack now would also make the most sense from a Ukrainian point of view. "Since Monday, we already saw limited attacks with smaller numbers of soldiers and vehicles. Perhaps those were so-called 'probing attacks', small-scale attacks to 'test' Russian defenses. But it makes no sense to carry out those smaller attacks and then not follow through. So I don't expect them to slow down now."

At popular blog Wargonzo, it sounds that Ukraine deployed four battalions with at least 120 vehicles in its attacks last night. "After an immense artillery barrage (no exaggeration, it was really heavy, with Himars participating), four columns advanced towards our defensive lines, each with 25 to 30 vehicles." Tanks, aircraft and helicopters were also reportedly deployed in the process. Exactly how many brigades Ukraine is deploying is not yet clear. Perhaps not all troops and vehicles have yet been deployed, some of which are being held back as reserves anyway, and some of which will only be deployed in the later stages of the offensive to exploit the recaptured areas. Independent confirmation of the reports is also not yet available. Ukraine has maintained strict operational silence since this week to avoid harming the course of operations. According to the well-known Russian blog Wargonzo, most of last night's attacks were repelled "with heavy losses for Ukraine". Thus, images of Ukrainian armored cars and tanks are circulating, possibly involving Leopard 2 tanks from the West. Russian sources claim several tanks and vehicles were knocked out. In at least two places, Ukraine would have been able to force a breakthrough, though. The fortified positions would simply have been wiped out with artillery.

Still, Simoens warns that Ukrainian losses are also inevitable. "I expect thousands of casualties in the first days, including along the Ukrainian side. We are going to see destroyed Leopard tanks and US Bradley armored vehicles, and Russian propaganda channels are going to exploit those losses in an unprecedented way. Ukraine and the West need to prepare for that, but there is no other way. Offensives like this are the hardest thing in the world, no matter how hard Ukraine prepares. The Russians can set up a new minefield unseen at night, which Ukrainian tanks smash into in the morning. That is almost inevitable." https://www.demorgen.be/oorlog-in-oe...sief~b5fec8ce/

[Dargo]

'Ukrainian counteroffensive has erupted'

The Ukrainian army's long-awaited counteroffensive erupted in earnest last night. So say four sources in the army to The Washington Post. The offensive began with heavy shelling of Russian positions along the front line. A soldier stationed in Zaporizhzhya province spoke of "continuous heavy fighting". Russian military bloggers also reported heavy Ukrainian shelling and subsequent ground attacks last night. For now, the main Ukrainian offensive seems to be coming in Zaporizhzhya province, from Orichiv towards Tokmak. There, the Ukrainians have deployed Leopard 2 tanks, indicating their interest in this offensive.

Tokmak and further south, Melitopol had long been seen as very likely targets for a Ukrainian counteroffensive. If Kiev can capture those places and manage to reach the Black Sea coast, the Russian-occupied territory will be split in two. That will make supplying Russian units on the front significantly more difficult. 'It is very tough on the battlefield,' the Ukrainian soldier told The Washington Post. 'Our artillery and air force are deployed, but so are those of the Russians. It is difficult for us and for them. Our forces are advancing, but not as fast as we would have liked.' Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maljar writes on Telegram that the Russians have been forced onto the defensive near Orichiv. She also reports fighting in eastern Donetsk province, near Velyka Novosilka. Russian authorities say that all Ukrainian offensives in Zaporizhzhya have been repulsed, and the Ukrainians have suffered heavy losses. However, in previous successful Ukrainian offensives, similar reports came from Moscow, which later proved false.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I think all these attacks still are probing attacks only, to find a tasty weak spot. Its like it was expected to be in the beginning.
-------------
Ukraine says Russian troops withdrew further than previously thought from their now flooded defence lines. Up to 15 km. Toxic mud is said to flow down the stream and settle on the gropund to poison the water going into the Black sea for long time to come. The losses in fertile farming ground are catastrophic, the toxinbes wander with the ground water and so affect also areas not flooded. The UN - I think it was the UN - said the losses of harvestable grains could be in the billions of tons.

Russian military in that area did not know that the dam would be blown up Kremlin forgot or did not bother to send the memo.

[Dargo]

Norwegian independent seismic monitoring foundation NORSAR, who's primary mission is observing compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, saying seismic signals indicate there was an explosion at the Nova Kakhovka Dam.

"Data from regional seismic stations show clear signals on Tuesday 6 June at 2:54 local time... The time and place coincide with reports in the media about the collapse of the Kakhovka dam. The signals indicate that there is an explosion." Magnitude estimate is between 1 and 2.

The figure below shows the signal from the Bukovina (BURAR) seismic array, a measuring station in Romania. The distance from the dam is 620 km.


https://www-jordskjelv-no.translate...._x_tr_pto=wapp

[Dargo]

Air alert everywhere except Ternopil Oblast. Four Kalibr cruise missiles incoming to Kyiv, via Cherkasy Oblast, but air defenses working there, and explosions reported in Uman. Skies said to be clear, missiles shot down, expecting all-clear. https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/s...58738119061519

Russian MOD is really stupid, wasting cruise missiles on civilians rather than military targets.

[Jimbuna]

The Russians see civilian attacks as being more beneficial in terms of bringing pressure on the Ukraine command structure probably.