Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Catfish

The US effectively destroyed any russian leverage that was left via the Nordstream pipes.
Leaving the US with a lot more leverage via LNG deliveries.

If Russia just kept turning it off (without destroying it) it would make a bit more sense, don't you think so?
They could open the tap anytime if the EU states complied, now there is no leverage left.
And as Rockstar quoted, it was even announced.

I thought that this was a perfect false flag operation in order to accuse another country for being behind it. What country they will point finger at I don't know.

Markus

[Catfish]

Who do you mean with "they"?

[Skybird]

Der Spiegel reports that the CIA warned Berlin already in June. They would not have done so if the warning was of an American attack...

Again, catfish, Putin does not care for economy and needs of Russian people (he just has started to annihilate the Russian economy's workforce pool for the coming thirty years, if you have no noticed it). He now is "all in". He needs a destabilisation in Germany, and Europe. Therefore: no more gas sales. If the European poltical unity cannot be shaken by him, he is toast. No more gas sales. Not now. Not in the future. He is beyond that. Think of it as a point of no return.

Also, psychopath's logic. "The subject is disobedient. It needs to be punished." The harder, the better. Deep rooting narcissism, and offence/insult (Kränkung). Any psychiatrist and psychologist must get bright eyes when readig his case. The KGB did not promote him beyond a certain rank becaise its analysts assessed him to be incapable to fully forsee the consequences of his decisions and acting in the present. From that prspective it is surprising that he was able to play the Europeans against the wall for almost 20 years. The explanation for that however is less to be found in him, and more in the weaknesses of the Europeans.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Who do you mean with "they"?

They=Russia

Markus

[August]

Originally Posted by Catfish

The US effectively destroyed any russian leverage that was left via the Nordstream pipes.
Leaving the US with a lot more leverage via LNG deliveries.

Which might be called eliminating the competition I suppose but not "blackmail". Blackmail is threatening to do something if the victim doesn't pay or do something else you want them to do. Are you saying that Biden threatened your government that we would destroy the pipelines if they didn't pay their NATO dues or something and then actually did it when you continued to welsh on your alliance responsibilities or what?? Maybe there is something lost in translation here but I just don't see how what happened, if done by the USA, constitutes blackmail.

If Russia just kept turning it off (without destroying it) it would make a bit more sense, don't you think so?
They could open the tap anytime if the EU states complied, now there is no leverage left.
And as Rockstar quoted, it was even announced.

Not really, as the Russians never shut off the pipeline as a Punitive Action for Germany's assistance to Ukraine (what little there was of it), but rather they claimed that equipment failures were the cause of the disruption, reasons which were soon debunked. This provides them a solid justification for the long term shutdown and casts aspersions upon their enemy. Sounds like something they would do, don't you think so?

[Dargo]

Drones have apparently entered safety zones of several oil platforms more often recently. The Norwegian regulatory authority is now issuing an official warning. The Norwegian Oil Production Regulatory Authority has issued a warning about unidentified flying objects. Operators of oil rigs off the Norwegian coast are reported to have recently sighted several drones or other flying objects in safety zones, according to a statement from Petroleumstilsynet (PTIL).

Safety zones of 500 meters above, around and in the water exist for each of the rigs on the Norwegian continental shelf. Only aircraft or vehicles with permission are allowed to enter these. Apparently, this regulation has now been disregarded several times. The police are investigating, the statement says. At the rigs, drones could collide with helicopters operating there, PTIL warns. Also, aircraft without a special license could trigger explosions or collide with the oil rig, possibly even intentionally.

Norwegian oil rig operator Equinor had notified police this month of drone activity at at least three of its rigs, Norwegian online magazine Aldri Mer reported in mid-September. Flights by unknown objects had also been observed later. Among other places, the Johan Sverdrup, Gullfaks C and Snorre A oil fields were said to be affected.

Apparently, no serious incidents occurred. There is now speculation in the Norwegian media about the motives for the drone flights on oil rigs. Possibly they served to gather information, for example, for sabotage operations. According to vg.no, Norwegian military expert Lars Peder Haga argues that such reconnaissance flights in daylight so close to the drilling platforms appear amateurish.

https://www.heise.de/news/Norwegisch...n-7276936.html

[Dargo]

^ if these are the Russians, they're now trying to attack NATO energy supply.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by August

Which might be called eliminating the competition I suppose but not "blackmail". Blackmail is threatening to do something if the victim doesn't pay or do something else you want them to do. [...]

Well i'd say the US tried to blackmail and when bubble Olaf (tm by Skybird) did not comply, they created facts.
So they just did it when blackmail did not work. You might call it peaceful hegemony

Not really, as the Russians never shut off the pipeline as a Punitive Action for Germany's assistance to Ukraine (what little there was of it),

But Putin did exactly that.

[...] but rather they claimed that equipment failures were the cause of the disruption, reasons which were soon debunked.

Of course they als tried to blackmail, and when i look at Olaf Scholz it worked, probably due to his good relations to Russia

This provides them a solid justification for the long term shutdown and casts aspersions upon their enemy.

Yes but since everyone knows what is going on why should they destroy their only instrument of applying pressure to Europe?

Sounds like something they would do, don't you think so?

No i do not.

There is nothing to gain for Russia by destroying Nordstream when they can just cut it off by closing the taps.

It was announced, the US has the most advantage of it, and with or without Occam's razor it looks pretty clear.
There is of course one reason for Russia, to sow division in Nato of course, but they are not so dumb to think that any european country will leave Nato because of this US stunt?
Hey i do not even criticize it, US being US after all.

[mapuc]

Dargo wrote:

"According to vg.no, Norwegian military expert Lars Peder Haga argues that such reconnaissance flights in daylight so close to the drilling platforms appear amateurish."

A perfect cover-Act as amateur.

Markus

[Skybird]

Catfish, again: Putinis desperate, he cannot afford to waste effort son planning beyond the imminent present, because he struggles for mere suriovval. He must disrupt Europe NOW, or he is toast.

Also, it is pattern with Russia. They alway stry to fabricate a sitaiton that serves as an alibi for their own misdeeds. Everybody knows it, and so do they, still they always do that. The Siemens turbine was a fake excuse (not to deliver gas). The referendums are fake excuses (to russify parts oif Ukraine and then declare any attempt to rteclaim them as an attack on Russia). The broken pipeline is a fake excuse not to deliver gas now or later. And it is an excuse for trying to push diusputrting energy in Europoe without formally being held accountable - or can anyone prove that it were the Russians?

The future is something one does not care for if one's survival is threatened in the imminent, immediate, direct present. First things first.

[mapuc]

My Norwegian friend told me that The security around on/offshore installations have been maximised due to the pipeline sabotage and the observation of these drones.

Markus

[Catfish]

Maybe, or not.

It would be much more effective to cut the oil and gas being pumped from Russia to Europe via Ukraine. I expect Putin to do this soon, or later this winter, without blowing up the pipelines?

[Skybird]

Ah, nice illustraiton by Die welt: a Russian threat. "Look what happened to Nordstream, if you do not accept our landsteal in Ukraine, the same could happen to oil pipelines of yours."






The Russians have submarines equipped for detecting and in any way manipulating transatlantic cables, pipelines and such. It was reported already years ago.



I would give the US theory more probability if it were not Biden but Trump still being in the WH. As a matter of fact, Biden is more Europe-friendly (which does not mean he is Europe-friendly, he only is less Europe-hostile than Trump and less Europe- indifferent than Obama were, but Biden is America-first in all regards. Still it was him who saved the Germans from punishing US sanctions over Nordstream 2 last year. What he maybe regrets now...).

[HunterICX]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I would give the US theory more probability if it were not Biden but Trump still being in the WH. As a matter of fact, Biden is more Europe-friendly (which does not mean he is Europe-friendly, he only is less Europe-hostile than Trump and less Europe- indifferent than Obama were, but Biden is America-first in all regards. Still it was him who saved the Germans from punishing US sanctions over Nordstream 2 last year. What he maybe regrets now...).

Ehm.... about that:

[Skybird]

Not as invalid as I thought, i did not know the prject was finished. Die welt writes:

-----------------------

Government representatives from Poland, Denmark and Norway opened the new Baltic Pipe pipeline in the Baltic Sea on Tuesday. Natural gas is to flow through it from Norway via Denmark to Poland. In parallel, Germany and Denmark continued to search for the cause of three leaks in the Nord Stream pipelines under the Baltic Sea.

"The era of Russian domination of gas is coming to an end - an era marked by blackmail, threats and coercion," Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said at the symbolic inauguration of Baltic Pipe's compressor station in Goleniow near the Polish port city of Szczecin. Now, he said, a new era of energy sovereignty and freedom is beginning. It's about energy security, he said, but also in security in a broader sense: showing that solidarity can make the continent more secure.

"This day marks a crucial geopolitical step for all of us," said Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. Norway's Oil and Energy Minister Terje Aasland stressed that Russia's President Vladimir Putin wants to divide the West, but he is not succeeding.
--------------------

This project included or still incldues the plan to have US LNG gas from terminals in Denmark delivered to Poland. This is the other reason, a purely financial-economical one, why the Polish side was so bitterly against Nordstream 1 and 2 - these projects by the Germans threatened the gains in income and influence Poland hoped/hopes to achieve by that pipeline, because gas from this pipeline then should be distributed into Europe - via Poland.