Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

Der Tagesspiegel:

Measuring stations in Sweden and Denmark have recorded powerful detonations underwater before the Nord Stream gas leak in the Baltic Sea occurred, according to a media report. There is no doubt that these were blasts or explosions, seismologist Björn Lund of the Swedish Seismological Network (SNSN) told Swedish broadcaster SVT on Tuesday.

There were two distinct detonations in the area on Monday, the broadcaster reported, citing the network - one at 2:03 a.m. that night and a second at 7:04 p.m. that evening.

So far, however, the cause of the incidents has not been conclusively determined. However, there are indications of sabotage. If it was an attack, only a state actor could be considered in view of the technical effort involved, according to security sources.




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New on the mind: trans-atlantic cables, continental communication, pipelines... Well, not really new on the mind, more a reminder of how vulnerabel such infrastructure is. Russia has developed submarines designed to go after such cables and pipelines in the ocean bed, I read somewhere years ago.

It is also reported that the pipelines are both ruptured over a longer distance, not just punctually damaged.



One thing is certain, I think: there is no way going back.

[HunterICX]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Putin can't be far from going tactically nuclear now.

From starting World War 3 you mean, the world can't stand idle if nukes of any kind are used against people.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by HunterICX

From starting World War 3 you mean, the world can't stand idle if nukes of any kind are used against people.

Precisely so but the million dollar question is, will anyone react in a similar fashion....Medvedev for one certainly reckons not.

The only ones who can stop him are his senior generals and that would mean the end of his regime.

[August]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Putin can't be far from going tactically nuclear now.

You really think so? I'd think that tactical nukes would hurt his forces as much as it would hurt the Ukrainians and they would have to be employed in the very areas that he is trying to capture.

From what I see of the prevailing winds unless they were deployed well westward of the front line (like around Kiev itself), it would send the fallout right back into Russia.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Russia to open war enlisting hub on Georgia border

Russia is to open an army enlisting centre on the border with Georgia, where massive queues have formed as Russian men try to flee the country to avoid being sent to fight in Ukraine.

Officers at the Verkhniy Lars crossing will be tasked with serving summons to "citizens of the mobilisation age", the authorities say.

Recent satellite images have shown queues going for miles from Russia.

All those crossing into Georgia look exhausted, a BBC correspondent says.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63050880

[Rockstar]

Maybe an ‘accident’ happened just to make sure those Putin lovin’ Germans and Italians have absolutely no choice but to remain united with NATO instead of Russia. Russians out and Germans down because together people will lose their freedom and die when those two get together.

Biden, German chancellor present united front amid tensions with Russia over Ukraine
Biden said if Russia invaded Ukraine that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline "will end."

February 7th 2022

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/bide...ry?id=82712888

While the Biden administration has warned for weeks that Russia will face "severe" consequences if it invades Ukraine, Germany had often opted for a softer response, refusing to send military equipment to Ukraine or deploy more troops to the eastern flank. Germany had also shown reluctance to shut down Nord Stream 2, a Russian natural gas pipeline, not yet operational, that would carry gas directly to Germany, bypassing Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Biden has been rallying European allies to respond to Russia's threats in lockstep with his more aggressive plan. But meeting with Scholz Monday, the two world leaders expressed unity with their posture towards Russia.

After both leaders appeared to avoid mentioning the pipeline, under repeated questions from reporters an afternoon press conference, Biden, standing next to the German chancellor said Nord Stream 2 would not move forward if Russia invades Ukraine, in a warning to Russian President Vladimir Putin of potential economic consequences.

"If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the -- the border of Ukraine again, then there will be -- there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2," Biden said during the press conference with Scholz, who did not go as far as Biden, but insisted the U.S. and Germany remain "absolutely united.

Pressed on how he can commit to that given that Nord Stream 2 is under German control, Biden doubled down, saying, "We will -- I promise you -- we will be able to do it."

KA-BOOM

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

Maybe an ‘accident’ happened just to make sure those Putin lovin’ Germans and Italians have absolutely no choice but to remain united with NATO instead of Russia. Russians out and Germans down because together people will lose their freedom and die when those two get together.

Biden, German chancellor present united front amid tensions with Russia over Ukraine
Biden said if Russia invaded Ukraine that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline "will end."

February 7th 2022

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/bide...ry?id=82712888



KA-BOOM

My thought exactly

[Skybird]

Der Spiegel reports that the CIA had information on a planned attack on the pipelines and that Berlin was informed on this intel data.

As I said earlier, I think theoretically several suspects must be looked at. Though the propabailty for each of them is dratsically varying.

The most likely attacker of course is Russia. It has thew reigonalö access, the militry means, and it would be a continuation of an old pattern: to artificlaly create fabricate soutations in the world to which iknnocent Russia thna just happens needing to react to. in this case Russia will claim that it cannot deliver any gas because of the broken pipelines. It has cheated like this before, when claiming the Siemens turbines where not ready, had no valid papers, could not be accepted back, and so forth. I have no ideya why these world famous lioars are to obsessed by constructing such chetaign stories as alib is for their misddeds (like now the referendums as well). But I must realise that this is what they are always doing, and that this pattern is well-established. - The likelihood for Russia being behind this, is very high, and most likely they are behind the attacks indeed.

The Ukraine obviously also has an interest in preventing once and for all time to come that gas will flow through this pipeline, and it wants no money flowing from Germany to Russia. They probably have the means - I imagine military combat divers: the Ukrainian equivalent to American SEALs - , but no easy access to the Baltic, would have needed to run a deep and extensive secret operation. There are reasons speaking against it, however: they risk to seriously alienate their Western partners over their stunt if it gets unmasked. - I see the propbability for the ukriane being behind the attack as possible, but very low.

Poland was always against the pipeline, and not only due to not making deals with Russia, but due to their interest to booster their own ambition to become a supply centre for LNG gas that they planned to land in Denmark and then deliver to Poland from there it would be distributed into the Europan pipeline grid. Would have given them a controling seat to blackmail the EU, if need be, and would have given them transit fees. They also obviously have the geographical access, and certainly they have combat divers. But I think all this is no longer valid, and I also assume they would not have gone this far to realise their - outdated - plan. So: theoretically it could be Poland behind this, but the probability is very low.

Germany: it has precise knoweldge on the pipeline locations, it has capable combat divers, submarines, and saccess to the Baltic. Doe sGermany have a motive? Well, indirectly, yes. The calculation could be to solve inherent problems inj the colatiin which is/was locked down over diefrences on nulcear power, energy policies, and how to support Ukraine, and how to dela wioth Russia after the war, and this while some maybe always were eyind to just return to gas dleoiveries via the pipelines after the war. Theoretically it is possible to imagine that some power actors in this complex innerpolitical mess wanted to create a clear situation that leaves some more room for any uncertainties regarding futrure options. However, it is unlikely that an internal plot bypassed Bubble Olaf, and Bubble Olaf himself is too indifferent and cowardly to to decide a coup like this for which he could be called out if it gets revealed, also he would have preferred to, as he calls it, keep his options open instead of killing them. It is theoretically possible that Germany is behind the attack, but I see it as extremely unlikely.

The United States. Obviously, Washington is very unsatisfied with Bubble Olaf's policy, and his hesitation to deliver tanks, also, the gas dependency the Germans have enforced against all warnings had Washington in arms beyond party lines, and finally America since years tried to sell its expensive LNG gas to Europe in bigger quantities. Russia obviously as unwelcfomed comeptition and beat the US by price dumping. These days Wahsington must be worrie dbaotu what the crazy Germans will do in tue future regardign Russia, and one obviopusly does not trust Berlin blindly, and already not since many years, I think (Berlin's request to become member of the five eys club was put down, especially by Washington). Wahsington has any itnerets tere is to make sure the Germans will never consider to buy Russian gas anymore after any "deal" Putin made, and what is more ensuring to secure this potlical objecitve by simpyl making it impossible - by destrpoying the pipeline? But here again, what speaks agaisnbt it is that if this stunt becomes known, gets revealked, thsi would leasd to very serous egostratgeic irritations between Europoe and America, and I think Biden, who is more aware of Europe than Obama or Trump were, would not take such a gamble. The US has the motives (plural!), it certainly has the means, but I nevertheless think the probability of Washignton havign attackedthe pipeline is less than moderate: its low.

I point my finger at Russia, with 90+ pc confidence. It just meets their typical behavioral pattern, and all inhibitions that speak against the others suspects in case of Russia obviously do not apply.

[Catfish]

^ If it was Russia, what i honestly doubt, they would not have any advantage from this. I mean they are not delivering and selling much gas anyway anymore, so why destroy it.
Being able to deliver gas and just closing the line is much more effective than having no means to apply pressure. Especially after what Biden has said in february, I am 100 percent sure it was the US.

And if the US was it, this is blackmail.

[Skybird]

^ Putin is not as ice-cold rational (and realistic) anymore as he once has been, he has become desperate by now, and irrational, and I am not the first suspecting that he changed by personality over the Covid years and their isolation. Maybe he wanted just revenge. By now he must have realised that in february he made a cataclysmic error. Now he wants wioth his head thrpough the wall, knowing that if he is not successful with that, he is dead.

Mind you, they torpedoed gas deliveries already before: by refusing to take back that gas turbine, so your argument they want to sell gas is not valid anymore. Putin also calculate that if the dissatisfaction in germany grows, public opinion will turn against the official policy of the government, and Germany becoming unstable. So this is another reason why Putin does not want to sell us gas.

He even burns it near that pipeline entry in Russia, near the Finnish border!


Putin now reminds me of Hitler in the final weeks. "If the Germans are too weak to give me the victory I demand from them, they are weka scum and do not deserve to survive me!" Well, Putin thinks the same about Russians, obviously. I read they have a word in Russia now, for those poor men getting sacked to get killed at the front. Translated it means "gravification" or "gravificator", it describes a living man send to the war to get turned into a grave, or means to make graves out of men.

[August]

Originally Posted by Catfish

^ If it was Russia, what i honestly doubt, they would not have any advantage from this. I mean they are not delivering and selling much gas anyway anymore, so why destroy it.

If the US was it, this is blackmail.

Blackmail? If it is it sorta violates rule #1 of extortion, ie: "Don't destroy your leverage before the mark complies".

On the other hand the idea that Russia did this to provide a ready made excuse to keep the spigot turned off seems to me pretty reasonable.

[mapuc]

There are Danes who is afraid that Denmark will be involved in a war with Russia.

They have gathered the info we have been told throughout the days-and this has made them convince that Denmark will soon be at war with Russia.

I said to some of them-They should calm down-Yes it's sabotage-Everything is pointing in this direction-Who's behind it-Well I say it's a false flag while others say it's USA. But this is far from enough to start a war.

Markus

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by August

Blackmail? If it is it sorta violates rule #1 of extortion, ie: "Don't destroy your leverage before the mark complies".

The US effectively destroyed any russian leverage that was left via the Nordstream pipes.
Leaving the US with a lot more leverage via LNG deliveries.

On the other hand the idea that Russia did this to provide a ready made excuse to keep the spigot turned off seems to me pretty reasonable.

If Russia just kept turning it off (without destroying it) it would make a bit more sense, don't you think so?
They could open the tap anytime if the EU states complied, now there is no leverage left.
And as Rockstar quoted, it was even announced.