Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Dargo]

Poland will supply Ukraine with 56 Krab howitzers, this will be in the largest contract between Warsaw and Kyiv in 30 years which was announced by Polish Ministry of Defense. The firing range of howitzers is about 40 kilometers. 18 howitzers have already been sent to Ukraine.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Skybird

FOCUS:
[I]Ralph Thiele, Chairman of the Political-Military Society and President of EuroDefense Germany, takes a critical view of Ukraine's possible accession to the EU and NATO. [...]."
It's also problematic, he said, because it contradicts the principled ideas of the EU and NATO. "The basic idea in neither the EU nor NATO is, after all, that we take in problem children," Thiele explains. There is something "psychological about putting Ukraine on the list of candidates. But there is factual work to be done to bring it into a receptive state."

The principled ideas of the EU are not that of NATO, i take it when the war stops Ukraine will be allowed to join NATO. Which maybe is why Putin will not want it to end.
EU is a different question, joining or not the EU wil spend some money to help Ukraine build up its infrastructure again.

[Catfish]

I heard Claudia Roth has visited Kyiv yesterday, and another russian general was killed.
Must have underestimated her

[Skybird]

I do not take it for granted that Ukraine, if it survives the war as a nation, automatically will be welcomed into NATO. That would be a decision that gets not vetoed by a single memberstate, and the structural problems that may concern the EU, also apply for NATO.

[Catfish]

Some possible outcomes
1. The war will not stop until Putin has "deleted" (as he said) the whole of Ukraine, which then belongs to Russia.
2. There is a truce and Ukraine does not join NATO, in which case Russia will attack again in 4-5 years.
3. There is a truce and without being at war anymore Ukraine is able to join NATO. In which case Russia will not try to attack it.
4. Russia is driven out from Ukraine, but keeps the Crimea. Russia will try to get the rest of Ukraine in 4-5 years.
5. Putin is so mad that he will start a nuclear war against the west.

[Skybird]

^ That are reasons why you want it in NATO. But I was more about the likelihood of this becoming real.

Oligarchs, corruption, mafia need to get brought down down in the Ukraine. As far as we can, we should help here, but in principle, that is the Ukrainians' very own job, naturally.

During this time phase, we can and should also help to arm it up. But critical technology can only be delivered ,of course, if corruption and the mafia play no role anymore. We do not want our modern miltech ending up on the international black market - or in Russian or Chinese laboratories. And we do not want our aid payments ending up in the pockets of dubious men in the shades.

If these conditions are met, we can think about giving Ukraine NATO mmemberhsip. It Turkey agbrees. And Hungary. And maybe a coupel of others who will use the oppoprutnity to blackmail thealliance for theri own advanatges.

Concerns on Russian interest are exactly not on my mind anymore. Russia has lost any right to demand from us to care for its face, its interests, its opinion of us. So, what Russia thinks and wants I would not base decisions on anymore. But of course we must always try to guess what their reacitons will be to our actions. Anticipation. And for these we then must actively prepare. That is not he same like appeasing them and not doing what they could feel "provoked" by. We do our thing. But we prepare ourselves just in case somebody does not like what we do. But doing it anyway we must, should and hopefully will. Evertyhing else is an unsubstantial bluff by us. And if we get called for cards, we lose. So, no bluffing, please, but robust fundaments in preparing for the worst case. BTW, most times Russia would win a game of bluffs against Europe anyway. So, using bluffs only is not recommended. We must be able to set up threats - and being capable to fill them with all life and realsie them, if need be. Currently, we are very far away from that.

[August]

Originally Posted by Catfish

I heard Claudia Roth has visited Kyiv yesterday, and another russian general was killed.
Must have underestimated her

[Jimbuna]

Russia dismisses concerns that its invasion of Ukraine has created a global food crisis.

Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov holds talks in Turkey as pressure mounts on Russia to end its blockade of Ukrainian ports.

Italy's foreign minister says "blocking grain exports means holding hostage and condemning to death millions of children, women and men"

Lavrov says the onus is on Ukraine to de-mine waters around its ports to let ships set sail safely.

But Ukraine fears this could make it more vulnerable to attacks from the sea - and says any moves to unfreeze its ports must not hinder its security.

Meanwhile, more than 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers - captured in Mariupol - have been transferred to Russia, according to Russian state media.

Ukrainian defences are "holding" in the key eastern city of Severodonetsk, UK military intelligences says, despite attacks from Russians in three directions.

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

The Ukrainian military opted to reinforce the Sievierodonetsk garrison and continue holding the ground in costly urban warfare, where Russia struggles to maintain its combat advantage over Ukraine. According to experts, the successful Ukrainian counterattacks are a new indication of declining Russian combat power, despite the Kremlin’s massive concentration of forces in the area. But heavy fighting continues and while Russia is running out of steam, the situation in the area remains very close to critical.

The best way for Ukraine to combat the Russians in the Donbas is to take dispersed action in the event of a Russian attack on the ground, it is the best way to stop that Russian steamroller. At least it's better than waiting in your trench so always attacking somewhere else and delivering blows with small units around that Russian steamroller, Ukraine must be mobile. Compare it to an elephant being attacked by a swarm of bees.

After Sievierodonetsk the Russians need to take Lysychansk they must advance over open terrain, then cross the Siverskyi Donets River and advance to ground 150 meters higher even with artillery and air support that's a real challenge, especially against an entrenched defender.

[Dargo]

Russia demands grain shipments from Ukraine be checked for weapons Russia is making demands before it allows grain shipments from Ukraine across the Black Sea. For example, Foreign Minister Lavrov wants grain shipments to be checked for weapons. The Kremlin is also demanding that the West ease sanctions against Russia. President Putin insists that these sanctions are the reason that grain supplies to the world market are blocked. But the trade in raw materials for food is not covered by the sanctions the West has imposed against Russia.

President of the European Council Charles Michel underlined this again today. "The Kremlin is using food supplies as a weapon and wrapping its actions in Soviet-style lies," the president said.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Russia demands grain shipments from Ukraine be checked for weapons Russia is making demands before it allows grain shipments from Ukraine across the Black Sea. For example, Foreign Minister Lavrov wants grain shipments to be checked for weapons. The Kremlin is also demanding that the West ease sanctions against Russia. President Putin insists that these sanctions are the reason that grain supplies to the world market are blocked. But the trade in raw materials for food is not covered by the sanctions the West has imposed against Russia.

President of the European Council Charles Michel underlined this again today. "The Kremlin is using food supplies as a weapon and wrapping its actions in Soviet-style lies," the president said.

Your post reminded me of Jims post, which are about the same issue

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...postcount=4448

Markus

[Dargo]

Russian soldiers in Ukraine are shocked by the summer heat they experience in their autumn uniforms.

Ukrainian climate an additional enemy is the Ukrainian summer, a pruning hot season with the long slow shudder of a sweltering wind. There is hardly any cooling, labor costs much more energy as a result, soldiers must rest on grass and grain that glows with the sun. Ukraine lends itself very poorly to a major offensive. In short, Russian troops are going to have a rough time this summer. ~Curzio Malaparte (1898-1957)

[August]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Russia demands grain shipments from Ukraine be checked for weapons Russia is making demands before it allows grain shipments from Ukraine across the Black Sea. For example, Foreign Minister Lavrov wants grain shipments to be checked for weapons. The Kremlin is also demanding that the West ease sanctions against Russia. President Putin insists that these sanctions are the reason that grain supplies to the world market are blocked. But the trade in raw materials for food is not covered by the sanctions the West has imposed against Russia.

President of the European Council Charles Michel underlined this again today. "The Kremlin is using food supplies as a weapon and wrapping its actions in Soviet-style lies," the president said.

They're not even good at it or it would be plausible. We're talking about grain exports, not imports. How many weapons does Russia think Ukraine will be smuggling out of the country?

[Jimbuna]