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#1 | |
Ace of the Deep
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Personally I'm a little concerned, just in the geo-political sense for the purpose of this thread, with the escalating situation there. Superficially this appears to be just the usual stepped up retaliation against the Palestians, with a bit of a swipe at Lebannon thrown in for good measure. However, I'm seeing (I may elaborate on this later if nobody else does first) signs that it may expand to include Syria and possibly even Iran (much less likely but I'll get into that later too). Could this become another 6 day war? Doubtful, Israel is not the new nation it was then and is far stronger while the other players have grown relatively weaker and more fractious, so a repeat wouldn't even last 6 days. The only broader threat lies in the Western powers or Pakistan becoming involved in the conflict, and this I think is a possibly (a small one, but possible) if it were to extend in earnesr (ie: all out war) to Syria and Iran. But who knows, probably it is nothing more than the usual ME jousting. :hmm:
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What can you do against the lunatic who is more intelligent than yourself, who gives your arguments a fair hearing and then simply persists in his lunacy? -- George Orwell |
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Über Mom
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Israel left every last centimeter of Gaza last summer, at the expense of destroying vibrant communities, expelling 8000 Israelis and rippping apart the country's morale and political system. Since then the Palis have done nothing but lob rockets into Israel town and communities, stock up Gaza with more weapons and munitions than were smuggled in there over the last 40 years, and continually tried infiltrating into Israel to kill our soldiers and citizens. Israel withdrew completely from Lebanon 6 years ago and foolishly allowed the Iranian and Syrian backed Hazb'Allah to stock 10s of thousands of rockets, kidnap and kill our soliders and fire at them when Iran or Syria need something to distract international pressure on them. Now, our soldiers are killed and kidnapped by terrorists infiltrating from both Gaza and Lebanon and you stupidly think this is about "retaliation"? ![]() |
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#3 | ||
Rear Admiral
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#4 | |
Planesman
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#5 | ||
Machinist's Mate
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Same principle apply to the so called "prevention war", i.e. start a war to prevent an attack to your country. |
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#6 |
Planesman
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IMO this cannot be classified as preventive war.
Hezbollah has been firing rockets at Israel for quite some time and Israeli soldiers have been kidnapped. This, in my book, is an hostile aggression and one way to face an hostile aggression is through military force. Moreover, if there is proof that foreign states (like Iran and Syria) are supporting Hezbollah in their attack on Israel, this would make them equally responsible of the attacks and, IMO, legitimate targets.
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#7 |
Soaring
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The risk that this spreads is still low, imo, as long as Hizbollah does not come up with a new weaponry that does really serious damage to Israeli cities. The two strikes on Haifa and - what was that other city? - may be a hint in that direction, or not, who knows.
I think what they really are after is to create a situation where they must not risk of needing to negotiate with a terrorist organisation in government. I think Israel currently is not willing to attack Syria in an all-out war, nor does Syria wish to be drawn into a war with Israel - they know their equipment is too obsolete to have a chance against the IDF. Iran does not want to attract any further hostile attraction, so thta it can complete it'S nuclear program untouched, and in silence. Currently I think it is most likely that sooner or later this hot issue cools down, and the soldiers (which are no longer the real cause) will return. secret diplomacy is currently on way, Israel has contacted both Iran and Syria via Germany. If the situation remains hot while Hizbollah demonstrates the ability to strike Israeli city with missiles of this new kind like Haifa and that second city, it is possible that Israel will occupy more or less of Lebanon and tries to annihilate it (the Hezbollah, not Lebanon - there is not much left anyway). If that can be successful must be doubted. But for the most it all is about avoiding negotations with a Hamas-led government. Olmert also seems to have left a prime directive of Israel, which in the past was to accept prisoner exchanges on the ratio of 1 : several hundreds to get back some of it's people. This directive seems to have been given up, or at least put on ice. No, there most probably will not be a great-scale international war in the ME, currently. Probability for that is less than 5:95, I think.
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If you feel nuts, consult an expert. Last edited by Skybird; 07-18-06 at 05:00 AM. |
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#8 | ||||||||||||
Ace of the Deep
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Let me see if I can encapsulate the current events in a more balanced nutshell (curtesy of the BBC): http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5179434.stm All quotes are taken from that article: Quote:
Background: Hezbollah was founded in Lebanon in 1982 with the purpose to fight the IDF that at that time, and for 22 years in total, occupied Lebanon. They are considered a legitimate political party in Lebanon, which is a democratic country, and are supported, at least politically if not militarily and finacially (this is disputed) by both Iran and Syria. Of Lebanon's Parliment, the civilian wing of Hezbollah holds 14 out of 128 seats and is responsible for several development and civil service functions - but it does not control the government of Lebanon (half of Lebanon's Parlimentary seats are in fact held by Christians). Lebanon itself, though still recovering from decades of war and occupation, has been recovering and its probably one of the few democracies in the ME and among the most free (as far as freedom goes in that part of the world). Anyway, this is background. Summary of July 15th: Lebanese militants launch rockets at an Israel town and outposts; guerillas kidnap two IDF soldiers; ie: a border skirmish conducted by militants without the authorization of the Lebanese government. Israel responds by declaring it an "act" of war and invades Lebanon. Quote:
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How does bombing the Lebanese airport get back Israel's kidnapped soldiers, and is the overwhelming use of Israeli military power as used in the bombing and invasion of the war torn fledging democracy that is Lebanon a proportional response to the actions of a handful of Lebanese guerillas? Quote:
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No stirring of the cauldron that is the Middle East to be seen here, nope. And despite the wishes of the UNSC - the US, UK, France, Germany, and Russia - it is only Israel's right to use the full force of its military to kill Lebanese civilians and destroy the country's infrastructure, and to hell with what the rest of the world thinks. Quote:
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Israel has to be the bully though and show it has the bigger dick. Screw trying to work peacefully with Lebanon toward a solution to the crisis, screw inserting covert special forces on a search and rescue mission, and screw restraint and proportionality. After all, nothing puts a stop to terrorism better than destroying one of the most progressive and democratic countries in the region and terrorizing and killing its inhabitants through the full might of the IDF. Yep, that'll teach them not to mess with Israel, since the prior war and 22 year occupation hasn't taught every single Lebanese citizen that you don't mess with Israel. You will reap tomorrow what you sow today.
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What can you do against the lunatic who is more intelligent than yourself, who gives your arguments a fair hearing and then simply persists in his lunacy? -- George Orwell |
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#9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Über Mom
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Border skirmishes and kidnapping another country's soldiers are an act of war. All that quoting for nothing! ![]() Does it get more exciting than this? Let's see....................... Quote:
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Oooh, the poor warn-torn fledgling democracy - controlled by Syria and Iran. Oooooooh I'm gonna cry! Boo hoo! ![]() Who said anything about proportional, the stupidest leftist word on the Internet at the moment. Oh, was that a barb? Sorry. I understand that aiports are sometimes used by military forces. But that's just lil' ol' me doing some fancy thinking there. Moving right along............... Quote:
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If the shoe fits. And look at all the hypocrites. US? Russia? We don't come near their massive and non-specific attacks when they deem them necesary (Iraq, Afghanistan, Chechnya) As for France, they can go to hell. ![]() Don't tell us how to take care of ourselves. You've caused enough damage already. Quote:
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You've got the wrong soldier. But why trouble yourself with facts and accuracy. Quote:
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Thank G-d normal people do not want to live in your lunatic world. Quote:
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#10 | ||
Über Mom
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![]() Must be going. If there's any more BBC blah-blah, it'll have to wait till tomorrow. |
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#11 | |
Mate
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#12 | |
Silent Hunter
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http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/faq....ules3_faq_item |
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#13 | ||||||||||
Ace of the Deep
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Okay, then if they were controlled by Syria and Iran then where is the Iranian and Syrian response? Nowhere to be seen because Lebanon is an independent democracy while both Syria and Iran are neither. That isn't to say Lebanon doesn't have strong political and economic ties with its neighbours - but what country doesn't? That doesn't equate "control". Quote:
Two months later police discovered the location of the kidnappers who were holding the first hostage, who was still alive, and his release was negotiated. As a condition of the hostages release, we granted safe passage for 5 of the terrorists to Cuba, after obtaining permission from Fidel Castro. Over time various other terrorists associated with crimes committed by the FLQ were caught, tried, convicted, and imprisoned. And that was the end of the FLQ as the events of the October Crisis, combined with the apprehension/deportation of its most prominent members eroded any sympathy for their cause or efforts to recruit new members. I bring this up to illustrate the concept of proportionality and why it is important; during the October Crisis the Canadian government's actions accomplished the release of the surviving hostage and removed the perpetrators/ring leaders from our society but in a manner that did not create support for the FLQ - in fact, its moderation in the face of their extremism was a factor in the FLQ's demise. Would the movement have died though if we had responded by arbitrarily rounding up random Quebecers and shooting them in Town's Square, proclaiming we would continue to do so until our hostages were released? Of course not, aside from being morally abominable it would have only stirred up outrage in Quebec and played right into the FLQ's hands. We would never have gotten the hostage back and only incited the FLQ to commit worse crimes and for more people to flock to their ranks. By the way, are you familiar with the 1942 assassination of Reinhard Heydrich bya pair of Czech nationals and the events that followed? At any rate, Heydrich was the administrator of occupied Bavaria and Moravia and his assassination did not go over well with Hitler who instructed the SS and Gestapo to wade through blood to find the killers, and wade through blood they did. The village of Lidice was one casualty of the collective punishment meted out by his underlings, who completedly destroyed the village and murdered its 340 men, women, and children. But then being fascists, what little use would they have for leftest concepts handed out on the internet like "proportionality"? I mean the internet didn't even exist back then. Curiously enough though Stalin, who is as extreme on the left as you go, didn't seem to have much use for proportionality either, as he sent millions off to die in the Gulags for such crimes as political or religious dissent. But then the internet didn't exist back then either, so we can excuse his behaviour since proportionality would have been a foreign concept to people back then. But I digress. Quote:
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#1 is a red herring. Israel occupied Lebanon for 22 years and Hezobollah formed for the very purpose of fighting the IDF that was occupying Lebanon. And if we go back to the time of the British Mandate, your own history isn't so clean when Israeli militant factions were attacking the British in what was then Palestine while the British were busy fighting the Nazis in Europe - and this was before Israel formally even existed. Sure Israel is no longer occupying Lebanon now, but is it realistic to expect that every militant in the country would simply pack up their weapons and take up farming only 6 years after the IDF has left, and forgetting all of the anger and resentment that a 22 year occupation would fuel? Not really. Further, this party occupies only 11% of Parliment so they are hardly representative of the Lebanese government, let alone the entire nation of Lebanon. Then there is the whole freedom of speech thing, and the fact that it even extends to members of parliment for whom rhetoric is part of the job description. #2 As to the weapons arguement, that is another red herring. Rockets are not terribly sophisticated, and the U.S. sells arms that really are sophisticated to such progressive nations as Saudi Arabia, while democracies like Russia and France do extensive business with both Syria and Iran so what impossible standard are you trying to hold Lebanon to? #3 Again, an act by guerillas for which any case has been made that their actions were ordered, or even on behalf, of the Lebanese government. I mentioned the FLQ, which at one point in their existance - before the plot was discovered - had planned to blow up the Statue of Liberty. Fortunately this did not happen because I like France, the US, NY, and the Statue of Liberty. But suppose the FLQ had succeeded - what do you think the appropriate US response would have been? Certainly a lot of Americans would have been justifiably pissed off, but would they have been justified to bomb and invade Canada? No, nor would they have (I have enough respect for my American neighbours to give them the benefit of the doubt). Quote:
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What can you do against the lunatic who is more intelligent than yourself, who gives your arguments a fair hearing and then simply persists in his lunacy? -- George Orwell Last edited by scandium; 07-18-06 at 03:41 PM. |
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#14 |
Stowaway
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errr...Scandium...I didn't read all your post, but AV says "Israel bombed the Lebanese airport because they were using it for it's military forces"...and you answer "What airforce?".
![]() See this is all pub talk...cos if it was serious...you'd have people wetting themselves from laughter. You do realise you can pack militia into an Airbus 330? Or planes carrying weapons from Iran can land and arm terrorists that way? If I was heading Israel, I'd take Gazza (back), Palestine, Lebanon and Syria...then I'd sue for peace through the UN. Why not? It's a good idea!!! ![]() ![]() |
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#15 | |
Ace of the Deep
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Bombing their international airport served no military purpose whatsoever. Period. Lebanon, after decades of civil war and occupation has been finally beginning to achieve the very stability, democracy, and some small measure of prosperity and human rights that the U.S. claimed it was intent on bringing to Iraq and now thanks to a handful of extremists and the Israel and its IDF, this could all be for naught. And what does the US, which pretends to be so concerned about democracy in the ME say or do about it? Why it unconditially supports Israel of course. "Democracries don't go to war with each other." -- G.W. Bush
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What can you do against the lunatic who is more intelligent than yourself, who gives your arguments a fair hearing and then simply persists in his lunacy? -- George Orwell |
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